73 resultados para Model calibration
Resumo:
The timing and magnitude of sea-surface temperature (SST) changes in the tropical southern South China Sea (SCS) during the last 16,500 years have been reconstructed on a high-resolution, 14C-dated sediment core using three different foraminiferal transfer functions (SIMMAX28, RAM, FP-12E) and geochemical (Uk'37) SST estimates. In agreement with CLIMAP reconstructions, both the FP-12E and the Uk'37 SST estimates show an average late glacial-interglacial SST difference of 2.0°C, whereas the RAM and SIMMAX28 foraminiferal transfer functions show only a minor (0.6°C) or no consistent late glacial-interglacial SST change, respectively. Both the Uk'37 and the FP-12E SST estimates, as well as the planktonic foraminiferal delta18O values, indicate an abrupt warming (ca. 1°C in <200 yr) at the end of the last glaciation, synchronous (within dating uncertainties) with the Bølling transition as recorded in the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) ice core, whereas the RAM-derived deglacial SST increase appears to lag during this event by ca. 500 yr. The similarity in abruptness and timing of the warming associated with the Bølling transition in Greenland and the southern SCS suggest a true synchrony of the Northern Hemisphere warming at the end of the last glaciation. In contrast to the foraminiferal transfer function estimates that do not indicate any consistent cooling associated with the Younger Dryas (YD) climate event in the tropical SCS, the Uk'37 SST estimates show a cooling of ca. 0.2-0.6°C compared to the Bølling-Allerød period. These Uk'37 SST estimates from the southern SCS argue in favor of a Northern Hemisphere-wide, synchronous cooling during the YD period.
Resumo:
Soil degradation threatens agricultural production and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa. In the coming decades, soil degradation, in particular soil erosion, will become worse through the expansion of agriculture into savannah and forest and changes in climate. This study aims to improve the understanding of how land use and climate change affect the hydrological cycle and soil erosion rates at the catchment scale. We used the semi-distributed, time-continuous erosion model SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) to quantify runoff processes and sheet and rill erosion in the Upper Ouémé River catchment (14500 km**2, Central Benin) for the period 1998-2005. We could then evaluate a range of land use and climate change scenarios with the SWAT model for the period 2001-2050 using spatial data from the land use model CLUE-S and the regional climate model REMO. Field investigations were performed to parameterise a soil map, to measure suspended sediment concentrations for model calibration and validation and to characterise erosion forms, degraded agricultural fields and soil conservation practices. Modelling results reveal current "hotspots" of soil erosion in the north-western, eastern and north-eastern parts of the Upper Ouémé catchment. As a consequence of rapid expansion of agricultural areas triggered by high population growth (partially caused by migration) and resulting increases in surface runoff and topsoil erosion, the mean sediment yield in the Upper Ouémé River outlet is expected to increase by 42 to 95% by 2025, depending on the land use scenario. In contrast, changes in climate variables led to decreases in sediment yield of 5 to 14% in 2001-2025 and 17 to 24% in 2026-2050. Combined scenarios showed the dominance of land use change leading to changes in mean sediment yield of -2 to +31% in 2001-2025. Scenario results vary considerably within the catchment. Current "hotspots" of soil erosion will aggravate, and a new "hotspot" will appear in the southern part of the catchment. Although only small parts of the Upper Ouémé catchment belong to the most degraded zones in the country, sustainable soil and plant management practices should be promoted in the entire catchment. The results of this study can support planning of soil conservation activities in Benin.
Resumo:
High-resolution records of glacial-interglacial variations in biogenic carbonate, opal, and detritus (derived from non-destructive core log measurements of density, P-wave velocity and color; r >= 0.9) from 15 sediment sites in the eastern equatorial (sampling resolution is ~1 kyr) clear response to eccentricity and precession forcing. For the Peru Basin, we generate a high-resolution (21 kyr increment) orbitally-based chronology for the last 1.3 Ma. Spectral analysis indicates that the 100 kyr cycle became dominant at roughly 1.2 Ma, 200-300 kyr earlier than reported for other paleoclimatic records. The response to orbital forcing is weaker since the Mid-Brunhes Dissolution Event (at 400 ka). A west-east reconstruction of biogenic sedimentation in the Peru Basin (four cores; 91-85°W) distinguishes equatorial and coastal upwelling systems in the western and eastern sites, respectively. A north-south reconstruction perpendicular to the equatorial upwelling system (11 cores, 11°N-°3S) shows high carbonate contents (>= 50%) between 6°N and 4°S and highly variable opal contents between 2°N and 4°S. Carbonate cycles B-6, B-8, B-10, B-12, B-14, M-2, and M-6 are well developed with B-10 (430 ka) as the most prominent cycle. Carbonate highs during glacials and glacial-interglacial transitions extended up to 400 km north and south compared to interglacial or interglacial^glacial carbonate lows. Our reconstruction thus favors glacial-interglacial expansion and contraction of the equatorial upwelling system rather than shifting north or south. Elevated accumulation rates are documented near the equator from 6°N to 4°S and from 2°N to 4°S for carbonate and opal, respectively. Accumulation rates are higher during glacials and glacial-interglacial transitions in all cores, whereas increased dissolution is concentrated on Peru Basin sediments close to the carbonate compensation depth and occurred during interglacials or interglacial-glacial transitions.