Simulated temperature changes as a result of Antarctic ice sheet growth and CO2 reduction

During the Middle Miocene climate transition about 14 million years ago, the Antarctic ice sheet expanded to near-modern volume. Surprisingly, this ice sheet growth was accompanied by a warming in the surface waters of the Southern Ocean, whereas a slight deep-water temperature increase was delayed by more than 200 thousand years. Here we use a coupled atmosphere-ocean model to assess the relative effects of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and ice sheet growth on regional and global temperatures. In the simulations, changes in the wind field associated with the growth of the ice sheet induce changes in ocean circulation, deep-water formation and sea-ice cover that result in sea surface warming and deep-water cooling in large swaths of the Atlantic and Indian ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean. We interpret these changes as the dominant ocean surface response to a 100-thousand-year phase of massive ice growth in Antarctica. A rise in global annual mean temperatures is also seen in response to increased Antarctic ice surface elevation. In contrast, the longer-term surface and deep-water temperature trends are dominated by changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration. We therefore conclude that the climatic and oceanographic impacts of the Miocene expansion of the Antarctic ice sheet are governed by a complex interplay between wind field, ocean circulation and the sea-ice system.

Holocene sediment transport from the glaciated margin of East/Northeast Greenland to the N Iceland shelves

We examine variations in the ice-rafted sources for sediments in the Iceland/East Greenland offshore marine archives by utilizing a sediment unmixing model and link the results to a coupled iceberg-ocean model. Surface samples from around Iceland and along the E/NE Greenland shelf are used to define potential sediment sources, and these are examined within the context of the down-core variations in mineralogy in the <2 mm sediment fraction from a transect of cores across Denmark Strait. A sediment unmixing model is used to estimate the fraction of sediment <2 mm off NW and N Iceland exported across Denmark Strait; this averaged between 10 and 20%. Both the sediment unmixing model and the coupled iceberg-ocean model are consistent in finding that the fraction of "far-travelled" sediments in the Denmark Strait environs is overwhelmingly of local, mid-East Greenland, provenance, and therefore with a significant cross-channel component to their travel. The Holocene record of ice-rafted sediments denotes a three-part division of the Holocene in terms of iceberg sediment transport with a notable increase in the process starting ca 4000 cal yr BP. This latter increase may represent the re-advance during the Neoglacial period of land-terminating glaciers on the Geikie Plateau to become marine-terminating. The contrast in spectral signals between these cores and the 1500-yr cycle at VM28-14, just south of the Denmark Strait, combined with the coupled iceberg-model results, leads us to speculate that the signal at VM28-14 reflects pulses in overflow waters, rather than an ice-rafted signal.

Benthic foraminifera across the Cretaceous/Paleogene boundary in ODP Hole 198-1210A

Deep-sea benthic foraminifera show important but transient assemblage changes at the Cretaceous/Paleogene (K/Pg) boundary, when many biota suffered severe extinction. We quantitatively analyzed benthic foraminiferal assemblages from lower bathyal-upper abyssal (1500-2000 m) northwest Pacific ODP Site 1210 (Shatsky Rise) and compared the results with published data on assemblages at lower bathyal (~ 1500 m) Pacific DSDP Site 465 (Hess Rise) to gain insight in paleoecological and paleoenvironmental changes at that time. At both sites, diversity and heterogeneity rapidly decreased across the K/Pg boundary, then recovered. Species assemblages at both sites show a similar pattern of turnover from the uppermost Maastrichtian into the lowermost Danian: 1) The relative abundance of buliminids (indicative of a generally high food supply) increases towards the uppermost Cretaceous, and peaks rapidly just above the K/Pg boundary, coeval with a peak in benthic foraminiferal accumulation rate (BFAR), a proxy for food supply. 2) A peak in relative abundance of Stensioeina beccariiformis, a cosmopolitan form generally more common at the middle than at the lower bathyal sites, occurs just above the buliminid peak. 3) The relative abundance of Nuttallides truempyi, a more oligotrophic form, decreases at the boundary, then increases above the peak in Stensioeina beccariiformis. The food supply to the deep sea in the Pacific Ocean thus apparently increased rather than decreased in the earliest Danian. The low benthic diversity during a time of high food supply indicates a stressed environment. This stress might have been caused by reorganization of the planktic ecosystem: primary producer niches vacated by the mass extinction of calcifying nannoplankton may have been rapidly (<10 kyr) filled by other, possibly opportunistic, primary producers, leading to delivery of another type of food, and/or irregular food delivery through a succession of opportunistic blooms. The deep-sea benthic foraminiferal data thus are in strong disagreement with the widely accepted hypothesis that the global deep-sea floor became severely food-depleted following the K/Pg extinction due to the mass extinction of primary producers ("Strangelove Ocean Model") or to the collapse of the biotic pump ("Living Ocean Model").

Physical oceanography during three Maria S. Merian cruises (MSM21/2, MSM27, MSM28)

Flemish Pass, located at the western subpolar margin, is a passage (sill depth 1200 m) that is constrained by the Grand Banks and the underwater plateau Flemish Cap. In addition to the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC) pathway offshore of Flemish Cap, Flemish Pass represents another southward transport pathway for two modes of Labrador Sea Water (LSW), the lightest component of North Atlantic Deep Water carried with the DWBC. This pathway avoids potential stirring regions east of Flemish Cap and deflection into the interior North Atlantic. Ship-based velocity measurements between 2009 and 2013 at 47°N in Flemish Pass and in the DWBC east of Flemish Cap revealed a considerable southward transport of Upper LSW through Flemish Pass (15-27%, -1.0 to -1.5 Sv). About 98% of the denser Deep LSW were carried around Flemish Cap as Flemish Pass is too shallow for considerable transport of Deep LSW. Hydrographic time series from ship-based measurements show a significant warming of 0.3°C/decade and a salinification of 0.03/decade of the Upper LSW in Flemish Pass between 1993 and 2013. Almost identical trends were found for the evolution in the Labrador Sea and in the DWBC east of Flemish Cap. This indicates that the long-term hydrographic variability of Upper LSW in Flemish Pass as well as in the DWBC at 47°N is dominated by changes in the Labrador Sea, which are advected southward. Fifty years of numerical ocean model simulations in Flemish Pass suggest that these trends are part of a multidecadal cycle.

Stable carbon isotope ratios and accumulation rates of organic carbon and nutrients of DSDP Hole 79-545 (Appendix A)

Future warming is predicted to shift the Earth system into a mode with progressive increase and vigour of extreme climate events possibly stimulating other mechanisms that invigorate global warming. This study provides new data and modelling investigating climatic consequences and biogeochemical feedbacks that happened in a warmer world ~112 Myr ago. Our study focuses on the Cretaceous Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE) 1b and explores how the Earth system responded to a moderate ~25,000 yr lasting climate perturbation that is modelled to be less than 1 °C in global average temperature. Using a new chronological model for OAE 1b we present high-resolution elemental and bulk carbon isotope records from DSDP Site 545 from Mazagan Plateau off NW Africa and combine this information with a coupled atmosphere-land-ocean model. The simulations suggest that a perturbation at the onset of OAE 1b caused almost instantaneous warming of the atmosphere on the order of 0.3 °C followed by a longer (~45,000 yr) period of ~0.8 °C cooling. The marine records from DSDP Site 545 support that these moderate swings in global climate had immediate consequences for African continental supply of mineral matter and nutrients (phosphorous), subsequent oxygen availability, and organic carbon burial in the eastern subtropical Atlantic, however, without turning the ocean anoxic. The match between modelling results and stratigraphic isotopic data support previous studies [summarized in Jenkyns 2003, doi:10.1098/rsta.2003.1240] in that methane emission from marine hydrates, albeit moderate in dimension, may have been the trigger for OAE 1b, though we can not finally rule out alternative mechanisms. Following the hydrate mechanism a total of 1.15 * 10**18 g methane carbon (delta13C=-60 ?), equivalent to about 10% to the total modern gas hydrate inventory, generated the delta13Ccarb profile recorded in the section. Modelling suggests a combination of moderate-scale methane pulses supplemented by continuous methane emission at elevated levels over ~25,000 yr. The proposed mechanism, though difficult to finally confirm in the geological past, is arguably more likely to occur in a warmer world and apparently perturbs global climate and ocean chemistry almost instantaneously. This study shows that, once set-off, this mechanism can maintain Earth's climate in a perturbed mode over geological time leading to pronounced changes in regional climate.

Model results of ocean physical field of the reference state and the targets in NetCDF format

In a feasibility study, the potential of proxy data for the temperature and salinity during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, about 19 000 to 23 000 years before present) in constraining the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) with a general ocean circulation model was explored. The proxy data were simulated by drawing data from four different model simulations at the ocean sediment core locations of the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean surface (MARGO) project, and perturbing these data with realistic noise estimates. The results suggest that our method has the potential to provide estimates of the past strength of the AMOC even from sparse data, but in general, paleo-sea-surface temperature data without additional prior knowledge about the ocean state during the LGM is not adequate to constrain the model. On the one hand, additional data in the deep-ocean and salinity data are shown to be highly important in estimating the LGM circulation. On the other hand, increasing the amount of surface data alone does not appear to be enough for better estimates. Finally, better initial guesses to start the state estimation procedure would greatly improve the performance of the method. Indeed, with a sufficiently good first guess, just the sea-surface temperature data from the MARGO project promise to be sufficient for reliable estimates of the strength of the AMOC.

EOT11a - Global Empirical Ocean Tide model from multi-mission satellite altimetry, with links to model results

EOT11a is a global (E)mpirical (O)cean (T)ide model derived in 2011 by residual analysis of multi-mission satellite (a)ltimeter data. EOT11a includes amplitudes and phases of the main astronomical tides M2, S2, N2, K2, 2N2, O1, K1, P2, and Q1, the non-linear constituent M4, the long period tides Mm and Mf, and the radiational tide S1. Ocean tides as well as loading tides are provided. EOT11a was computed by means of residual tidal analysis of multi-mission altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, ERS-2, ENVISAT, and Jason-1/2, as far as acquired between September 1992 and April 2010. The resolution of 7.5'x7.5' is identical with FES2004 which was used as reference model for the residual tide analysis. The development of EOT11a was funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) under grant BO1228/6-2.

Ocean temperature response to idealized Gleissberg and de Vries solar cycles in a comprehensive climate model

The ~90-year Gleissberg and ~200-year de Vries cycles have been identified as two distinctive quasi-periodic components of Holocene solar activity. Evidence exists for the impact of such multi-decadal to centennial-scale variability in total solar irradiance (TSI) on climate, but concerning the ocean, this evidence is mainly restricted to the surface response. Here we use a comprehensive global climate model to study the impact of idealized solar forcing, representing the Gleissberg and de Vries cycles, on global ocean potential temperature at different depth levels, after a recent proxy record indicates a signal of TSI anomalies in the northeastern Atlantic at mid-depth. Potential impacts of TSI anomalies on deeper oceanic levels are climatically relevant due to their possible effect on ocean circulation by altering water mass characteristics. Simulated solar anomalies are shown to penetrate the ocean down to at least deep-water levels. Despite the fact that the two forcing periods differ only by a factor of ~2, the spatial pattern of response is significantly distinctive between the experiments, suggesting different mechanisms for solar signal propagation. These are related to advection by North Atlantic Deep Water flow (200-year forcing), and barotropic adjustment in the South Atlantic in response to a latitudinal shift of the westerly wind belt (90-year forcing).

Altered neurotransmitter function in CO2-exposed stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus): a temperate model species for ocean acidification research

Studies on the consequences of ocean acidification for the marine ecosystem have revealed behavioural changes in coral reef fishes exposed to sustained near-future CO2 levels. The changes have been linked to altered function of GABAergic neurotransmitter systems, because the behavioural alterations can be reversed rapidly by treatment with the GABAA receptor antagonist gabazine. Characterization of the molecular mechanisms involved would be greatly aided if these can be examined in a well-characterized model organism with a sequenced genome. It was recently shown that CO2-induced behavioural alterations are not confined to tropical species, but also affect the three-spined stickleback, although an involvement of the GABAA receptor was not examined. Here, we show that loss of lateralization in the stickleback can be restored rapidly and completely by gabazine treatment. This points towards a worrying universality of disturbed GABAA function after high-CO2 exposure in fishes from tropical to temperate marine habitats. Importantly, the stickleback is a model species with a sequenced and annotated genome, which greatly facilitates future studies on underlying molecular mechanisms.

Southern Ocean CO2 uptake and buffer factor from model run 2012-2100, with links to model results

The Southern Ocean is a key region for global carbon uptake and is characterised by a strong seasonality with the annual CO2 uptake being mediated by biological carbon draw-down in summer. Here, we show that the contribution of biology to CO2 uptake will become even more important until 2100. This is the case even if biological production remains unaltered and can be explained by the decreasing buffer capacity of the ocean as its carbon content increases. The same amount of biological carbon draw-down leads to a more than twice as large reduction in CO2 (aq) concentration and hence to a larger CO2 gradient between ocean and atmosphere that drives the gas-exchange. While the winter uptake south of 44°S changes little, the summer uptake increases largely and is responsible for the annual mean response. The combination of decreasing buffer capacity and strong seasonality of biological carbon draw-down introduces a strong and increasing seasonality in the anthropogenic carbon uptake.