38 resultados para coefficient of determination


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In this study, the Mean Transit Time and Mixing Model Analysis methods are combined to unravel the runoff generation process of the San Francisco River basin (73.5 km**2) situated on the Amazonian side of the Cordillera Real in the southernmost Andes of Ecuador. The montane basin is covered with cloud forest, sub-páramo, pasture and ferns. Nested sampling was applied for the collection of streamwater samples and discharge measurements in the main tributaries and outlet of the basin, and for the collection of soil and rock water samples. Weekly to biweekly water grab samples were taken at all stations in the period April 2007-November 2008. Hydrometric data, Mean Transit Time and Mixing Model Analysis allowed preliminary evaluation of the processes controlling the runoff in the San Francisco River basin. Results suggest that flow during dry conditions mainly consists of lateral flow through the C-horizon and cracks in the top weathered bedrock layer, and that all subcatchments have an important contribution of this deep water to runoff, no matter whether pristine or deforested. During normal to low precipitation intensities, when antecedent soil moisture conditions favour water infiltration, vertical flow paths to deeper soil horizons with subsequent lateral subsurface flow contribute most to streamflow. Under wet conditions in forested catchments, streamflow is controlled by near surface lateral flow through the organic horizon. Exceptionally, saturation excess overland flow occurs. By absence of the litter layer in pasture, streamflow under wet conditions originates from the A horizon, and overland flow.

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Terrestrial permafrost archives along the Yukon Coastal Plain (northwest Canada) have recorded landscape development and environmental change since the Late Wisconsinan at the interface of unglaciated Beringia (i.e. Komakuk Beach) and the northwestern limit of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (i.e. Herschel Island). The objective of this paper is to compare the late glacial and Holocene landscape development on both sides of the former ice margin based on permafrost sequences and ground ice. Analyses at these sites involved a multi-proxy approach including: sedimentology, cryostratigraphy, palaeoecology of ostracods, stable water isotopes in ground ice, hydrochemistry, and AMS radiocarbon and infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) dating. AMS and IRSL age determinations yielded full glacial ages at Komakuk Beach that is the northeastern limit of ice-free Beringia. Herschel Island to the east marks the Late Wisconsinan limit of the northwest Laurentide Ice Sheet and is composed of ice-thrust sediments containing plant detritus as young as 16.2 cal ka BP that might provide a maximum age on ice arrival. Late Wisconsinan ice wedges with sediment-rich fillings on Herschel Island are depleted in heavy oxygen isotopes (mean d18O of -29.1 per mil); this, together with low d-excess values, indicates colder-than-modern winter temperatures and probably reduced snow depths. Grain-size distribution and fossil ostracod assemblages indicate that deglaciation of the Herschel Island ice-thrust moraine was accompanied by alluvial, proluvial, and eolian sedimentation on the adjacent unglaciated Yukon Coastal Plain until ~11 cal ka BP during a period of low glacio-eustatic sea level. The late glacial-Holocene transition was marked by higher-than-modern summer temperatures leading to permafrost degradation that began no later than 11.2 cal ka BP and caused a regional thaw unconformity. Cryostructures and ice wedges were truncated while organic matter was incorporated and soluble ions were leached in the thaw zone. Thermokarst activity led to the formation of ice-wedge casts and deposition of thermokarst lake sediments. These were subsequently covered by rapidly accumulating peat during the early Holocene Thermal Maximum. A rising permafrost table, reduced peat accumulation, and extensive ice-wedge growth resulted from climate cooling starting in the middle Holocene until the late 20th century. The reconstruction of palaeolandscape dynamics on the Yukon Coastal Plain and the eastern Beringian edge contributes to unraveling the linkages between ice sheet, ocean, and permafrost that have existed since the Late Wisconsinan.

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Herschel Island in the southern Beaufort Sea is a push moraine at the northwestern-most limit of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Stable water isotope (d18O, dD) and hydrochemical studies were applied to two tabular massive ground ice bodies to unravel their genetic origin. Buried glacier ice or basal regelation ice was encountered beneath an ice-rich diamicton with strong glaciotectonic deformation structures. The massive ice isotopic composition was highly depleted in heavy isotopes (mean d18O: -33 per mil; mean dD: -258 per mil), suggesting full-glacial conditions during ice formation. Other massive ice of unknown origin with a very large d18O range (from -39 to -21 per mil) was found adjacent to large, striated boulders. A clear freezing slope was present with progressive depletion in heavy isotopes towards the centre of the ice body. Fractionation must have taken place during closed-system freezing, possibly of a glacial meltwater pond. Both massive ground ice bodies exhibited a mixed ion composition suggestive of terrestrial waters with a marine influence. Hydrochemical signatures resemble the Herschel Island sediments that are derived from nearshore marine deposits upthrust by the Laurentide ice. A prolonged contact between water feeding the ice bodies and the surrounding sediment is therefore inferred.

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Phytoplankton and copepod succession was investigated in Disko Bay, western Greenland from February to July 2008. The spring phytoplankton bloom developed immediately after the breakup of sea ice and reached a peak concentration of 24 mg chl a/m**3 2 wk later. The bloom was analyzed during 3 phases: the developing, the decaying, and the post-bloom phases. Grazing impact by the copepod community was assessed by 4 methods; gut fluorescence, in situ faecal pellet production, and egg and faecal pellet production from bottle incubations. Calanus spp. dominated the mesozooplankton community. They were present from the initiation of the bloom but only had a small grazing impact on the phytoplankton. Consequently, there was a close coupling between the spring phytoplankton bloom and sedimentation of particulate organic carbon (POC). Out of 1836 ±180 mg C/m**2/d leaving the upper 50 m, 60 % was phytoplankton based carbon (PPC). The composition and quality of the sedimenting material changed throughout the bloom succession from PPC dominance in the initial phase with a POC/PON ratio close to 6.6 to a dominance of amorphous detritus with a higher POC/PON ratio (>10) in the post-bloom phase. The succession and fate of the phytoplankton spring bloom was controlled by nitrogen limitation and subsequent sedimentation, while grazing-mediated flux by the Calanus-dominated copepod community played a minor role in the termination of the spring bloom of Disko Bay.

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Oxygen concentration and rate of change of oxygen were measured using the Unisense Oxygen Microsensor System. Water from different depth was taken from CTD attached niskin bottle. Measurements were conducted in 2 ml vials provided by Unisense and lasted for a minimum of two minutes after a stable rate was achieved. The sampling interval was 6 seconds. Transport containers, tubes and vials for measurements were covered with light proof black foil for dark-measurements. Measurements labeled "unfiltered" were passed through a 200 µm sieve in order to remove potential biases stemming from individual meso-zooplankton. Measurements labeled "filtered" were passed through a 0.8 µm polycarbonate filter placed on top of a wetted GF/F filter.

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Oxygen concentration and rate of change of oxygen were measured using the Unisense Oxygen Microsensor System. Water from different depth was taken from CTD attached niskin bottle. Measurements were conducted in 2 ml vials provided by Unisense and lasted for a minimum of two minutes after a stable rate was achieved. The sampling interval was 6 seconds. Transport containers, tubes and vials for measurements were covered with light proof black foil for dark-measurements.

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Coccolithophores are a group of unicellular phytoplankton species whose ability to calcify has a profound influence on biogeochemical element cycling. Calcification rates are controlled by a large variety of biotic and abiotic factors. Among these factors, carbonate chemistry has gained considerable attention during the last years as coccolithophores have been identified to be particularly sensitive to ocean acidification. Despite intense research in this area, a general concept harmonizing the numerous and sometimes (seemingly) contradictory responses of coccolithophores to changing carbonate chemistry is still lacking to date. Here, we present the "substrate-inhibitor concept" which describes the dependence of calcification rates on carbonate chemistry speciation. It is based on observations that calcification rate scales positively with bicarbonate (HCO3-), the primary substrate for calcification, and carbon dioxide (CO2), which can limit cell growth, whereas it is inhibited by protons (H+). This concept was implemented in a model equation, tested against experimental data, and then applied to understand and reconcile the diverging responses of coccolithophorid calcification rates to ocean acidification obtained in culture experiments. Furthermore, we (i) discuss how other important calcification-influencing factors (e.g. temperature and light) could be implemented in our concept and (ii) embed it in Hutchinson's niche theory, thereby providing a framework for how carbonate chemistry-induced changes in calcification rates could be linked with changing coccolithophore abundance in the oceans. Our results suggest that the projected increase of H+ in the near future (next couple of thousand years), paralleled by only a minor increase of inorganic carbon substrate, could impede calcification rates if coccolithophores are unable to fully adapt. However, if calcium carbonate (CaCO3) sediment dissolution and terrestrial weathering begin to increase the oceans' HCO3- and decrease its H+ concentrations in the far future (10 -100 kyears), coccolithophores could find themselves in carbonate chemistry conditions which may be more favorable for calcification than they were before the Anthropocene.

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We investigate the mechanics of slope failures on the Nankai accretionary complex offshore Japan in the vicinity of a major out-of-sequence thrust fault (termed the "megasplay"). Incorporating laboratory-measured shear strength of slope sediments sampled during Integrated Ocean Drilling Project (IODP) Expeditions 315 and 316 with local seafloor slope angles from bathymetric data and constraints on in-situ effective stress conditions from drilling, we find that slopes in the study area are stable and submarine landslides are not expected to occur under static conditions. In order to assess the possibility of slope failure triggered by coseismic rupture of the megasplay fault, we use empirical relations for strong ground motion attenuation from earthquakes with Mw 6-9. We find that the slope sediments should be stable based on computations from one model, developed from a catalog of worldwide subduction zone earthquakes (Youngs et al., 1997, doi:10.1785/gssrl.68.1.58). However, using a different model developed primarily from a catalog of crustal earthquakes in Japan (Kanno et al., 2006, doi:10.1785/0120050138), we find that slopes should be unstable for earthquakes 8 <= Mw <= 9, and possibly unstable for events with 6 <= Mw < 8, depending on the proximity of rupture to the seafloor. Considering limitations of the models and geologic observations of slope failure recurrence, the true slope stability is likely to be in between the predictions of the two models, and we suggest that it may be modulated by long-term pore pressure fluctuations.

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Barrow, the northernmost point in Alaska, is one of the most intensively studied areas in the Arctic. However, paleoenvironmental evidence is limited for northern Alaska for the Lateglacial-Holocene transition. For a regional paleoenvironmental reconstruction, we investigated a permafrost ice-wedge tunnel near Barrow, Alaska. The studied site was first excavated in the early 1960s and intercepts a buried ice-wedge system at 3-6 m depth below the surface. A multi-methodological approach was applied to this buried ice-wedge system and the enclosing sediments, which in their combination, give new insight into the Late Quaternary environmental and climate history. Results of geochronological, sedimentological, cryolithological, paleoecological, isotope geochemical and microbiological studies reflect different stages of mid to late Wisconsin (MW to LW), Allerod (AD), Younger Dryas (YD), Preboreal (PB), and Late Holocene paleoenvironmental evolution. The LW age of the site is indicated by AMS dates in the surrounding sediments of 21.7 kyr BP at the lateral contact of the ice-wedge system as well as 39.5 kyr BP below the ice-wedge system. It is only recently that in this region, stable isotope techniques have been employed, i.e. to characterize different types of ground ice. The stable isotope record (oxygen: d18O; hydrogen: dD) of two intersecting ice wedges suggests different phases of the northern Alaskan climate history from AD to PB, with radiocarbon dates from 12.4 to 9.9 kyr BP (ranging from 14.8 to 10.6 kyr cal BP). Stable isotope geochemistry of ice wedges reveals winter temperature variations of the Lateglacial-Holocene transition including a prominent YD cold period, clearly separated from the warmer AD and PB phases. YD is only weakly developed in summer temperature indicators (such as pollen) for the northern Alaska area, and by consequence, the YD cold stadial was here especially related to the winter season. This highlights that the combination of winter and summer indicators comprehensively describes the seasonality of climate-relevant processes in discrete time intervals. The stable isotope record for the Barrow buried ice-wedge system documents for the first time winter climate change at the Lateglacial-Holocene transition continuously and at relatively high (likely centennial) resolution.

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Respiration rates of 16 calanoid copepod species from the northern Benguela upwelling system were measured on board RRS Discovery in September/October 2010 to determine their energy requirements and assess their significance in the carbon cycle. Copepod species were sampled by different net types. Immediately after the hauls, samples were sorted to species and stages (16 species; females, males and C5 copepodids) according to Bradford-Grieve et al. (1999). Specimens were kept in temperature-controlled refrigerators for at least 12 h before they were used in experiments. Respiration rates of different copepod species were measured onboard by optode respirometry (for details see Köster et al., 2008) with a 10-channel optode respirometer (PreSens Precision Sensing Oxy-10 Mini, Regensburg, Germany) under simulated in situ conditions in temperature-controlled refrigerators. Experiments were run in gas-tight glass bottles (12-13 ml). For each set of experiments, two controls without animals were measured under exactly the same conditions to compensate for potential bias. The number of animals per bottle depended on the copepods size, stage and metabolic activity. Animals were not fed during the experiments but they showed natural species-specific movements. Immediately after the experiments, all specimens were deep-frozen at - 80 °C for later dry mass determination (after lyophilisation for 48 h) in the home lab. The carbon content (% of dry mass) of each species was measured by mass-spectrometry in association with stable isotope analysis and body dry mass was converted to units of carbon. For species without available carbon data, the mean value of all copepod species (44% dry mass) was applied. For the estimation of carbon requirements of copepod species, individual oxygen consumption rates were converted to carbon units, assuming that the expiration of 1 ml oxygen mobilises 0.44 mg of organic carbon by using a respiratory quotient (RQ) of 0.82 for a mixed diet consisting of proteins (RQ = 0.8-1.0), lipids (RQ = 0.7) and carbohydrates (RQ = 1.0) (Auel and Werner, 2003). The carbon ingestion rates were calculated using the energy budget and the potential maximum ingestion rate approach. To allow for physiological comparisons of respiration rates of deep- and shallow-living copepod species without the effects of ambient temperature and different individual body mass, individual respiration rates were temperature- (15°C, Q10=2) and size-adjusted. The scaling coefficient of 0.76 (R2=0.556) is used for the standardisation of body dry mass to 0.3 mg (mean dry mass of all analysed copepods), applying the allometric equation R= (R15°C/M0.76)×0.30.76, where R is respiration and M is individual dry mass in mg.