48 resultados para Random Coefficient Autoregressive Model{ RCAR (1)}
Resumo:
Clay mineral assemblages at ODP Site 1146 in the northern South China Sea are used to investigate sediment source and transport processes and to evaluate the evolution of the East Asian monsoon over the past 2 Myr. Clay minerals consist mainly of illite (22-43%) and smectite (12-48%), with associated chlorite (10-30%), kaolinite (2-18%), and random mixed-layer clays (5-22%). Hydrodynamic and mineralogical studies indicate that illite and chlorite sources include Taiwan and the Yangtze River, that smectite and mixed-layer clays originate predominantly from Luzon and Indonesia, and that kaolinite is primarily derived from the Pearl River. Mineral assemblages indicate strong glacial-interglacial cyclicity, with high illite, chlorite, and kaolinite content during glacials and high smectite and mixed-layer clay content during interglacials. During interglacials, summer enhanced monsoon (southwesterly) currents transport more smectite and mixed-layer clays to Site 1146 whereas during glacials, enhanced winter monsoon (northerly) currents transport more illite and chlorite from Taiwan and the Yangtze River. The ratio (smectite+mixed layers)/(illite+chlorite) was adopted as a proxy for East Asian monsoon variability. Higher ratios indicate strengthened summer-monsoon winds and weakened winter-monsoon winds during interglacials. In contrast, lower ratios indicate a strongly intensified winter monsoon and weakened summer monsoon during glacials. Spectral analysis indicates the mineral ratio was dominantly forced by monsoon variability prior to the development of large-scale glaciation at 1.2 Myr and by both monsoon variability and the effects of changing sea level in the interval 1.2 Myr to present.
Resumo:
The attenuation property of a lateral propagating light (LPL) in sea ice was measured using an artificial lamp in the Canadian Arctic during the 2007/2008 winter. A measurement method is proposed and applied whereby a recording instrument is buried in the sea ice and an artificial lamp is moved across the instrument. The apparent attenuation coefficient µ(lamda) for the lateral propagating light is obtained from the measured logarithmic relative variation rate. With the exception of blue and red lights, the attenuation coefficient changed little with wavelength, but changed considerably with depth. The vertical decrease of the attenuation coefficient was found to be correlated with salinity: the greater the salinity, the greater the attenuation coefficient. A clear linear relation of salinity and the lateral attenuation coefficient with R2 = 0.939 exists to address the close correlation of the attenuation of LPL with the scattering from the brine. The observed attenuation coefficient of LPL is much larger than that of the vertical propagation light, which we speculate to be caused by scattering. Part of this scattered component is transmitted out of the sea ice from the upper and lower surfaces.
Resumo:
The silicoflagellate and ebridian assemblages in early middle Eocene Arctic cores obtained by IODP Expedition 302 (ACEX) were studied in order to decipher the paleoceanography of the upper water column. The assemblages in Lithologic Unit 2 (49.7-45.1 Ma), one of the biosiliceous intervals, were usually endemic as compared to the assemblages that occurred outside of the Arctic Ocean. The presence of these endemic assemblages is probably due to a unique environmental setting, controlled by the degree of mixing between the low-salinity Arctic waters and relatively high salinity waters supplied from outside the Arctic Ocean, such as the Atlantic and possibly the Western Siberian Sea. Using the basin-to-basin fractionation model, the early middle Eocene Arctic Ocean corresponds to an estuarine circulation type, which includes the modern-day Black Sea. The abundant down-core occurrence of ebridians strongly suggests the past presence of low-salinity waters, and may indicate that low oxygen concentrations prevailed in the euphotic layer, on the basis of the ecology of the modern ebridian Hermesinum adriaticum.
Resumo:
Palynological records from the Congo fan reveal environmental change in equatorial Africa occurring 1.05 Ma ago, 100 k.y. before the mid-Pleistocene climatic shift at 0.9 Ma. Prior to 1.05 Ma, a glacial-interglacial rhythm is not obvious in the African vegetation variation. Afterwards, Podocarpus spread in the mountains of central Africa mainly during glacials and Congo River discharge decreased. The sequence of vegetation variation associated with the mid-Pleistocene glacials and interglacials differed from that observed during the late Pleistocene. Between 0.9 and 0.6 Ma, interglacials were characterized by warm dry conditions and glacials were characterized by cool humid conditions, while during the past 0.2 Ma glacials were cold and dry and interglacials warm and humid. Our data indicate that before the Northern Hemisphere ice caps dramatically increased in size (0.9-0.6 Ma), low-latitude climate forcing and response in the tropics played an important role in the initiation of 100 k.y. ice-age cycles. During the mid to late Pleistocene, however, the climate conditions in the tropics were increasingly influenced by the glacial-interglacial variations of continental ice sheets.
Resumo:
The South Georgia region supports a large biomass of krill that is subject to high interannual variability. The apparent lack of a locally self-maintaining krill population at South Georgia means that understanding the mechanism underlying these observed population characteristics is essential to successful ecosystem-based management of krill fishery in the region. Krill acoustic-density data from surveys conducted in the early, middle and late period of the summers of 2001 to 2005, together with krill population size structure over the same period from predator diet data, were used with a krill population dynamics model to evaluate potential mechanisms behind the observed changes in krill biomass. Krill abundance was highest during the middle of the summer in 3 years and in the late period in 2 years; in the latter there was evidence that krill recruitment was delayed by several months. A model scenario that included empirically derived estimates of both the magnitude and timing of recruitment in each year showed the greatest correlation with the acoustic series. The results are consistent with a krill population with allochthonous recruitment entering a retained adult population; i.e. oceanic transport of adult krill does not appear to be the major factor determining the dynamics of the adult population. The results highlight the importance of the timing of recruitment, especially where this could introduce a mismatch between the peak of krill abundance and the peak demand from predators, which may exacerbate the effects of changes in krill populations arising from commercial harvesting and/or climate change.
Resumo:
Weather and climate models struggle to represent lower tropospheric temperature and moisture profiles and surface fluxes in Arctic winter, not least because they lack or misrepresent physical processes that are specific to high latitudes. The Arctic boundary layer in winter has been observed to be in either a radiatively clear or cloudy state: The radiatively clear state is characterized by strong surface radiative cooling leading to the build-up of surface-based temperature inversions, whereas the cloudy state occurs when cloud liquid water is present in the atmospheric column, allowing little or no surface radiative cooling and leading to weaker and typically elevated temperature inversions. Many large-scale models have been shown to lack the cloudy state, and some do substantially underestimate stability in the clear state. We here present results from the first Lagrangian ARCtic air FORMation experiment (Larcform 1), a GASS (Global atmospheric system studies) single-column model intercomparison which reproduces these biases of large-scale models in an idealised setup.