Probability inundation map for a scenario combining storm surge and sea-level rise

Coastal managers require reliable spatial data on the extent and timing of potential coastal inundation, particularly in a changing climate. Most sea level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are undertaken using the easily implemented bathtub approach, where areas adjacent to the sea and below a given elevation are mapped using a deterministic line dividing potentially inundated from dry areas. This method only requires elevation data usually in the form of a digital elevation model (DEM). However, inherent errors in the DEM and spatial analysis of the bathtub model propagate into the inundation mapping. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of spatially variable and spatially correlated elevation errors in high-spatial resolution DEMs for mapping coastal inundation. Elevation errors were best modelled using regression-kriging. This geostatistical model takes the spatial correlation in elevation errors into account, which has a significant impact on analyses that include spatial interactions, such as inundation modelling. The spatial variability of elevation errors was partially explained by land cover and terrain variables. Elevation errors were simulated using sequential Gaussian simulation, a Monte Carlo probabilistic approach. 1,000 error simulations were added to the original DEM and reclassified using a hydrologically correct bathtub method. The probability of inundation to a scenario combining a 1 in 100 year storm event over a 1 m SLR was calculated by counting the proportion of times from the 1,000 simulations that a location was inundated. This probabilistic approach can be used in a risk-aversive decision making process by planning for scenarios with different probabilities of occurrence. For example, results showed that when considering a 1% probability exceedance, the inundated area was approximately 11% larger than mapped using the deterministic bathtub approach. The probabilistic approach provides visually intuitive maps that convey uncertainties inherent to spatial data and analysis.

Stable oxygen isotope and Mg/Ca ratios of planktonic foraminifera from the Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum

We measured oxygen isotopes and Mg/Ca ratios in the surface-dwelling planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber (white s.s.) and the thermocline dweller Pulleniatina obliquiloculata to investigate upper ocean spatial variability in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP). We focused on three critical time intervals: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 18-21.5 ka), the early Holocene (8-9 ka), and the late Holocene (0-2 ka). Our records from 24 stations in the South China Sea, Timor Sea, Indonesian seas, and western Pacific indicate overall dry and cool conditions in the IPWP during the LGM with a low thermal gradient between surface and thermocline waters. During the early Holocene, sea surface temperatures increased by ~3°C over the entire region, indicating intensification of the IPWP. However, in the eastern Indian Ocean (Timor Sea), the thermocline gradually shoaled from the LGM to early Holocene, reflecting intensification of the subsurface Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). Increased surface salinity in the South China Sea during the Holocene appears related to northward displacement of the monsoonal rain belt over the Asian continent together with enhanced influx of saltier Pacific surface water through the Luzon Strait and freshwater export through the Java Sea. Opening of the freshwater portal through the Java Sea in the early Holocene led to a change in the vertical structure of the ITF from surface- to thermocline-dominated flow and to substantial freshening of Timor Sea thermocline waters.

Carbon and Lead chemistry of sediments from the Middle Atlantic Bight

A mass budget was constructed for organic carbon on the upper slope of the Middle Atlantic Bight, a region thought to serve as a depocenter for fine-grained material exported from the adjacent shelf. Various components of the budget are internally consistent, and observed differences can be attributed to natural spatial variability or to the different time scales over which measurements were made. The flux of organic carbon to the sediments in the core of the depocenter zone, at a water depth of 1000 m, was measured with sediment traps to be 65 mg C m**-2 day**-1, of which 6-24 mg C m**-2 day**-1 is buried. Oxygen fluxes into the sediments, measured with incubation chambers attached to a free vehicle lander, correspond to total carbon remineralization rates of 49-70 mg C m**-2 day**-1. Carbon remineralization rates estimated from gradients of Corg within the mixed layer, and from gradients of dissolved ammonia and phosphate in pore waters, sum to only 4-6 mg C m**-2 day**-1. Most of the Corg remineralization in slope sediments is mediated by bacteria and takes place within a few mm of the sediment-water interface. Most of the Corg deposited on the upper slope sediments is supplied by lateral transport from other regions, but even if all of this material were derived from the adjacent shelf, it represents <2% of the mean annual shelf productivity. This value is further lowered by recognizing that as much as half of the Corg deposited on the slope is refractory, having originated by reworking from older deposits. Refractory Corg arrives at the sea bed with an average 14C age 600-900 years older than the pre-bomb 14C age of DIC in seawater, and has a mean life in the sediments with respect to biological remineralization of at least 1000 years. Labile carbon supplied to the slope, on the other hand, is rapidly and (virtually) completely remineralized, with a mean life of < 1 year. Carbon-14 ages of fine-grained carbonate and organic carbon present within the interstices of shelf sands are consistent with this material acting as a source for the old carbon supplied to the slope. Winnowing and export of reworked carbon may contribute to the often-described relationship between organic carbon preservation and accumulation rate of marine sediments.

Part of the global DOC versus AOU (dissolved organic carbon/apparent oxygen utilization) data compilation, Ross Sea

Dissolved and particulate organic matter was measured during six cruises to the southern Ross Sea. The cruises were conducted during late austral winter to autumn from 1994 to 1997 and included coverage of various stages of the seasonal phytoplankton bloom. The data from the various years are compiled into a representative seasonal cycle in order to assess general patterns of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and particulate organic matter (POM) dynamics in the southern Ross Sea. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and particulate organic carbon (POC) were at background concentrations of approximately 42 and 3 µM C, respectively, during the late winter conditions in October. As the spring phytoplankton bloom progressed, organic matter increased, and by January DOC and POC reached as high as 30 and 107 µM C, respectively, in excess of initial wintertime conditions. Stocks and concentrations of DOC and POC returned to near background values by autumn (April). Approximately 90% of the accumulated organic matter was partitioned into POM, with modest net accumulation of DOM stocks despite large net organic matter production and the dominance of Phaeocystis antarctica. Changes in NO3 concentration from wintertime values were used to calculate the equivalent biological drawdown of dissolved inorganic carbon (DICequiv). The fraction of DICequiv drawdown resulting in net DOC production was relatively constant (ca. 11%), despite large temporal and spatial variability in DICequiv drawdown. The C : N (molar ratio) of the seasonally produced DOM had a geometric mean of 6.2 and was nitrogen-rich compared to background DOM. The DOM stocks that accumulate in excess of deep refractory background stocks are often referred to as "semi-labile" DOM. The "semi-labile" pool in the Ross Sea turns over on timescales of about 6 months. As a result of the modest net DOM production and its lability, the role DOM plays in export to the deep sea is small in this region.

Comparison of accumulation rates and stable isotope ratios

Since 1979/80, glaciological studies have been carried out at Ekströmisen, Antarctica, including accumulation-stake measurements, snow-pit and shallow-firn-core studies. Snowstratigraphy, chemical properties and stable-isotope ratios (d18O) were investigated. This study focuses on three cores taken between 1982 and 1998. The 1998 core was dated using dielectric profiling, d18O profiles and stake measurements. Accumulation rates showhigh interannual and spatial variability due to the extreme wind influence. No significant trend was found for the last 50 years; during the first half of the 20th century, accumulation decreased. The high spatial and interannual variability, however, means that trends must be interpreted with care. In spite of the highly irregular accumulation distribution, stable-isotope ratios show little spatial variability. The mean annual d18O values of cores B04 and FB0198 agree fairly well for the time period 1955-82 covered by both cores. d18O values have increased during most of the 20th century; since the late 1980s a decrease is observed. This change is not related to air temperature, since mean annual air temperatures at Neumayer show no significant trend over the last two decades.