138 resultados para global warming potential


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The combined impacts of future scenarios of ocean acidification and global warming on the larvae of a cold-eurythermal spider crab, Hyas araneus L., were investigated in one of its southernmost populations (living around Helgoland, southern North Sea, 54°N) and one of the northernmost populations (Svalbard, North Atlantic, 79°N). Larvae were exposed at temperatures of 3, 9 and 15°C to present day normocapnia (380 ppm CO2) and to CO2 conditions expected for the near or medium-term future (710 ppm by 2100 and 3000 ppm CO2 by 2300 and beyond). Larval development time and biochemical composition were studied in the larval stages Zoea I, II, and Megalopa. Permanent differences in instar duration between both populations were detected in all stages, likely as a result of evolutionary temperature adaptation. With the exception of Zoea II at 3°C and under all CO2 conditions, development in all instars from Svalbard was delayed compared to those from Helgoland, under all conditions. Most prominently, development was much longer and fewer specimens morphosed to the first crab instar in the Megalopa from Svalbard than from Helgoland. Enhanced CO2 levels (710 and particularly 3000 ppm), caused extended duration of larval development and reduced larval growth (measured as dry mass) and fitness (decreasing C/N ratio, a proxy of the lipid content). Such effects were strongest in the zoeal stages in Svalbard larvae, and during the Megalopa instar in Helgoland larvae.

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Global warming and ocean acidification are among the most important stressors for aquatic ecosystems in the future. To investigate their direct and indirect effects on a near-natural plankton community, a multiple-stressor approach is needed. Hence, we set up mesocosms in a full-factorial design to study the effects of both warming and high CO2 on a Baltic Sea autumn plankton community, concentrating on the impacts on microzooplankton (MZP). MZP abundance, biomass, and species composition were analysed over the course of the experiment. We observed that warming led to a reduced time-lag between the phytoplankton bloom and an MZP biomass maximum. MZP showed a significantly higher growth rate and an earlier biomass peak in the warm treatments while the biomass maximum was not affected. Increased pCO2 did not result in any significant effects on MZP biomass, growth rate, or species composition irrespective of the temperature, nor did we observe any significant interactions between CO2 and temperature. We attribute this to the high tolerance of this estuarine plankton community to fluctuations in pCO2, often resulting in CO2 concentrations higher than the predicted end-of-century concentration for open oceans. In contrast, warming can be expected to directly affect MZP and strengthen its coupling with phytoplankton by enhancing its grazing pressure.

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Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations are expectedto decrease surface ocean pH by 0.3-0.5 units by 2100, lowering the carbonate ion concentration of surfacewaters. This rapid acidification is predicted to dramatically decrease calcification in many marine organisms. Reduced skeletal growth under increased CO2 levels has already been shown for corals, molluscs and many other marine organisms. The impact of acidification on the ability of individual species to calcify has remained elusive, however, as measuring net calcification fails to disentangle the relative contributions of gross calcification and dissolution rates on growth. Here, we show that corals and molluscs transplanted along gradients of carbonate saturation state at Mediterranean CO2 vents are able to calcify and grow at even faster than normal rates when exposed to the high CO2 levels projected for the next 300 years. Calcifiers remain at risk, however, owing to the dissolution of exposed shells and skeletons that occurs as pH levels fall. Our results show that tissues and external organic layers play a major role in protecting shells and skeletons from corrosive sea water, limiting dissolution and allowing organisms to calcify. Our combined field and laboratory results demonstrate that the adverse effects of global warming are exacerbated when high temperatures coincide with acidification.

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An abrupt global warming of 3-4°C occurred near the end of the Maastrichtian at 65.45-65.10 Ma. The environmental effects of this warm event are here documented based on stable isotopes and quantitative analysis of planktonic foraminifera at the South Atlantic DSDP Site 525A. Stable isotopes of individual species mark a rapid increase in temperature and a reduction in the vertical water mass stratification that is accompanied by a decrease in niche habitats, reduced species diversity and/or abundance, smaller species morphologies or dwarfing, and reduced photosymbiotic activity. During the warm event, the relative abundance of a large number of species decreased, including tropical-subtropical affiliated species, whereas typical mid-latitude species retained high abundances. This indicates that climate warming did not create favorable conditions for all tropical-subtropical species at mid-latitudes and did not cause a massive retreat in the local mid-latitude population. A noticeable exception is the ecological generalist Heterohelix dentata Stenestad that dominated during the cool intervals, but significantly decreased during the warm event. However, dwarfing is the most striking response to the abrupt warming and occurred in various species of different morphologies and lineages (e.g. biserial, trochospiral, keeled globotruncanids). Dwarfing is a typical reaction to environmental stress conditions and was likely the result of increased reproduction rates. Similarly, photosymbiotic activity appears to have been reduced significantly during the maximum warming, as indicated by decreased delta13C values. The foraminiferal response to climate change is thus multifaceted resulting in decreased species diversity, decreased species populations, increased competition due to reduced niche habitats, dwarfing and reduced photosymbiotic activity.

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We compare six high-resolution Holocene, sediment cores along a S-N transect on the Norwegian-Svalbard continental margin from ca 60°N to 77.4°N, northern North Atlantic. Planktonic foraminifera in the cores were investigated to show the changes in upper surface and subsurface water mass distribution and properties, including summer sea-surface temperatures (SST). The cores are located below the axis of the Norwegian Current and the West Spitsbergen Current, which today transport warm Atlantic Water to the Arctic. Sediment accumulation rates are generally high at all the core sites, allowing for a temporal resolution of 10-102 years. SST is reconstructed using different types of transfer functions, resulting in very similar SST trends, with deviations of no more than +- 1.0/1.5 °C. A transfer function based on the maximum likelihood statistical approach is found to be most relevant. The reconstruction documents an abrupt change in planktonic foraminiferal faunal composition and an associated warming at the Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition. The earliest part of the Holocene was characterized by large temperature variability, including the Preboreal Oscillations and the 8.2 k event. In general, the early Holocene was characterized by SSTs similar to those of today in the south and warmer than today in the north, and a smaller S-N temperature gradient (0.23 °C/°N) compared to the present temperature gradient (0.46 °C/°N). The southern proxy records (60-69°N) were more strongly influenced by slightly cooler subsurface water probably due to the seasonality of the orbital forcing and increased stratification due to freshening. The northern records (72-77.4°N) display a millennial-scale change associated with reduced insolation and a gradual weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The observed northwards amplification of the early Holocene warming is comparable to the pattern of recent global warming and future climate modelling, which predicts greater warming at higher latitudes. The overall trend during mid and late Holocene was a cooling in the north, stable or weak warming in the south, and a maximum S-N SST gradient of ca 0.7 °C/°N at 5000 cal. years BP. Superimposed on this trend were several abrupt temperature shifts. Four of these shifts, dated to 9000-8000, 5500-3000 and 1000 and ~400 cal. years BP, appear to be global, as they correlate with periods of global climate change. In general, there is a good correlation between the northern North Atlantic temperature records and climate records from Norway and Svalbard.

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The West Antarctic ice sheet is particularly sensitive to global warming and its evolution and impact on global climate over the next few decades remains difficult to predict. In this context, investigating past sea ice conditions around Antarctica is of primary importance. Here, we document changes in sea ice presence, upper water column temperatures (0-200 m) and primary productivity over the last 9000 yr BP (before present) in the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) margin from a sedimentary core collected in the Palmer Deep Basin. Employing a multi-proxy approach, based on the combination of two biomarkers proxies (highly branched isoprenoid (HBI) alkenes for sea ice and TEXL86 for temperature) and micropaleontological data (diatom assemblages), we derived new Holocene records of sea ice conditions and upper water column temperatures. The early Holocene (9000-7000 yr BP) was characterized by a cooling phase with a short sea ice season. During the mid-Holocene (~7000-3800 yr BP), local climate evolved towards slightly colder conditions and a prominent extension of the sea ice season occurred, promoting a favorable environment for intensive diatom growth. The late Holocene (the last ~2100 yr) was characterized by warmer temperatures and increased sea ice presence, accompanied by reduced local primary productivity, likely in response to a shorter growing season compared to the early or mid-Holocene. The gradual increase in annual sea ice duration over the last 7000 yr might have been influenced by decreasing mean annual and spring insolation, despite increasing summer insolation. We postulate that, in addition to precessional changes in insolation, seasonal variability, via changes in the strength of the circumpolar Westerlies and upwelling activity, was further amplified by the increasing frequency/amplitude of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, between 3800 and 2100 yr BP, the lack of correlation between ENSO and climate variability in the WAP suggests that other climatic factors might have been more important in controlling WAP climate at this time.

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The late Paleocene thermal maximum (LPTM) was a dramatic, short-term global warming event that occurred ~55 Ma. Warming of high-latitude surface waters and global deep waters during the LPTM has been well documented; however, current data suggest that subtropical and tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) did not change during the event. Conventional paradigms of global climate change, such as CO2-induced greenhouse warming, predict greater warming in the high latitudes than in the tropics or subtropics but, nonetheless, cannot account for the stable tropical/subtropical SSTs. We measured the stable isotope values of well-preserved late Paleocene to early Eocene planktonic foraminifera from South Atlantic Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 527 to evaluate the subtropical response to the climatic and environmental changes of the LPTM. Planktonic foraminiferal d18O values at Site 527 decrease by ~0.94 per mil from pre-LPTM to excursion values, providing the first evidence for subtropical warming during the LPTM. We estimate that subtropical South Atlantic SSTs warmed by at least ~1°-4°C, on the basis of possible changes in evaporation and precipitation. The new evidence for subtropical SST warming supports a greenhouse mechanism for global warming involving elevated atmospheric CO2 levels.

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The carbonate saturation profile of the oceans shoaled markedly during a transient global warming event known as the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) (circa 55 Ma). The rapid release of large quantities of carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system is believed to have triggered this intense episode of dissolution along with a negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE). The brevity (120-220 kyr) of the PETM reflects the rapid enhancement of negative feedback mechanisms within Earth's exogenic carbon cycle that served the dual function of buffering ocean pH and reducing atmospheric greenhouse gas levels. Detailed study of the PETM stratigraphy from Ocean Drilling Program Site 690 (Weddell Sea) reveals that the CIE recovery period, which postdates the CIE onset by ~80 kyr, is represented by an expanded (~2.5 m thick) interval containing a unique planktic foraminiferal assemblage strongly diluted by coccolithophore carbonate. Collectively, the micropaleontological and sedimentological changes preserved within the CIE recovery interval reflect a transient state when ocean-atmosphere chemistry fostered prolific coccolithophore blooms that suppressed the local lysocline to relatively deeper depths. A prominent peak in the abundance of the clay mineral kaolinite is associated with the CIE recovery interval, indicating that continental weathering/runoff intensified at this time as well (Robert and Kennett, 1994). Such parallel stratigraphic changes are generally consonant with the hypothesis that enhanced continental weathering/runoff and carbonate precipitation helped sequester carbon during the PETM recovery period (e.g., Dickens et al., 1997, doi:10.1130/0091-7613(1997)025<0259:ABOGIT>2.3.CO;2 ; Zachos et al., 2005, doi:10.1126/science.1109004).

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The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~5 million years ago) was an interval of global warming and ocean acidification attributed to rapid release and oxidation of buried carbon. We show that the onset of the PETM coincided with a prominent increase in the origination and extinction of calcareous phytoplankton. Yet major perturbation of the surface-water saturation state across the PETM was not detrimental to the survival of most calcareous nannoplankton taxa and did not impart a calcification or ecological bias to the pattern of evolutionary turnover. Instead, the rate of environmental change appears to have driven turnover, preferentially affecting rare taxa living close to their viable limits.

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The global warming trend of the latest Oligocene was interrupted by several cooling events associated with Antarctic glaciations. These cooling events affected surface water productivity and plankton assemblages. Well-preserved radiolarians were obtained from upper Oligocene to lower Miocene sediments at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 199 Sites 1218 and 1219 in the equatorial Pacific, and 110 radiolarian species were identified. Four episodes of significant radiolarian faunal changes were identified: middle late Oligocene (27.5 to 27.3 Ma), latest Oligocene (24.4 Ma), earliest Miocene (23.3 Ma), and middle early Miocene (21.6 Ma). These four episodes approximately coincide with increases and decreases of biogenic silica accumulation rates and increases in delta18O values coded as "Oi" and "Mi" events. These data indicate that Antarctic glaciations were associated with change of siliceous sedimentation patterns and faunal changes in the equatorial Pacific. Radiolarian fauna was divided into three assemblages based on variations in radiolarian productivity, species richness and the composition of dominant species: a late Oligocene assemblage (27.6 to 24.4 Ma), a transitional assemblage (24.4 to 23.3 Ma) and an early Miocene assemblage (23.3 to 21.2 Ma). The late Oligocene assemblage is characterized by relatively high productivity, low species richness and four dominant species of Tholospyris anthophora, Stichocorys subligata, Lophocyrtis nomas and Lithelius spp. The transitional assemblage represents relatively low values of productivity and species richness, and consists of three dominant species of T. anthophora, S. subligata and L. nomas. The characteristics of the early Miocene assemblage are relatively low productivity, but high species richness. The two dominant species present in this assemblage are T. anthophora and Cyrtocapsella tetrapera. The most significant faunal turnover of radiolarians is marked at the boundary between the transitional/early Miocene assemblages.

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The causes for rising temperatures along the Antarctic Peninsula during the late Holocene have been debated, particularly in light of instrumental records of warming over the past decades (Russell and McGregor, 2010, doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9673-4). Suggested mechanisms range from upwelling of warm deep waters onto the continental shelf in response to variations in the westerly winds (Bentley et al., 2009, doi:10.1177/0959683608096603), to an influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on sea surface temperatures (Shevenell et al., 2011, doi:10.1038/nature09751). Here, we present a record of Holocene glacial ice discharge, derived from the oxygen isotope composition of marine diatoms from Palmer Deep along the west Antarctic Peninsula continental margin. We assess atmospheric versus oceanic influences on glacial discharge at this location, using analyses of diatom geochemistry to reconstruct atmospherically forced glacial ice discharge and diatom assemblage (Taylor and Sjunneskog, 2002, doi:10.1029/2000PA000564) ecology to investigate the oceanic environment. We show that two processes of atmospheric forcing-an increasing occurrence of La Niña events (Makou et al., 2010, doi:10.1130/G30366.1) and rising levels of summer insolation-had a stronger influence during the late Holocene than oceanic processes driven by southern westerly winds and upwelling of upper Circumpolar Deepwater. Given that the evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation under global warming is uncertain (Yeh et al., 2009, doi:10.1038/nature08316), its future impacts on the climatically sensitive system of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet remain to be established.

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The lengthy warm, stable climate of the Cretaceous terminated in the Campanian with a cooling trend, interrupted in the early and latest Maastrichtian by two events of global warming, at ~70-68 Ma and at 65.78-65.57 Ma. These climatic oscillations had a profound effect on pelagic ecosystems, especially on planktic foraminiferal populations. Here we compare biotic responses in the tropical-subtropical (Tethyan) open ocean and mesotrophic (Zin Valley, Israel) and oligotrophic (Tunisia) slopes, which correlate directly with global warming and cooling. The two warming events coincide with blooms of Guembelitria, an extreme opportunist genus best known as the main survivor of the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) catastrophe. In the Maastrichtian, Guembelitria bloomed in the uppermost surface water above shelf and slope environments but failed to reach the open ocean as it did at K-Pg. The coldest interval of the late Maastrichtian (~68-65.78 Ma) is marked by an acme of the otherwise rare species Gansserina gansseri, a deep-dwelling keeled globotruncanid. The G. gansseri acme event can be traced from the deep ocean even onto the Tethyan slope, marking copious production and circulation of cold intermediate water. This acme is abruptly terminated by extinction of the species, a dramatic reversal attributed to a short-term global warming episode. This extinction corresponds precisely with the second bloom of Guembelitria that began ~300 kyr prior to the K-Pg event. The antithetical relationship between blooming of Guembelitria and the G. gansseri acme reflects planktic foraminiferal sensitivity to warm-cool-warm-cool climatic oscillations marking the end of the Cretaceous.

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The ~90-year Gleissberg and ~200-year de Vries cycles have been identified as two distinctive quasi-periodic components of Holocene solar activity. Evidence exists for the impact of such multi-decadal to centennial-scale variability in total solar irradiance (TSI) on climate, but concerning the ocean, this evidence is mainly restricted to the surface response. Here we use a comprehensive global climate model to study the impact of idealized solar forcing, representing the Gleissberg and de Vries cycles, on global ocean potential temperature at different depth levels, after a recent proxy record indicates a signal of TSI anomalies in the northeastern Atlantic at mid-depth. Potential impacts of TSI anomalies on deeper oceanic levels are climatically relevant due to their possible effect on ocean circulation by altering water mass characteristics. Simulated solar anomalies are shown to penetrate the ocean down to at least deep-water levels. Despite the fact that the two forcing periods differ only by a factor of ~2, the spatial pattern of response is significantly distinctive between the experiments, suggesting different mechanisms for solar signal propagation. These are related to advection by North Atlantic Deep Water flow (200-year forcing), and barotropic adjustment in the South Atlantic in response to a latitudinal shift of the westerly wind belt (90-year forcing).