Table 2: Stream flow measurement at the gauge station Vernagtbach

From 1974 to 1982 repeated tracer tests using fluorescent dyes were carried out in the highly glaciated drainage basin of Vernagtbach. These tests enabled the quantitative determination of the runoff in the forefield of the Vernagtferner, the calculation of travel times of the stream water and estimations of the relative contributions to the entire runoff originating from individual streams. In addition, tracer tests were carried out in the firn area of the glacier resulting in data concerning the storage and travel time of meltwater inside the glacier.

(Table 1) Two-way travel times and depths of picked internal reflection horizons (IRHs) of the NGRIP ice core

During the summer of 2003, a ground-penetrating radar survey around the North Greenland Icecore Project (NorthGRIP) deep ice-core drilling site (75°06' N, 42°20' W; 2957 m a.s.l.) was carried out using a shielded 250 MHz radar system. The drill site is located on an ice divide, roughly 300 km north-northwest of the summit of the Greenland ice sheet. More than 430 km of profiles were measured, covering a 10 km by 10 km area, with a grid centered on the drilling location, and eight profiles extending beyond this grid. Seven internal horizons within the upper 120 m of the ice sheet were continuously tracked, containing the last 400 years of accumulation history. Based on the age-depth and density-depth distribution of the deep core, the internal layers have been dated and the regional and temporal distribution of accumulation rate in the vicinity of NorthGRIP has been derived. The distribution of accumulation shows a relatively smoothly increasing trend from east to west from 145 kg/m**2/a to 200 kg/m**2/a over a distance of 50 km across the ice divide. The general trend is overlain by small-scale variations on the order of 2.5 kg/m**2/a/km, i.e. around 1.5% of the accumulation mean. The temporal variations of the seven periods defined by the seven tracked isochrones are on the order of +-4% of the mean of the last 400 years, i.e. at NorthGRIP ±7 kg/m**2/a. If the regional accumulation pattern has been stable for the last several thousand years during the Holocene, and ice flow has been comparable to today, advective effects along the particle trajectory upstream of NorthGRIP do not have a significant effect on the interpretation of climatically induced changes in accumulation rates derived from the deep ice core over the last 10 kyr.

Probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice

We introduce two probabilistic, data-driven models that predict a ship's speed and the situations where a ship is probable to get stuck in ice based on the joint effect of ice features such as the thickness and concentration of level ice, ice ridges, rafted ice, moreover ice compression is considered. To develop the models to datasets were utilized. First, the data from the Automatic Identification System about the performance of a selected ship was used. Second, a numerical ice model HELMI, developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute, provided information about the ice field. The relations between the ice conditions and ship movements were established using Bayesian learning algorithms. The case study presented in this paper considers a single and unassisted trip of an ice-strengthened bulk carrier between two Finnish ports in the presence of challenging ice conditions, which varied in time and space. The obtained results show good prediction power of the models. This means, on average 80% for predicting the ship's speed within specified bins, and above 90% for predicting cases where a ship may get stuck in ice. We expect this new approach to facilitate the safe and effective route selection problem for ice-covered waters where the ship performance is reflected in the objective function.

Sediment organic matter, grain size, and results of prediction models from northern North Atlantic and Arctic Seas

Sediment samples and hydrographic conditions were studied at 28 stations around Iceland. At these sites, Conductivity-Temperature-Depth (CTD) casts were conducted to collect hydrographic data and multicorer casts were conductd to collect data on sediment characteristics including grain size distribution, carbon and nitrogen concentration, and chloroplastic pigment concentration. A total of 14 environmental predictors were used to model sediment characteristics around Iceland on regional geographic space. For these, two approaches were used: Multivariate Adaptation Regression Splines (MARS) and randomForest regression models. RandomForest outperformed MARS in predicting grain size distribution. MARS models had a greater tendency to over- and underpredict sediment values in areas outside the environmental envelope defined by the training dataset. We provide first GIS layers on sediment characteristics around Iceland, that can be used as predictors in future models. Although models performed well, more samples, especially from the shelf areas, will be needed to improve the models in future.

Ages and two-way travel times of ODP Sites 180-1109, 180-1115 and 180-1118

Synthetic seismograms are constructed from check shot-corrected velocity and density measurements collected during Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 180 at Sites 1109, 1115, and 1118. The synthetic seismograms facilitate direct correlation of a coincident multichannel seismic (MCS) profile with borehole data collected at the three sites. The MCS data and the synthetic seismograms correlate very well, with most major reflectors successfully reproduced in the synthetics. Our results enable a direct calibration of the MCS data in terms of age, paleoenvironment, and subsidence history. Seismic reflectors are time correlative within stratigraphic resolution but are often observed to result from different lithologies across strike. Our results facilitate the extrapolation of the sedimentation history into an unsampled section of Site 1118 and enable a full correlation between the three sites using all the data collected during ODP Leg 180. This study forms the foundation for regionalizing the site data to the northern margin of the Woodlark Basin, where the transition from continental rifting to seafloor spreading is taking place.