Model results of the impact of climate change on agriculture in China

This paper assesses the impact of climate change on China's agricultural production at a cross-provincial level using the Ricardian approach, incorporating a multilevel model with farm-level group data. The farm-level group data includes 13379 farm households, across 316 villages, distributed in 31 provinces. The empirical results show that, firstly, the marginal effects and elasticities of net crop revenue per hectare with respect to climate factors indicated that the annual impact of temperature on net crop revenue per hectare was positive, and the effect of increased precipitation was negative when looking at the national totals; secondly, the total impact of simulated climate change scenarios on net crop revenues per hectare at a Chinese national total level, was an increase of between 79 USD per hectare and 207 USD per hectare for the 2050s, and an increase from 140 USD per hectare to 355 USD per hectare for the 2080s. As a result, climate change may create a potential advantage for the development of Chinese agriculture, rather than a risk, especially for agriculture in the provinces of the Northeast, Northwest and North regions. However, the increased precipitation can lead to a loss of net crop revenue per hectare, especially for the provinces of the Southwest, Northwest, North and Northeast regions.

Plio-Pleistocene age-depth points and occurrence of hiatuses in ODP sites of the Southern Ocean

Changes in Atlantic deep water circulation were reconstructed by comparing the benthic foraminiferal delta13C record at ODP Site 1090 in the South Atlantic with similar records from the North Atlantic (Sites 982, 607, 925, 929) and deep Pacific (Site 849) oceans. Important deep water circulation changes occurred in the early Pleistocene at 1.55 Myr and during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition at 0.9 Myr. At 1.55 Myr, glacial delta13C values in the Southern Ocean became significantly lower than those in the deep Pacific, establishing a pattern that persisted throughout the late Pleistocene. We propose that the lowering of delta13C values of Southern Component Water (SCW) at this time resulted from expansion of sea ice and reduced ventilation of deep water during glacial periods after marine isotope stage 52. Accompanying this change in Southern Ocean deep water circulation was enhanced interhemispheric coupling between the North and South Atlantic after 1.55 Myr. At ~0.9 Myr, the magnitude of glacial-to-interglacial variabilityin delta13C increased and shifted to a longer frequency (100 kyr) along with oceanic delta18O (ice volume). Calculation of percent Northern Component Water (NCW) using Site 1090 as the SCW end member yielded 20-30% less reduction of NCW during glacial periods of the late Pleistocene. Also, a trend toward reduced glacial suppression of NCW during the past 400 kyr is not evident. The apparent decoupling of ice volume and deep water circulation reported previously maybe an artifact of using a Pacific, rather than a Southern Ocean, carbon isotopic record to calculate past mixing ratios of NCW and SCW.

(Table 1) Presence of sublittoral macroalgae in the investigated profiles in Potter Cove, King George Island, Antarctica

The vegetation of a small fjord and its adjacent open shore was documented by subaquatic video. The distribution of individual species of macroalgae and the composition of assemblages were compared with gradients of light availability, hydrography, slope inclination, substratum, and exposition to turbulence and ice. The sublittoral fringe is usually abraded by winterly ice floes and devoid of large, perennial algae. Below this zone, the upper sublittoral is dominated by Desmarestia menziesii on steep rock faces, where water movements become irregular, or by Ascoseira mirabilis and Palmaria decipiens on weakly inclined slopes with steady rolling water movements. In the central sublittoral above 15 m, where turbulence is still active, Desmarestia anceps is outcompeting all other species on solid substratum, However, the species is not able to persist on loose material under these conditions. Instead, Himantothallus grandifolius may occur. Deeper, where turbulence usually is negligible, Desmarestia anceps also covers loose material. The change of dominance to Himantothallus grandifolius in the deep sublittoral cannot completely be explained at present. Himantothallus grandifolius also prevails in a mixed assemblage under the influence of grounding icebergs. Most of the smaller algae are opportunists with different degrees of tolerance for turbulence, but some apparently need more stable microhabitats and thus are dependent from continuing suppression of competitive large phaeophytes.

Model-based changes in global annual mean surface temperature change (Delta T_g) and radiative forcing due to land ice albedo changes (Delta R_[LI]) over the last 5 Myr, supplementary material

It is still an open question how equilibrium warming in response to increasing radiative forcing - the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S - depends on background climate. We here present palaeodata-based evidence on the state dependency of S, by using CO2 proxy data together with a 3-D ice-sheet-model-based reconstruction of land ice albedo over the last 5 million years (Myr). We find that the land ice albedo forcing depends non-linearly on the background climate, while any non-linearity of CO2 radiative forcing depends on the CO2 data set used. This non-linearity has not, so far, been accounted for in similar approaches due to previously more simplistic approximations, in which land ice albedo radiative forcing was a linear function of sea level change. The latitudinal dependency of ice-sheet area changes is important for the non-linearity between land ice albedo and sea level. In our set-up, in which the radiative forcing of CO2 and of the land ice albedo (LI) is combined, we find a state dependence in the calculated specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], for most of the Pleistocene (last 2.1 Myr). During Pleistocene intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods, S[CO2,LI] is on average ~ 45 % larger than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. In the Pliocene part of our analysis (2.6-5 Myr BP) the CO2 data uncertainties prevent a well-supported calculation for S[CO2,LI], but our analysis suggests that during times without a large land ice area in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. before 2.82 Myr BP), the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene. We thus find support for a previously proposed state change in the climate system with the widespread appearance of northern hemispheric ice sheets. This study points for the first time to a so far overlooked non-linearity in the land ice albedo radiative forcing, which is important for similar palaeodata-based approaches to calculate climate sensitivity. However, the implications of this study for a suggested warming under CO2 doubling are not yet entirely clear since the details of necessary corrections for other slow feedbacks are not fully known and the uncertainties that exist in the ice-sheet simulations and global temperature reconstructions are large.

Composite depth scale, tie points and magnetic susceptibilities of ODP Site 178-1098 sediments

Multiple holes were cored at Ocean Drilling Program Leg 178 Sites 1098 and 1099 in two subbasins of the Palmer Deep in order to recover complete and continuous records of sedimentation. By correlating measured properties of cores from different holes at a site, we have established a common depth scale, referred to as the meters composite depth scale (mcd), for all cores from Site 1098. For Site 1098, distinct similarities in the magnetic susceptibility records obtained from three holes provide tight constraints on between-hole correlation. Additional constraints come from lithologic features. Specific intervals from other data sets, particularly gamma-ray attenuation bulk density, magnetic intensity, and color reflectance, contain distinctive anomalies that correlate well when placed into the preferred composite depth scale, confirming that the scale is accurate. Coring in two holes at Site 1099 provides only a few meters of overlap. None of the data sets within this limited overlap region provide convincing correlations. Thus, the preferred composite depth scale for Site 1099 is the existing depth scale in meters below seafloor (mbsf).

High resolution bathymetric compilation for Potter Cove, WAP, Antarctica, with links to data in ArcGIS format

The bathymetry raster with a resolution of 5 m x 5 m was processed from unpublished single beam data from the Argentine Antarctica Institute (IAA, 2010) and multibeam data from the United Kingdom Hydrographic Office (UKHO, 2012) with a cell size of 5 m x 5 m. A coastline digitized from a satellite image (DigitalGlobe, 2014) supplemented the interpolation process. The 'Topo to Raster' tool in ArcMap 10.3 was used to merge the three data sets, while the coastline represented the 0-m-contour to the interpolation process ('contour type option').