Distribution models for mountain plant species: The value of elevation

The climatic conditions of mountain habitats are greatly influenced by topography. Large differences in microclimate occur with small changes in elevation, and this complex interaction is an important determinant of mountain plant distributions. In spite of this, elevation is not often considered as a relevant predictor in species distribution models (SDMs) for mountain plants. Here, we evaluated the importance of including elevation as a predictor in SDMs for mountain plant species. We generated two sets of SDMs for each of 73 plant species that occur in the Pacific Northwest of North America; one set of models included elevation as a predictor variable and the other set did not. AUC scores indicated that omitting elevation as a predictor resulted in a negligible reduction of model performance. However, further analysis revealed that the omission of elevation resulted in large over-predictions of species' niche breadths-this effect was most pronounced for species that occupy the highest elevations. In addition, the inclusion of elevation as a predictor constrained the effects of other predictors that superficially affected the outcome of the models generated without elevation. Our results demonstrate that the inclusion of elevation as a predictor variable improves the quality of SDMs for high-elevation plant species. Because of the negligible AUC score penalty for over-predicting niche breadth, our results support the notion that AUC scores alone should not be used as a measure of model quality. More generally, our results illustrate the importance of selecting biologically relevant predictor variables when constructing SDMs.

Appendix 7: List of species with their distribution ranges restricted to the corresponding phytogeographical region

Understanding species distribution patterns and the corresponding environmental determinants is a crucial step in the development of effective strategies for the conservation and management of plant communities and ecosystems. Therefore, a central prerequisite is the biogeographical and macroecological analysis of factors and processes that determine contemporary, potential, as well as future geographic distribution of species. This thesis has been conducted in the framework of the BIOMAPS-BIOTA project at the Nees Institute of Biodiversity of Plants, which was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). The study investigated patterns of plants species richness and phytogeographic regions under contemporary environmental conditions and forecasted future climate change in the area of West Africa covering five countries: Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and Togo. Firstly, geographic patterns of vascular plant species richness have been depicted at a relatively fine spatial resolution based on the potential distribution of 3,393 species. Species richness is closely related to the steep climatic gradient existing in the region with a high concentration of species in the most humid areas in the south and decreases towards the northern drier areas. The investigation of the effectiveness of the existing network of protected areas shows an overall good coverage of species in the study area. However, the proportion of covered species is considerably lower at national extent for some countries, thus calling for more protected areas in order to cover adequately a maximum number of plants species in these countries. Secondly, based on the potential distribution range of vascular plant species, seven phytogeographic regions have been delineated that broadly reflect the vegetation zones as defined by White (1983). However notable differences to the delineation of White (1983) occur at the margins of some regions. Corresponding to a general southward shifted of all regions. And expansion of the Sahel vegetation zone is observed in the north, while the rainforest zone is decreased in the very south.This is alarming since the rainforest shelters a high number of species and a high proportion of range-restricted or endemic species, despite their relatively small extent compared to the other regions. Finally, the evaluation of the potential impact of climate change on plant species richness in the study area, results in a severe loss of future suitable habitat for up to 50% of species per grid cell, particularly in the rainforest region. Moreover, the analysis of the possible shift of phytogeographic regions shows in general a strong deterioration of the West African rainforest. In contrast the drier areas are expanding continuously, although a slight gain in species number can be observed in some particular regions. The overall lesson to retain from the results of this study is that the West African rainforest should be fixed as a high priority area for the conservation of biodiversity of plants, since it is subject to severe contemporary and projected future threats.

Ensemble prediction distribution maps of macroalgae for current conditions and four climate change scenarios and high resultion bathymetry for Potter Cove, WAP, Antarctica

Species distribution models (SDM) predict species occurrence based on statistical relationships with environmental conditions. The R-package biomod2 which includes 10 different SDM techniques and 10 different evaluation methods was used in this study. Macroalgae are the main biomass producers in Potter Cove, King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), Antarctica, and they are sensitive to climate change factors such as suspended particulate matter (SPM). Macroalgae presence and absence data were used to test SDMs suitability and, simultaneously, to assess the environmental response of macroalgae as well as to model four scenarios of distribution shifts by varying SPM conditions due to climate change. According to the averaged evaluation scores of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and True scale statistics (TSS) by models, those methods based on a multitude of decision trees such as Random Forest and Classification Tree Analysis, reached the highest predictive power followed by generalized boosted models (GBM) and maximum-entropy approaches (Maxent). The final ensemble model used 135 of 200 calculated models (TSS > 0.7) and identified hard substrate and SPM as the most influencing parameters followed by distance to glacier, total organic carbon (TOC), bathymetry and slope. The climate change scenarios show an invasive reaction of the macroalgae in case of less SPM and a retreat of the macroalgae in case of higher assumed SPM values.

Stable isotope and geochemical record of sediments from the Bering Sea

here is controversy over the role of marine methane hydrates in atmospheric methane concentrations and climate change during the last glacial period. In this study of two sediment cores from the southeast Bering Sea (700 m and 1467 m water depth), we identify multiple episodes during the last glacial period of intense methane flux reaching the seafloor. Within the uncertainty of the radiocarbon age model, the episodes are contemporaneous in the two cores and have similar timing and duration as Dansgaard-Oeschger events. The episodes are marked by horizons of sediment containing 13C-depleted authigenic carbonate minerals; 13C-depleted archaeal and bacterial lipids, which resemble those found in ANME-1 type anaerobic methane oxidizing microbial consortia; and changes in the abundance and species distribution of benthic foraminifera. The similar timing and isotopic composition of the authigenic carbonates in the two cores is consistent with a region-wide increase in the upward flux of methane bearing fluids. This study is the first observation outside Santa Barbara Basin of pervasive, repeated methane flux in glacial sediments. However, contrary to the "Clathrate Gun Hypothesis" (Kennett et al., 2003), these coring sites are too deep for methane hydrate destabilization to be the cause, implying that a much larger part of the ocean's sedimentary methane may participate in climate or carbon cycle feedback at millennial timescales. We speculate that pulses of methane in these opal-rich sediments could be caused by the sudden release of overpressure in pore fluids that builds up gradually with silica diagenesis. The release could be triggered by seismic shaking on the Aleutian subduction zone caused by hydrostatic pressure increase associated with sea level rise at the start of interstadials.

Late Quaternary planktonic foraminifera of ODP Hole 175-1087A

Planktonic foraminiferal assemblages from the upper Pleistocene part of Hole 1087A (0 to 12.1 meters below seafloor) are investigated to assess the role of global and local climate changes on surface circulation in the southern Benguela region. The benthic stable isotope record indicates that the studied interval is representative of the last four climatic cycles, that is, down to marine isotope Stage (MIS) 12. The species assemblages bear a clear transitional to subpolar character, with Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (d), Globorotalia inflata, and Globigerina bulloides, in order of decreasing abundance, as the dominant taxa. This species association presently characterizes the mixing domain of old upwelled and open ocean waters, seaward of the Benguela upwelling cells. Abundance variation of the dominant foraminiferal species roughly follows a glacial-interglacial pattern down to MIS 8, suggesting an alternation of upwelling strength and associated seaward extension of the belt of upwelled water as a response to global climate changes. This pattern is interrupted from ~250 ka down to MIS 12, where the phase relationship with global climate is ill defined and might be interpreted as a local response of the southern Benguela region to the mid-Brunhes event. Of particular interest is a single pulse of newly upwelled waters at the location of Site 1087 during early MIS 9 as indicated by a peak abundance of sinistral N. pachyderma (s). Variable input of warm, salty Indian Ocean thermocline waters into the southeast Atlantic, a key component of the Atlantic heat conveyor, is indicated by abundance changes of the tropical taxon Globorotalia menardii. From this tracer, we suggest that interocean exchange was hardly interrupted throughout the last 460 k.y., but was most effective at glacial terminations, particularly during Terminations I and II, as well as during the upper part of MIS 12. This maximum input of Indian Ocean waters around the southern tip of Africa is associated with the reseeding of G. menardii in the tropical Atlantic.

Plant distribution and climate data across western North America

Using an extensive network of occurrence records for 293 plant species collected over the past 40 years across a climatically diverse geographic section of western North America, we find that plant species distributions were just as likely to shift upwards (i.e., towards higher elevations) as downward (i.e., towards lower elevations) - despite consistent warming across the study area. Although there was no clear directional response to climate warming across the entire study area, there was significant region-to region- variation in responses (i.e. from as many as 73% to as few as32% of species shifting upward or downward). To understand the factors that might be controlling region-specific distributional shifts, we explored the relationship between the direction of change in distribution limits and the nature of recent climate change. We found that the direction of distribution limit shifts was explained by an interaction between the rate of change in local summer temperatures and seasonal precipitation. Specifically, species shifted upward at their upper elevational limit when snowfall declined at slower rates and minimum temperatures increased. By contrast, species shifted upwards at their lower elevation limit when maximum temperatures increased or both temperature and precipitation decreased. Our results suggest that future species' elevational distribution shifts will be complex, depending on the interaction between seasonal temperature and precipitation change.

Mercury species concentrations near Casey station, Antarctica and along the SR3 CASO-GEOTRACES transect

We present here the first mercury speciation study in the water column of the Southern Ocean, using a high-resolution south-to-north section (27 stations from 65.50°S to 44.00°S) with up to 15 depths (0-4440 m) between Antarctica and Tasmania (Australia) along the 140°E meridian. In addition, in order to explore the role of sea ice in Hg cycling, a study of mercury speciation in the 'snow-sea ice-seawater' continuum was conducted at a coastal site, near the Australian Casey station (66.40°S; 101.14°E). In the open ocean waters, total Hg (Hg(T)) concentrations varied from 0.63 to 2.76 pmol/L with 'transient-type' vertical profiles and a latitudinal distribution suggesting an atmospheric mercury source south of the Southern Polar Front (SPF) and a surface removal north of the Subantartic Front (SAF). Slightly higher mean Hg(T) concentrations (1.35 ± 0.39 pmol/L) were measured in Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) compared to Antarctic Intermediate water (AAIW) (1.15 ± 0.22 pmol/L). Labile Hg (Hg(R)) concentrations varied from 0.01 to 2.28 pmol/L, with a distribution showing that the Hg(T) enrichment south of the SPF consisted mainly of Hg(R) (67 ± 23%), whereas, in contrast, the percentage was half that in surface waters north of PFZ (33 ± 23%). Methylated mercury species (MeHg(T)) concentrations ranged from 0.02 to 0.86 pmol/L. All vertical MeHg(T) profiles exhibited roughly the same pattern, with low concentrations observed in the surface layer and increasing concentrations with depth up to an intermediate depth maximum. As for Hg(T), low mean MeHg(T) concentrations were associated with AAIW, and higher ones with AABW. The maximum of MeHg(T) concentration at each station was systematically observed within the oxygen minimum zone, with a statistically significant MeHg(T) vs Apparent Oxygen Utilization (AOU) relationship (p <0.001). The proportion of Hg(T) as methylated species was lower than 5% in the surface waters, around 50% in deep waters below 1000 m, reaching a maximum of 78% south of the SPF. At Casey coastal station Hg(T) and Hg(R) concentrations found in the 'snow-sea ice-seawater' continuum were one order of magnitude higher than those measured in open ocean waters. The distribution of Hg(T) there suggests an atmospheric Hg deposition with snow and a fractionation process during sea ice formation, which excludes Hg from the ice with a parallel Hg enrichment of brine, probably concurring with the Hg enrichment of AABW observed in the open ocean waters. Contrastingly, MeHg(T) concentrations in the sea ice environment were in the same range as in the open ocean waters, remaining below 0.45 pmol/L. The MeHg(T) vertical profile through the continuum suggests different sources, including atmosphere, seawater and methylation in basal ice. Whereas Hg(T) concentrations in the water samples collected between the Antarctic continent and Tasmania are comparable to recent measurements made in the other parts of the World Ocean (e.g., Soerensen et al., 2010; doi:10.1021/es903839n), the Hg species distribution suggests distinct features in the Southern Ocean Hg cycle: (i) a net atmospheric Hg deposition on surface water near the ice edge, (ii) the Hg enrichment in brine during sea ice formation, and (iii) a net methylation of Hg south of the SPF.

Crabeater seals (Lobodon carcinophaga) in the Weddell Sea during DRE1998 campaign

The crabeater seal (Lobodon carcinophaga) is the most abundant Antarctic seal and inhabits the circumpolar pack ice zone of the Southern Ocean. Until now, information on important environmental factors affecting its distribution as well as on foraging behaviour is limited. In austral summer 1998, 12 crabeater seals of both sexes and different age classes were equipped with satellitelinked dive recorders at Drescher Inlet (72.85°S, 19.26°E), eastern Weddell Sea. To identify suitable habitat conditions within the Weddell Sea, a maximum entropy (Maxent) modelling approach was implemented. The model revealed that the eastern and southern Weddell Sea is especially suitable for crabeater seals. Distance to the continental shelf break and sea ice concentration were the two most important parameters in modelling species distribution throughout the study period. Model predictions demonstrated that crabeater seals showed a dynamic response to their seasonally changing environment emphasized by the favoured sea ice conditions. Crabeater seals utilized ice-free waters substantially, which is potentially explained by the comparatively low sea ice cover of the Weddell Sea during summer 1998. Diving behaviour was characterized by short (>90 % = 0-4 min) and shallow (>90 % = 0-51 m) dives. This pattern reflects the typical summer and autumn foraging behaviour of crabeater seals. Both the distribution and foraging behaviour corresponded well with the life history of the Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), the preferred prey of crabeater seals. In general, predicted suitable habitat conditions were congruent with probable habitats of krill, which emphasizes the strong dependence on their primary prey.

Climate sensitivity across marine domains of life: limits to evolutionary adaptation shape species interactions, supplementary material

Organisms in all domains, Archaea, Bacteria, and Eukarya will respond to climate change with differential vulnerabilities resulting in shifts in species distribution, coexistence, and interactions. The identification of unifying principles of organism functioning across all domains would facilitate a cause and effect understanding of such changes and their implications for ecosystem shifts. For example, the functional specialization of all organisms in limited temperature ranges leads us to ask for unifying functional reasons. Organisms also specialize in either anoxic or various oxygen ranges, with animals and plants depending on high oxygen levels. Here, we identify thermal ranges, heat limits of growth, and critically low (hypoxic) oxygen concentrations as proxies of tolerance in a meta-analysis of data available for marine organisms, with special reference to domain-specific limits. For an explanation of the patterns and differences observed, we define and quantify a proxy for organismic complexity across species from all domains. Rising complexity causes heat (and hypoxia) tolerances to decrease from Archaea to Bacteria to uni- and then multicellular Eukarya. Within and across domains, taxon-specific tolerance limits likely reflect ultimate evolutionary limits of its species to acclimatization and adaptation. We hypothesize that rising taxon-specific complexities in structure and function constrain organisms to narrower environmental ranges. Low complexity as in Archaea and some Bacteria provide life options in extreme environments. In the warmest oceans, temperature maxima reach and will surpass the permanent limits to the existence of multicellular animals, plants and unicellular phytoplankter. Smaller, less complex unicellular Eukarya, Bacteria, and Archaea will thus benefit and predominate even more in a future, warmer, and hypoxic ocean.