Lake Baikal amphipods under climate change: Thermal constraints and ecological consequences, links to supplementary material

Lake Baikal, the world's most voluminous freshwater lake, has experienced unprecedented warming during the last decades. A uniquely diverse amphipod fauna inhabits the littoral zone and can serve as a model system to identify the role of thermal tolerance under climate change. This study aimed to identify sublethal thermal constraints in two of the most abundant endemic Baikal amphipods, Eulimnogammarus verrucosus and Eulimnogammarus cyaneus, and Gammarus lacustris, a ubiquitous gammarid of the Holarctic. As the latter is only found in some shallow isolated bays of the lake, we further addressed the question whether rising temperatures could promote the widespread invasion of this non-endemic species into the littoral zone. Animals were exposed to gradual temperature increases (4 week, 0.8 °C/d; 24 h, 1 °C/h) starting from the reported annual mean temperature of the Baikal littoral (6 °C). Within the framework of oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT), we used a nonlinear regression approach to determine the points at which the changing temperature-dependence of relevant physiological processes indicates the onset of limitation. Limitations in ventilation representing the first limits of thermal tolerance (pejus (= "getting worse") temperatures (Tp)) were recorded at 10.6 (95% confidence interval; 9.5, 11.7), 19.1 (17.9, 20.2), and 21.1 (19.8, 22.4) °C in E. verrucosus, E. cyaneus, and G. lacustris, respectively. Field observations revealed that E. verrucosus retreated from the upper littoral to deeper and cooler waters once its Tp was surpassed, identifying Tp as the ecological thermal boundary. Constraints in oxygen consumption at higher than critical temperatures (Tc) led to an exponential increase in mortality in all species. Exposure to short-term warming resulted in higher threshold values, consistent with a time dependence of thermal tolerance. In conclusion, species-specific limits to oxygen supply capacity are likely key in the onset of constraining (beyond pejus) and then life-threatening (beyond critical) conditions. Ecological consequences of these limits are mediated through behavioral plasticity in E. verrucosus. However, similar upper thermal limits in E. cyaneus (endemic, Baikal) and G. lacustris (ubiquitous, Holarctic) indicate that the potential invader G. lacustris would not necessarily benefit from rising temperatures. Secondary effects of increasing temperatures remain to be investigated.

Habitat Maps derived from Point Lookout Ecological Surveys (PLEA) of the Shag Rock, Manta Ray Bommie and Flat Rock dive sites at Point Lookout, North Stradbroke Island, Australia, in 2014, in ArcGIS (shapefile) format

In 2014, UniDive (The University of Queensland Underwater Club) conducted an ecological assessment of the Point Lookout Dive sites for comparison with similar surveys conducted in 2001 - the PLEA project. Involvement in the project was voluntary. Members of UniDive who were marine experts conducted training for other club members who had no, or limited, experience in identifying marine organisms and mapping habitats. Since the 2001 detailed baseline study, no similar seasonal survey has been conducted. The 2014 data is particularly important given that numerous changes have taken place in relation to the management of, and potential impacts on, these reef sites. In 2009, Moreton Bay Marine Park was re-zoned, and Flat Rock was converted to a marine national park zone (Green zone) with no fishing or anchoring. In 2012, four permanent moorings were installed at Flat Rock. Additionally, the entire area was exposed to the potential effects of the 2011 and 2013 Queensland floods, including flood plumes which carried large quantities of sediment into Moreton Bay and surrounding waters. The population of South East Queensland has increased from 2.49 million in 2001 to 3.18 million in 2011 (BITRE, 2013). This rapidly expanding coastal population has increased the frequency and intensity of both commercial and recreational activities around Point Lookout dive sites (EPA 2008). Habitats were mapped using a combination of towed GPS photo transects, aerial photography and expert knowledge. This data provides georeferenced information regarding the major features of each of the Point Lookout Dive Sites.

Ecological assessment data of the marine flora and fauna of Point Lookout in 2014 (PLEA)

In 2014, UniDive (The University of Queensland Underwater Club) conducted an ecological assessment of the Point Lookout Dive sites for comparison with similar surveys conducted in 2001. Involvement in the project was voluntary. Members of UniDive who were marine experts conducted training for other club members who had no, or limited, experience in identifying marine organisms and mapping habitats. Since the 2001 detailed baseline study, no similar seasonal survey has been conducted. The 2014 data is particularly important given that numerous changes have taken place in relation to the management of, and potential impacts on, these reef sites. In 2009, Moreton Bay Marine Park was re-zoned, and Flat Rock was converted to a marine national park zone (Green zone) with no fishing or anchoring. In 2012, four permanent moorings were installed at Flat Rock. Additionally, the entire area was exposed to the potential effects of the 2011 and 2013 Queensland floods, including flood plumes which carried large quantities of sediment into Moreton Bay and surrounding waters. The population of South East Queensland has increased from 2.49 million in 2001 to 3.18 million in 2011 (BITRE, 2013). This rapidly expanding coastal population has increased the frequency and intensity of both commercial and recreational activities around Point Lookout dive sites (EPA 2008). Methodology used for the PLEA project was based on the 2001 survey protocols, Reef Check Australia protocols and Coral Watch methods. This hybrid methodology was used to monitor substrate and benthos, invertebrates, fish, and reef health impacts. Additional analyses were conducted with georeferenced photo transects. The PLEA marine surveys were conducted over six weekends in 2014 totaling 535 dives and 376 hours underwater. Two training weekends (February and March) were attended by 44 divers, whilst biological surveys were conducted on seasonal weekends (February, May, July and October). Three reefs were surveyed, with two semi-permanent transects at Flat Rock, two at Shag Rock, and one at Manta Ray Bommie. Each transect was sampled once every survey weekend, with the transect tapes deployed at a depth of 10 m below chart datum. Fish populations were assessed using a visual census along 3 x 20 m transects. Each transect was 5 m wide (2.5 m either side of the transect tape), 5 m high and 20 m in length. Fish families and species were chosen that are commonly targeted by recreational or commercial fishers, or targeted by aquarium collectors, and that were easily identified by their body shape. Rare or otherwise unusual species were also recorded. Target invertebrate populations were assessed using visual census along 3 x 20 m transects. Each transect was 5 m wide (2.5 m either side of the transect tape) and 20 m in length. The diver surveying invertebrates conducted a 'U-shaped' search pattern, covering 2.5 m on either side of the transect tape. Target impacts were assessed using a visual census along the 3 x 20 m transects. Each transect was 5 m wide (2.5 m either side of the transect tape) and 20 m in length. The transect was surveyed via a 'U-shaped' search pattern, covering 2.5 m on either side of the transect tape. Substrate surveys were conducted using the point sampling method, enabling percentage cover of substrate types and benthic organisms to be calculated. The substrate or benthos under the transect line was identified at 0.5m intervals, with a 5m gap between each of the three 20m segments. Categories recorded included various growth forms of hard and soft coral, key species/growth forms of algae, other living organisms (i.e. sponges), recently killed coral, and, non-living substrate types (i.e. bare rock, sand, rubble, silt/clay).

Pollen analysis of surface sediment off northwest Africa

Over 100 samples of recent surface sediments from the bottomn of the Atlantic Ocean offshore NW Africa between 34° and 6° N have been analysed palynologically. The objective of this study was to reveal the relation between source areas, transport systems, and resulting distribution patterns of pollen and spores in marine sediments off NW Africa, in order to lay a sound foundation for the interpretation of pollen records of marine cores from this area. The clear zonation of the NW-African vegetation (due to the distinct climatic gradient) is helpful in determining main source areas, and the presence of some major wind belts facilitates the registration of the average course of wind trajectories. The present circulation pattern is driven by the intertropical front (ITCZ) which shifts over the continent between c. 22° N (summer position) and c. 4° N (winter position) in the course of the year. Determination of the period of main pollen release and the average atmospheric circulation pattern effective at that time of the years is of prime importance. The distribution patterns in recent marine sediments of pollen of a series of genera and families appear to record climatological/ecological variables, such as the trajectory of the NE trade, January trades, African Easterly Jet (Saharan Air Layer), the northernmost and southernmost position of the intertropical convergence zone, and the extent and latitudinal situation of the NW-African vegetation belt. Pollen analysis of a series of dated deep-sea cores taken between c. 35° and the equator off NW African enable the construction of paleo-distribution maps for time slices of the past, forming a register of paleoclimatological/paleoecological information.