17 resultados para large-scale modelling


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It is commonly understood that the observed decline in precipitation in South-West Australia during the 20th century is caused by anthropogenic factors. Candidates therefore are changes to large-scale atmospheric circulations due to global warming, extensive deforestation and anthropogenic aerosol emissions - all of which are effective on different spatial and temporal scales. This contribution focusses on the role of rapidly rising aerosol emissions from anthropogenic sources in South-West Australia around 1970. An analysis of historical longterm rainfall data of the Bureau of Meteorology shows that South-West Australia as a whole experienced a gradual decline in precipitation over the 20th century. However, on smaller scales and for the particular example of the Perth catchment area, a sudden drop in precipitation around 1970 is apparent. Modelling experiments at a convection-resolving resolution of 3.3km using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.6.1 with the aerosol-aware Thompson-Eidhammer microphysics scheme are conducted for the period 1970-1974. A comparison of four runs with different prescribed aerosol emissions and without aerosol effects demonstrates that tripling the pre-1960s atmospheric CCN and IN concentrations can suppress precipitation by 2-9%, depending on the area and the season. This suggests that a combination of all three processes is required to account for the gradual decline in rainfall seen for greater South-West Australia and for the sudden drop observed in areas along the West Coast in the 1970s: changing atmospheric circulations, deforestation and anthropogenic aerosol emissions.

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Topographic variation, the spatial variation in elevation and terrain features, underpins a myriad of patterns and processes in geography and ecology and is key to understanding the variation of life on the planet. The characterization of this variation is scale-dependent, i.e. it varies with the distance over which features are assessed and with the spatial grain (grid cell resolution) of analysis. A fully standardized and global multivariate product of different terrain features has the potential to support many large-scale basic research and analytical applications, however to date, such technique is unavailable. Here we used the digital elevation model products of global 250 m GMTED and near-global 90 m SRTM to derive a suite of topographic variables: elevation, slope, aspect, eastness, northness, roughness, terrain roughness index, topographic position index, vector ruggedness measure, profile and tangential curvature, and 10 geomorphological landform classes. We aggregated each variable to 1, 5, 10, 50 and 100 km spatial grains using several aggregation approaches (median, average, minimum, maximum, standard deviation, percent cover, count, majority, Shannon Index, entropy, uniformity). While a global cross-correlation underlines the high similarity of many variables, a more detailed view in four mountain regions reveals local differences, as well as scale variations in the aggregated variables at different spatial grains. All newly-developed variables are available for download at http://www.earthenv.org and can serve as a basis for standardized hydrological, environmental and biodiversity modeling at a global extent.