20 resultados para Uncertainty with Respect to the Future


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Manganese nodules of the Clarion-Clipperton Fracture Zone (CCFZ) in the NE Pacific Ocean are highly enriched in Ni, Cu, Co, Mo and rare-earth elements, and thus may be the subject of future mining operations. Elucidating the depositional and biogeochemical processes that contribute to nodule formation, as well as the respective redox environment in both, water column and sediment, supports our ability to locate future nodule deposits and evaluates the potential ecological and environmental effects of future deep-sea mining. For these purposes we evaluated the local hydrodynamics and pore-water geochemistry with respect to the nodule coverage at four sites in the eastern CCFZ. Furthermore, we carried out selective leaching experiments at these sites in order to assess the potential mobility of Mn in the solid phase, and compared them with the spatial variations in sedimentation rates. We found that the oxygen penetration depth is 180 - 300 cm at all four sites, while reduction of Mn and NO3- is only significant below the oxygen penetration depth at sites with small or no nodules on the sediment surface. At the site without nodules, potential microbial respiration rates, determined by incubation experiments using 14C-labelled acetate, are slightly higher than at sites with nodules. Leaching experiments showed that surface sediments covered with big or medium-sized nodules are enriched in mobilizable Mn. Our deep oxygen measurements and pore-water data suggest that hydrogenetic and oxic-diagenetic processes control the present-day nodule growth at these sites, since free manganese from deeper sediments is unable to reach the sediment surface. We propose that the observed strong lateral contrasts in nodule size and abundance are sensitive to sedimentation rates, which in turn, are controlled by small-scale variations in seafloor topography and bottom-water current intensity.

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We present results from a field study of inorganic carbon (C) acquisition by Ross Sea phytoplankton during Phaeocystis-dominated early season blooms. Isotope disequilibrium experiments revealed that HCO3? was the primary inorganic C source for photosynthesis in all phytoplankton assemblages. From these experiments, we also derived relative enhancement factors for HCO3?/CO2 interconversion as a measure of extracellular carbonic anhydrase activity (eCA). The enhancement factors ranged from 1.0 (no apparent eCA activity) to 6.4, with an overall mean of 2.9. Additional eCA measurements, made using membrane inlet mass spectrometry (MIMS), yielded activities ranging from 2.4 to 6.9 U/[?g chl a] (mean 4.1). Measurements of short-term C-fixation parameters revealed saturation kinetics with respect to external inorganic carbon, with a mean half-saturation constant for inorganic carbon uptake (K1/2) of ~380 ?M. Comparison of our early springtime results with published data from late-season Ross Sea assemblages showed that neither HCO3? utilization nor eCA activity was significantly correlated to ambient CO2 levels or phytoplankton taxonomic composition. We did, however, observe a strong negative relationship between surface water pCO2 and short-term 14C-fixation rates for the early season survey. Direct incubation experiments showed no statistically significant effects of pCO2 (10 to 80 Pa) on relative HCO3? utilization or eCA activity. Our results provide insight into the seasonal regulation of C uptake by Ross Sea phytoplankton across a range of pCO2 and phytoplankton taxonomic composition.

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Different parameterizations of subgrid-scale fluxes are utilized in a nonhydrostatic and anelastic mesoscale model to study their influence on simulated Arctic cold air outbreaks. A local closure, a profile closure and two nonlocal closure schemes are applied, including an improved scheme, which is based on other nonlocal closures. It accounts for continuous subgrid-scale fluxes at the top of the surface layer and a continuous Prandtl number with respect to stratification. In the limit of neutral stratification the improved scheme gives eddy diffusivities similar to other parameterizations, whereas for strong unstable stratifications they become much larger and thus turbulent transports are more efficient. It is shown by comparison of model results with observations that the application of simple nonlocal closure schemes results in a more realistic simulation of a convective boundary layer than that of a local or a profile closure scheme. Improvements are due to the nonlocal formulation of the eddy diffusivities and to the inclusion of heat transport, which is independent of local gradients (countergradient transport).

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A circumpolar representative and consistent wetland map is required for a range of applications ranging from upscaling of carbon fluxes and pools to climate modelling and wildlife habitat assessment. Currently available data sets lack sufficient accuracy and/or thematic detail in many regions of the Arctic. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data from satellites have already been shown to be suitable for wetland mapping. Envisat Advanced SAR (ASAR) provides global medium-resolution data which are examined with particular focus on spatial wetness patterns in this study. It was found that winter minimum backscatter values as well as their differences to summer minimum values reflect vegetation physiognomy units of certain wetness regimes. Low winter backscatter values are mostly found in areas vegetated by plant communities typically for wet regions in the tundra biome, due to low roughness and low volume scattering caused by the predominant vegetation. Summer to winter difference backscatter values, which in contrast to the winter values depend almost solely on soil moisture content, show expected higher values for wet regions. While the approach using difference values would seem more reasonable in order to delineate wetness patterns considering its direct link to soil moisture, it was found that a classification of winter minimum backscatter values is more applicable in tundra regions due to its better separability into wetness classes. Previous approaches for wetland detection have investigated the impact of liquid water in the soil on backscatter conditions. In this study the absence of liquid water is utilized. Owing to a lack of comparable regional to circumpolar data with respect to thematic detail, a potential wetland map cannot directly be validated; however, one might claim the validity of such a product by comparison with vegetation maps, which hold some information on the wetness status of certain classes. It was shown that the Envisat ASAR-derived classes are related to wetland classes of conventional vegetation maps, indicating its applicability; 30% of the land area north of the treeline was identified as wetland while conventional maps recorded 1-7%.

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Requirements for space based monitoring of permafrost features had been already defined within the IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report at the start of the IPY in 2007 (IGOS, 2007). The WMO Polar Space Task Group (PSTG, http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/sat/pstg_en.php) identified the need to review the requirements for permafrost monitoring and to update these requirements in 2013. Relevant surveys with focus on satellite data are already available from the ESA DUE Permafrost User requirements survey (2009), the United States National Research Council (2014) and the ESA - CliC - IPA - GTN -P workshop in February 2014. These reports have been reviewed and specific needs discussed within the community and a white paper submitted to the WMO PSTG. Acquisition requirements for monitoring of especially terrain changes (incl. rock glaciers and coastal erosion) and lakes (extent, ice properties etc.) with respect to current satellite missions have been specified. About 50 locations ('cold spots') where permafrost (Arctic and Antarctic) in situ monitoring has been taking place for many years or where field stations are currently established have been identified. These sites have been proposed to the WMO Polar Space Task Group as focus areas for future monitoring by high resolution satellite data. The specifications of these sites including meta-data on site instrumentation have been published as supplement to the white paper (Bartsch et al. 2014, doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.847003). The representativity of the 'cold spots' around the arctic has been in the following assessed based on a landscape units product which has been developed as part of the FP7 project PAGE21. The ESA DUE Permafrost service has been utilized to produce a pan-arctic database (25km, 2000-2014) comprising Mean Annual Surface Temperature, Annual and summer Amplitude of Surface Temperature, Mean Summer (July-August) Surface Temperature. Surface status (frozen/unfrozen) related products have been also derived from the ESA DUE Permafrost service. This includes the length of unfrozen period, first unfrozen day and first frozen day. In addition, SAR (ENVISAT ASAR GM) statistics as well as topographic parameters have been considered. The circumpolar datasets have been assessed for their redundancy in information content. 12 distinct units could be derived. The landscape units reveal similarities between North Slope Alaska and the region from the Yamal Peninsula to the Yenisei estuary. Northern Canada is characterized by the same landscape units like western Siberia. North-eastern Canada shows similarities to the Laptev coast region. This paper presents the result of this assessment and formulates recommendations for extensions of the in situ monitoring networks and categorizes the sites by satellite data requirements (specifically Sentinels) with respect to the landscape type and related processes.