LPJ-LMfire simulations for Europe for the Last Glacial Maximum and preindustrial control, link to netCDF files

This data sets contains LPJ-LMfire dynamic global vegetation model output covering Europe and the Mediterranean for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka) and for a preindustrial control simulation (20th century detrended climate). The netCDF data files are time averages of the final 30 years of the model simulation. Each netCDF file contains four or five variables: fractional cover of 9 plant functional types (PFTs; cover), total fractional coverage of trees (treecover), population density of hunter-gatherers (foragerPD; only for the "people" simulations), fraction of the gridcell burned on 30-year average (burnedf), and vegetation net primary productivity (NPP). The model spatial resolution is 0.5-degrees For the LGM simulations, LPJ-LMfire was driven by the PMIP3 suite of eight GCMs for which LGM climate simulations were available. Also provided in this archive is the result of an LPJ-LMfire run that was forced by the average climate of all GCMs (the "GCM-mean" files), and the average of each of the individual LPJ-LMfire runs over the eight LGM scenarios individually (the "LPJ-mean" files). The model simulations are provided that include the influence of human presence on the landscape (the "people" files), and in a "world without humans" scenario (the "natural" files). Finally this archive contains the preindustrial reference simulation with and without human influence ("PI_reference_people" and "PI_reference_nat", respectively). There are therefore 22 netCDF files in this archive: 8 each of LGM simulations with and without people (total 16) and the "GCM mean" simulation (2 files) and the "LPJ mean" aggregate (2 files), and finally the two preindustrial "control" simulations ("PI"), with and without humans (2 files). In addition to the LPJ-LMfire model output (netCDF files), this archive also contains a table of arboreal pollen percent calculated from pollen samples dated to the LGM at sites throughout (lgmAP.txt), and a table containing the location of archaeological sites dated to the LGM (LGM_archaeological_site_locations.txt).

(Table 2) Radiocarbon dates of sediment cores obtained during Bio Hespérides cruise SVAIS and OGS Explora cruise EGLACOM between 2007-2008

A high-resolution paleomagnetic and rock magnetic study has been carried out on sediment cores collected in glaciomarine silty-clay sequences from the continental shelf and slope of the southern Storfjorden trough-mouth fan, on the northwestern Barents Sea continental margin. The Storfjorden sedimentary system was investigated during the SVAIS and EGLACOM cruises, when 10 gravity cores, with a variable length from 1.03 m to 6.41 m, were retrieved. Accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C analyses on 24 samples indicate that the cores span a time interval that includes the Holocene, the last deglaciation phase and in some cores the last glacial maximum. The sediments carry a well-defined characteristic remanent magnetization and have a valuable potential to reconstruct the paleosecular variation (PSV) of the geomagnetic field, including relative paleointensity (RPI) variations. The paleomagnetic data allow reconstruction of past dynamics and amplitude of the geomagnetic field variations at high northern latitudes (75°-76° N). At the same time, the rock magnetic and paleomagnetic data allow a high-resolution correlation of the sedimentary sequences and a refinement of their preliminary age models. The Holocene PSV and RPI records appear particularly sound, since they are consistent between cores and they can be correlated to the closest regional stacking curves (UK PSV, FENNOSTACK and FENNORPIS) and global geomagnetic model for the last 7 ka (CALS7k.2). The computed amplitude of secular variation is lower than that outlined by some geomagnetic field models, suggesting that it has been almost independent from latitude during the Holocene.

Carbonate preservation of sediment cores from the Great Bahama Bank

The oceanic carbon cycle mainly comprises the production and dissolution/ preservation of carbonate particles in the water column or within the sediment. Carbon dioxide is one of the major controlling factors for the production and dissolution of carbonate. There is a steady exchange between the ocean and atmosphere in order to achieve an equilibrium of CO2; an anthropogenic rise of CO2 in the atmosphere would therefore also increase the amount of CO2 in the ocean. The increased amount of CO2 in the ocean, due to increasing CO2-emissions into the atmosphere since the industrial revolution, has been interpreted as "ocean acidification" (Caldeira and Wickett, 2003). Its alarming effects, such as dissolution and reduced CaCO3 formation, on reefs and other carbonate shell producing organisms form the topic of current discussions (Kolbert, 2006). Decreasing temperatures and increasing pressure and CO2 enhance the dissolution of carbonate particles at the sediment-water interface in the deep sea. Moreover, dissolution processes are dependent of the saturation state of the surrounding water with respect to calcite or aragonite. Significantly increased dissolution has been observed below the aragonite or calcite chemical lysocline; below the aragonite compensation depth (ACD), or calcite compensation depth (CCD), all aragonite or calcite particles, respectively, are dissolved. Aragonite, which is more prone to dissolution than calcite, features a shallower lysocline and compensation depth than calcite. In the 1980's it was suggested that significant dissolution also occurs in the water column or at the sediment-water interface above the lysocline. Unknown quantities of carbonate produced at the sea surface, would be dissolved due to this process. This would affect the calculation of the carbonate production and the entire carbonate budget of the world's ocean. Following this assumption, a number of studies have been carried out to monitor supralysoclinal dissolution at various locations: at Ceara Rise in the western equatorial Atlantic (Martin and Sayles, 1996), in the Arabian Sea (Milliman et al., 1999), in the equatorial Indian Ocean (Peterson and Prell, 1985; Schulte and Bard, 2003), and in the equatorial Pacific (Kimoto et al., 2003). Despite the evidence for supralysoclinal dissolution in some areas of the world's ocean, the question still exists whether dissolution occurs above the lysocline in the entire ocean. The first part of this thesis seeks answers to this question, based on the global budget model of Milliman et al. (1999). As study area the Bahamas and Florida Straits are most suitable because of the high production of carbonate, and because there the depth of the lysocline is the deepest worldwide. To monitor the occurrence of supralysoclinal dissolution, the preservation of aragonitic pteropod shells was determined, using the Limacina inflata Dissolution Index (LDX; Gerhardt and Henrich, 2001). Analyses of the grain-size distribution, the mineralogy, and the foraminifera assemblage revealed further aspects concerning the preservation state of the sediment. All samples located at the Bahamian platform are well preserved. In contrast, the samples from the Florida Straits show dissolution in 800 to 1000 m and below 1500 m water depth. Degradation of organic material and the subsequent release of CO2 probably causes supralysoclinal dissolution. A northward extension of the corrosive Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) flows through the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico and might enhance dissolution processes at around 1000 m water depth. The second part of this study deals with the preservation of Pliocene to Holocene carbonate sediments from both the windward and leeward basins adjacent to Great Bahama Bank (Ocean Drilling Program Sites 632, 633, and 1006). Detailed census counts of the sand fraction (250-500 µm) show the general composition of the coarse grained sediment. Further methods used to examine the preservation state of carbonates include the amount of organic carbon and various dissolution indices, such as the LDX and the Fragmentation Index. Carbonate concretions (nodules) have been observed in the sand fraction. They are similar to the concretions or aggregates previously mentioned by Mullins et al. (1980a) and Droxler et al. (1988a), respectively. Nonetheless, a detailed study of such grains has not been made to date, although they form an important part of periplatform sediments. Stable isotopemeasurements of the nodules' matrix confirm previous suggestions that the nodules have formed in situ as a result of early diagenetic processes (Mullins et al., 1980a). The two cores, which are located in Exuma Sound (Sites 632 and 633), at the eastern margin of Great Bahama Bank (GBB), show an increasing amount of nodules with increasing core depth. In Pliocene sediments, the amount of nodules might rise up to 100%. In contrast, nodules only occur within glacial stages in the deeper part of the studied core interval (between 30 and 70 mbsf) at Site 1006 on the western margin of GBB. Above this level the sediment is constantly being flushed by bottom water, that might also contain corrosive AAIW, which would hinder cementation. Fine carbonate particles (<63 µm) form the matrix of the nodules and do therefore not contribute to the fine fraction. At the same time, the amount of the coarse fraction (>63 µm) increases due to the nodule formation. The formation of nodules might therefore significantly alter the grain-size distribution of the sediment. A direct comparison of the amount of nodules with the grain-size distribution shows that core intervals with high amounts of nodules are indeed coarser than the intervals with low amounts of nodules. On the other hand, an initially coarser sediment might facilitate the formation of nodules, as a high porosity and permeability enhances early diagenetic processes (Westphal et al., 1999). This suggestion was also confirmed: the glacial intervals at Site 1006 are interpreted to have already been rather coarse prior to the formation of nodules. This assumption is based on the grain-size distribution in the upper part of the core, which is not yet affected by diagenesis, but also shows coarser sediment during the glacial stages. As expected, the coarser, glacial deposits in the lower part of the core show the highest amounts of nodules. The same effect was observed at Site 632, where turbidites cause distinct coarse layers and reveal higher amounts of nodules than non-turbiditic sequences. Site 633 shows a different pattern: both the amount of nodules and the coarseness of the sediment steadily increase with increasing core depth. Based on these sedimentological findings, the following model has been developed: a grain-size pattern characterised by prominent coarse peaks (as observed at Sites 632 and 1006) is barely altered. The greatest coarsening effect due to the nodule formation will occur in those layers, which have initially been coarser than the adjacent sediment intervals. In this case, the overall trend of the grain-size pattern before and after formation of the nodules is similar to each other. Although the sediment is altered due to diagenetic processes, grain size could be used as a proxy for e.g. changes in the bottom-water current. The other case described in the model is based on a consistent initial grain-size distribution, as observed at Site 633. In this case, the nodule reflects the increasing diagenetic alteration with increasing core depth rather than the initial grain-size pattern. In the latter scenario, the overall grain-size trend is significantly changed which makes grain size unreliable as a proxy for any palaeoenvironmental changes. The results of this study contribute to the understanding of general sedimentation processes in the periplatform realm: the preservation state of surface samples shows the influence of supralysoclinal dissolution due to the degradation of organic matter and due to the presence of corrosive water masses; the composition of the sand fraction shows the alteration of the carbonate sediment due to early diagenetic processes. However, open questions are how and when the alteration processes occur and how geochemical parameters, such as the rise in alkalinity or the amount of strontium, are linked to them. These geochemical parameters might reveal more information about the depth in the sediment column, where dissolution and cementation processes occur.

Projections for Land Use Change in Brazil:2000-2050, links to files in ArcGIS shapefile format

This data set contains the inputs and the results of the REDD+ Policy Assessment Centre project (REDD-PAC) project (http://www.redd-pac.org), developed by a consortium of research institutes (IIASA, INPE, IPEA, UNEP-WCMC), supported by Germany's International Climate Initiative. Taking a new land use map of Brazil for 2000 as input, the research team used the global economic model GLOBIOM to project land use changes in Brazil up to 2050. Model projections show that Brazil has the potential to balance its goals of protecting the environment and becoming a major global producer of food and biofuels. The model results were taken into account by Brazilian decision-makers when developing the country's intended nationally determined contribution (INDC).

EOT11a - Global Empirical Ocean Tide model from multi-mission satellite altimetry, with links to model results

EOT11a is a global (E)mpirical (O)cean (T)ide model derived in 2011 by residual analysis of multi-mission satellite (a)ltimeter data. EOT11a includes amplitudes and phases of the main astronomical tides M2, S2, N2, K2, 2N2, O1, K1, P2, and Q1, the non-linear constituent M4, the long period tides Mm and Mf, and the radiational tide S1. Ocean tides as well as loading tides are provided. EOT11a was computed by means of residual tidal analysis of multi-mission altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, ERS-2, ENVISAT, and Jason-1/2, as far as acquired between September 1992 and April 2010. The resolution of 7.5'x7.5' is identical with FES2004 which was used as reference model for the residual tide analysis. The development of EOT11a was funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) under grant BO1228/6-2.

Model-based changes in global annual mean surface temperature change (Delta T_g) and radiative forcing due to land ice albedo changes (Delta R_[LI]) over the last 5 Myr, supplementary material

It is still an open question how equilibrium warming in response to increasing radiative forcing - the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S - depends on background climate. We here present palaeodata-based evidence on the state dependency of S, by using CO2 proxy data together with a 3-D ice-sheet-model-based reconstruction of land ice albedo over the last 5 million years (Myr). We find that the land ice albedo forcing depends non-linearly on the background climate, while any non-linearity of CO2 radiative forcing depends on the CO2 data set used. This non-linearity has not, so far, been accounted for in similar approaches due to previously more simplistic approximations, in which land ice albedo radiative forcing was a linear function of sea level change. The latitudinal dependency of ice-sheet area changes is important for the non-linearity between land ice albedo and sea level. In our set-up, in which the radiative forcing of CO2 and of the land ice albedo (LI) is combined, we find a state dependence in the calculated specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], for most of the Pleistocene (last 2.1 Myr). During Pleistocene intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods, S[CO2,LI] is on average ~ 45 % larger than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. In the Pliocene part of our analysis (2.6-5 Myr BP) the CO2 data uncertainties prevent a well-supported calculation for S[CO2,LI], but our analysis suggests that during times without a large land ice area in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. before 2.82 Myr BP), the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene. We thus find support for a previously proposed state change in the climate system with the widespread appearance of northern hemispheric ice sheets. This study points for the first time to a so far overlooked non-linearity in the land ice albedo radiative forcing, which is important for similar palaeodata-based approaches to calculate climate sensitivity. However, the implications of this study for a suggested warming under CO2 doubling are not yet entirely clear since the details of necessary corrections for other slow feedbacks are not fully known and the uncertainties that exist in the ice-sheet simulations and global temperature reconstructions are large.

Global LAI uncertainty and relative uncertainty datasets derived from a Triple Collocation Error Model (TCEM)

Uncertainty information for global leaf area index (LAI) products is important for global modeling studies but usually difficult to systematically obtain at a global scale. Here, we present a new method that cross-validates existing global LAI products and produces consistent uncertainty information. The method is based on a triple collocation error model (TCEM) that assumes errors among LAI products are not correlated. Global monthly absolute and relative uncertainties, in 0.05° spatial resolutions, were generated for MODIS, CYCLOPES, and GLOBCARBON LAI products, with reasonable agreement in terms of spatial patterns and biome types. CYCLOPES shows the lowest absolute and relative uncertainties, followed by GLOBCARBON and MODIS. Grasses, crops, shrubs, and savannas usually have lower uncertainties than forests in association with the relatively larger forest LAI. With their densely vegetated canopies, tropical regions exhibit the highest absolute uncertainties but the lowest relative uncertainties, the latter of which tend to increase with higher latitudes. The estimated uncertainties of CYCLOPES generally meet the quality requirements (± 0.5) proposed by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), whereas for MODIS and GLOBCARBON only non-forest biome types have met the requirement. Nevertheless, none of the products seems to be within a relative uncertainty requirements of 20%. Further independent validation and comparative studies are expected to provide a fair assessment of uncertainties derived from TCEM. Overall, the proposed TCEM is straightforward and could be automated for the systematic processing of real time remote sensing observations to provide theoretical uncertainty information for a wider range of land products.

Towards convection-resolving, global atmospheric simulations with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) v3.1: an extreme scaling experiment, links to sourcecode of model and grides

The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is a novel set of Earth system simulation components and consists of an atmospheric model, an ocean model and a land-ice model. Its distinct features are the use of unstructured Voronoi meshes and C-grid discretisation to address shortcomings of global models on regular grids and the use of limited area models nested in a forcing data set, with respect to parallel scalability, numerical accuracy and physical consistency. This concept allows one to include the feedback of regional land use information on weather and climate at local and global scales in a consistent way, which is impossible to achieve with traditional limited area modelling approaches. Here, we present an in-depth evaluation of MPAS with regards to technical aspects of performing model runs and scalability for three medium-size meshes on four different high-performance computing (HPC) sites with different architectures and compilers. We uncover model limitations and identify new aspects for the model optimisation that are introduced by the use of unstructured Voronoi meshes. We further demonstrate the model performance of MPAS in terms of its capability to reproduce the dynamics of the West African monsoon (WAM) and its associated precipitation in a pilot study. Constrained by available computational resources, we compare 11-month runs for two meshes with observations and a reference simulation from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We show that MPAS can reproduce the atmospheric dynamics on global and local scales in this experiment, but identify a precipitation excess for the West African region. Finally, we conduct extreme scaling tests on a global 3?km mesh with more than 65 million horizontal grid cells on up to half a million cores. We discuss necessary modifications of the model code to improve its parallel performance in general and specific to the HPC environment. We confirm good scaling (70?% parallel efficiency or better) of the MPAS model and provide numbers on the computational requirements for experiments with the 3?km mesh. In doing so, we show that global, convection-resolving atmospheric simulations with MPAS are within reach of current and next generations of high-end computing facilities.