36 resultados para modeling and model calibration


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Bedforms such as dunes and ripples are ubiquitous in rivers and coastal seas, and commonly described as triangular shapes from which height and length are calculated to estimate hydrodynamic and sediment dynamic parameters. Natural bedforms, however, present a far more complicated morphology; the difference between natural bedform shape and the often assumed triangular shape is usually neglected, and how this may affect the flow is unknown. This study investigates the shapes of natural bedforms and how they influence flow and shear stress, based on four datasets extracted from earlier studies on two rivers (the Rio Paraná in Argentina, and the Lower Rhine in The Netherlands). The most commonly occurring morphological elements are a sinusoidal stoss side made of one segment and a lee side made of two segments, a gently sloping upper lee side and a relatively steep (6 to 21°) slip face. A non-hydrostatic numerical model, set up using Delft3D, served to simulate the flow over fixed bedforms with various morphologies derived from the identified morphological elements. Both shear stress and turbulence increase with increasing slip face angle and are only marginally affected by the dimensions and positions of the upper and lower lee side. The average slip face angle determined from the bed profiles is 14°, over which there is no permanent flow separation. Shear stress and turbulence above natural bedforms are higher than above a flat bed but much lower than over the often assumed 30° lee side angle.

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As part of the CryoSat Cal/Val activities and the pre-site survey for an ice core drilling contributing to the International Partnerships in Ice Core Sciences (IPICS), ground based kinematic GPS measurements were conducted in early 2007 in the vicinity of the German overwintering station Neumayer (8.25° W and 70.65° S). The investigated area comprises the regions of the ice tongues Halvfarryggen and Søråsen, which rise from the Ekströmisen to a maximum of about 760 m surface elevation, and have an areal extent of about 100 km x 50 km each. Available digital elevation models (DEMs) from radar altimetry and the Antarctic Digital Database show elevation differences of up to hundreds of meters in this region, which necessitated an accurate survey of the conditions on-site. An improved DEM of the Ekströmisen surroundings is derived by a combination of highly accurate ground based GPS measurements, satellite derived laser altimetry data (ICESat), airborne radar altimetry (ARA), and radio echo sounding (RES). The DEM presented here achieves a vertical accuracy of about 1.3 m and can be used for improved ice dynamic modeling and mass balance studies.

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We investigate changes in the delivery and oceanic transport of Amazon sediments related to terrestrial climate variations over the last 250 ka. We present high-resolution geochemical records from four marine sediment cores located between 5 and 12° N along the northern South American margin. The Amazon River is the sole source of terrigenous material for sites at 5 and 9° N, while the core at 12° N receives a mixture of Amazon and Orinoco detrital particles. Using an endmember unmixing model, we estimated the relative proportions of Amazon Andean material ("%-Andes", at 5 and 9° N) and of Amazon material ("%-Amazon", at 12° N) within the terrigenous fraction. The %-Andes and %-Amazon records exhibit significant precessional variations over the last 250 ka that are more pronounced during interglacials in comparison to glacial periods. High %-Andes values observed during periods of high austral summer insolation reflect the increased delivery of suspended sediments by Andean tributaries and enhanced Amazonian precipitation, in agreement with western Amazonian speleothem records. Increased Amazonian rainfall reflects the intensification of the South American monsoon in response to enhanced land-ocean thermal gradient and moisture convergence. However, low %-Amazon values obtained at 12° N during the same periods seem to contradict the increased delivery of Amazon sediments. We propose that reorganizations in surface ocean currents modulate the northwestward transport of Amazon material. In agreement with published records, the seasonal North Brazil Current retroflection is intensified (or prolonged in duration) during cold substages of the last 250 ka (which correspond to intervals of high DJF or low JJA insolation) and deflects eastward the Amazon sediment and freshwater plume.

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Instrumental climate data are limited in length and only available with low spatial coverage before the middle of the 20th century. This is too short to reliably determine and interpret decadal and longer scale climate variability and to understand the underlying mechanisms with sufficient accuracy. A proper knowledge of past variability of the climate system is needed to assess the anthropogenic impact on climate and ecosystems, and also important with regard to long-range climate forecasting. Highly-resolved records of past climate variations that extend beyond pre-industrial times can significantly help to understand long-term climate changes and trends. Indirect information on past environmental and climatic conditions can be deduced from climate-sensitive proxies. Large colonies of massive growing tropical reef corals have been proven to sensitively monitor changes in ambient seawater. Rapid skeletal growth, typically ranging between several millimeters to centimeters per year, allows the development of proxy records at sub-seasonal resolution. Stable oxygen isotopic composition and trace elemental ratios incorporated in the aragonitic coral skeleton can reveal a detailed history of past environmental conditions, e.g., sea surface temperature (SST). In general, coral-based reconstructions from the tropical Atlantic region have lagged behind the extensive work published using coral records from the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Difficulties in the analysis of previously utilized coral archives from the Atlantic, typically corals of the genera Montastrea and Siderastrea, have so far exacerbated the production of long-term high-resolution proxy records. The objective of this study is the evaluation of massive fast-growing corals of the species Diploria strigosa as a new marine archive for climate reconstructions from the tropical Atlantic region. For this purpose, coral records from two study sites in the eastern Caribbean Sea (Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles; and Archipelago Los Roques, Venezuela) were examined. At Guadeloupe, a century-long monthly resolved multi-proxy coral record was generated. Results present the first d18O (Sr/Ca)-SST calibration equations for the Atlantic braincoral Diploria strigosa, that are robust and consistent with previously published values using other coral species from different regions. Both proxies reflect local variability of SST on a sub-seasonal scale, which is a precondition for studying seasonally phase-locked climate variations, as well as track variability on a larger spatial scale (i.e., in the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic). Coral Sr/Ca reliably records local annual to interannual temperature variations and is higher correlated to in-situ air temperature than to grid-SST. The warming calculated from coral Sr/Ca is concurrent with the strong surface temperature increase at the study site during the past decades. Proxy data show a close relationship to major climate signals from the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic (the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)) affecting the seasonal cycle of SST in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA). Coral oxygen isotopes are also influenced by seawater d18O (d18Osw) which is linked to the hydrological cycle, and capture large-scale climate variability in the NTA region better than Sr/Ca. Results from a quantitative comparison between extreme events in the two most prominent modes of external forcing, namely the ENSO and NAO, and respective events recorded in seasonal coral d18O imply that SST variability at the study site is highly linked to Pacific and North Atlantic variability, by this means supporting the assumptions of observational- and model-based studies which suggest a strong impact of ENSO and NAO forcings onto the NTA region through a modulation of trade wind strength in winter. Results from different spectral analysis tools suggest that interannual climate variability recorded by the coral proxies is II largely dictated by Pacific ENSO forcing, whereas at decadal and longer timescales the influence of the NAO is dominan. tThe Archipelago Los Roques is situated in the southeastern Caribbean Sea, north of the Venezuelan coast. Year-to-year variations in monthly resolved coral d18O of a nearcentury- long Diploria strigosa record are significantly correlated with SST and show pronounced multidecadal variations. About half of the variance in coral d18O can be explained by variations in seawater d18O, which can be estimated by calculating the d18Oresidual via subtracting the SST component from measured coral d18O. The d18Oresidual and a regional precipitation index are highly correlated at low frequencies, suggesting that d18Osw variations are primarily atmospheric-driven. Warmer SSTs at Los Roques broadly coincide with higher precipitation in the southeastern Caribbean at multidecadal time scales, effectively strengthening the climate signal in the coral d18O record. The Los Roques coral d18O record displays a strong and statistically significant relationship to different indices of hurricane activity during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season in boreal summer and is a particularly good indicator of decadal-multidecadal swings in the latter indices. In general, the detection of long-term changes and trends in Atlantic hurricane activity is hampered due to the limited length of the reliable instrumental record and the known inhomogeneity in the observational databases which result from changes in observing practice and technology over the years. The results suggest that coral-derived proxy data from Los Roques can be used to infer changes in past hurricane activity on timescales that extend well beyond the reliable record. In addition, the coral record exhibits a clear negative trend superimposed on the decadal to multidecadal cycles, indicating a significant warming and freshening of surface waters in the genesis region of tropical cyclones during the past decades. The presented coral d18O time series provides the first and, so far, longest continuous coral-based record of hurricane activity. It appears that the combination of both signals (SST and d18Osw) in coral d18O leads to an amplification of large-scale climate signals in the record, and makes coral d18O even a better proxy for hurricane activity than SST alone. Atlantic hurricane activity naturally exhibits strong multidecadal variations that are associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the major mode of lowfrequency variability in the North Atlantic Ocean. However, the mechanisms underlying this multidecadal variability remain controversial, primarily because of the limited instrumental record. The Los Roques coral d18O displays strong multidecadal variability with a period of approximately 60 years that is closely related to the AMO, making the Archipelago Los Roques a very sensitive location for studying low-frequency climate variability in the Atlantic Ocean. In summary, the coral records presented in this thesis capture different key climate variables in the north tropical Atlantic region very well, indicating that fast-growing Diploria strigosa corals represent a promising marine archive for further proxy-based reconstructions of past climate variability on a range of time scales.

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ODP Site 1078 situated under the coast of Angola provides the first record of the vegetation history for Angola. The upper 11 m of the core covers the past 30 thousand years, which has been analysed palynologically in decadal to centennial resolution. Alkenone sea surface temperature estimates were analysed in centennial resolution. We studied sea surface temperatures and vegetation development during full glacial, deglacial, and interglacial conditions. During the glacial the vegetation in Angola was very open consisting of grass and heath lands, deserts and semi-deserts, which suggests a cool and dry climate. A change to warmer and more humid conditions is indicated by forest expansion starting in step with the earliest temperature rise in Antarctica, 22 thousand years ago. We infer that around the period of Heinrich Event 1, a northward excursion of the Angola Benguela Front and the Congo Air Boundary resulted in cool sea surface temperatures but rain forest remained present in the northern lowlands of Angola. Rain forest and dry forest area increase 15 thousand years ago. During the Holocene, dry forests and Miombo woodlands expanded. Also in Angola globally recognised climate changes at 8 thousand and 4 thousand years ago had an impact on the vegetation. During the past 2 thousand years, savannah vegetation became dominant.

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Studies combining sedimentological and biological evidence to reconstruct Holocene climate beyond the major changes, and especially seasonality, are rare in Europe, and are nearly completely absent in Germany. The present study tries to reconstruct changes of seasonality from evidence of annual algal successions within the framework of well-established pollen zonation and 14C-AMS dates from terrestrial plants. Laminated Holocene sediments in Lake Jues (10°20.70' E, 51°39.30' N, 241 m a.s.l.), located at the SW margin of the Harz Mountains, central Germany, were studied for sediment characteristics, pollen, diatoms and coccal green algae. An age model is based on 21 calibrated AMS radiocarbon dates from terrestrial plants. The sedimentary record covers the entire Holocene period. Trophic status and circulation/stagnation patterns of the lake were inferred from algal assemblages, the subannual structure of varves and the physico-chemical properties of the sediment. During the Holocene, mixing conditions alternated between di-, oligo- and meromictic depending on length and variability of spring and fall periods, and the stability of winter and summer weather. The trophic state was controlled by nutrient input, circulation patterns and the temperature-dependent rates of organic production and mineralization. Climate shifts, mainly in phase with those recorded from other European regions, are inferred from changing limnological conditions and terrestrial vegetation. Significant changes occurred at 11,600 cal. yr. BP (Preboreal warming), between 10,600 and 10,100 cal. yr. BP (Boreal cooling), and between 8,400 and 4,550 cal. yr. BP (warm and dry interval of the Atlantic). Since 4,550 cal. yr. BP the climate became gradually cooler, wetter and more oceanic. This trend was interrupted by warmer and dryer phases between 3,440 and 2,850 cal. yr. BP and, likely, between 2,500 and 2,250 cal. yr. BP.

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The 87Sr/86Sr ratios and Sr concentrations in sediment and pore fluids are used to evaluate the rates of calcite recrystallization at ODP Site 807A on the Ontong Java Plateau, an 800-meter thick section of carbonate ooze and chalk. A numerical model is used to evaluate the pore fluid chemistry and Sr isotopes in an accumulating section. The deduced calcite recrystallization rate is 2% per million years (%/Myr) near the top of the section and decreases systematically in older parts of the section such that the rate is close to 0.1/age (in years). The deduced recrystallization rates have important implications for the interpretation of Ca and Mg concentration profiles in the pore fluids. The effect of calcite recrystallization on pore fluid chemistry is described by the reaction length, L, which varies by element, and depends on the concentration in pore fluid and solid. When L is small compared to the thickness of the sedimentary section, the pore fluid concentration is controlled by equilibrium or steady-state exchange with the solid phase, except within a distance L of the sediment-water interface. When L is large relative to the thickness of sediment, the pore fluid concentration is mostly controlled by the boundary conditions and diffusion. The values of L for Ca, Sr, and Mg are of order 15, 150, and 1500 meters, respectively. L_Sr is derived from isotopic data and modeling, and allows us to infer the values of L_Ca and L_Mg. The small value for L_Ca indicates that pore fluid Ca concentrations, which gradually increase down section, must be equilibrium values that are maintained by solution-precipitation exchange with calcite and do not reflect Ca sources within or below the sediment column. The pore fluid Ca measurements and measured alkalinity allow us to calculate the in situ pH in the pore fluids, which decreases from 7.6 near the sediment-water interface to 7.1+/-0.1 at 400-800 mbsf. While the calculated pH values are in agreement with some of the values measured during ODP Leg 130, most of the measurements are artifacts. The large value for L_Mg indicates that the pore fluid Mg concentrations at 807A are not controlled by calcite-fluid equilibrium but instead are determined by the changing Mg concentration of seawater during deposition, modified by aqueous diffusion in the pore fluids. We use the pore fluid Mg concentration profile at Site 807A to retrieve a global record for seawater Mg over the past 35 Myr, which shows that seawater Mg has increased rapidly over the past 10 Myr, rather than gradually over the past 60 Myr. This observation suggests that the Cenozoic rise in seawater Mg is controlled by continental weathering inputs rather than by exchange with oceanic crust. The relationship determined between reaction rate and age in silicates and carbonates is strikingly similar, which suggests that reaction affinity is not the primary determinant of silicate dissolution rates in nature.