95 resultados para Mean squared error


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Secchi depth is a measure of water transparency. In the Baltic Sea region, Secchi depth maps are used to assess eutrophication and as input for habitat models. Due to their spatial and temporal coverage, satellite data would be the most suitable data source for such maps. But the Baltic Sea's optical properties are so different from the open ocean that globally calibrated standard models suffer from large errors. Regional predictive models that take the Baltic Sea's special optical properties into account are thus needed. This paper tests how accurately generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs) with MODIS/Aqua and auxiliary data as inputs can predict Secchi depth at a regional scale. It uses cross-validation to test the prediction accuracy of hundreds of GAMs and GLMs with up to 5 input variables. A GAM with 3 input variables (chlorophyll a, remote sensing reflectance at 678 nm, and long-term mean salinity) made the most accurate predictions. Tested against field observations not used for model selection and calibration, the best model's mean absolute error (MAE) for daily predictions was 1.07 m (22%), more than 50% lower than for other publicly available Baltic Sea Secchi depth maps. The MAE for predicting monthly averages was 0.86 m (15%). Thus, the proposed model selection process was able to find a regional model with good prediction accuracy. It could be useful to find predictive models for environmental variables other than Secchi depth, using data from other satellite sensors, and for other regions where non-standard remote sensing models are needed for prediction and mapping. Annual and monthly mean Secchi depth maps for 2003-2012 come with this paper as Supplementary materials.

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The hydrogen isotopic composition of plant leaf-wax n-alkanes (dDwax) is a novel proxy for estimating dD of past precipitation (dDp). However, vegetation life-form and relative humidity exert secondary effects on dDwax, preventing quantitative estimates of past dDp. Here, we present an approach for removing the effect of vegetation-type and relative humidity from dDwax and thus for directly estimating past dDp. We test this approach on modern day (late Holocene; 0-3 ka) sediments from a transect of 9 marine cores spanning 21°N-23°S off the western coast of Africa. We estimate vegetation type (C3 tree versus C4 grass) using d13C of leaf-wax n-alkanes and correct dDwax for vegetation-type with previously-derived apparent fractionation factors for each vegetation type. Late Holocene vegetation-corrected dDwax (dDvc) displays a good fit with modern-day dDp, suggesting that the effects of vegetation type and relative humidity have both been removed and thus that dDvc is a good estimate of dDp. We find that the magnitude of the effect of C3 tree - C4 grass changes on dDwax is small compared to dDp changes. We go on to estimate dDvc for the mid-Holocene (6-8 ka), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 19-23 ka) and Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1; 16-18.5 ka). In terms of past hydrological changes, our leaf-wax based estimates of dDp mostly reflect changes in wet season intensity, which is complementary to estimates of wet season length based on leaf-wax d13C.

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Ice shelves strongly impact coastal Antarctic sea-ice and the associated ecosystem through the formation of a sub-sea-ice platelet layer. Although progress has been made in determining and understanding its spatio-temporal variability based on point measurements, an investigation of this phenomenon on a larger scale remains a challenge due to logistical constraints and a lack of suitable methodology. In this study, we applied a laterally-constrained Marquardt-Levenberg inversion to a unique multi-frequency electromagnetic (EM) induction sounding dataset obtained on the landfast sea ice of Atka Bay, eastern Weddell Sea, in 2012. In addition to consistent fast-ice thickness and -conductivities along > 100 km transects; we present the first comprehensive, high resolution platelet-layer thickness and -conductivity dataset recorded on Antarctic sea ice. The reliability of the algorithm was confirmed by using synthetic data, and the inverted platelet-layer thicknesses agreed within the data uncertainty to drill-hole measurements. Ice-volume fractions were calculated from platelet-layer conductivities, revealing that an older and thicker platelet layer is denser and more compacted than a loosely attached, young platelet layer. The overall platelet-layer volume below Atka Bay fast ice suggests that the contribution of ocean/ice-shelf interaction to sea-ice volume in this region is even higher than previously thought. This study also implies that multi-frequency EM induction sounding is an effective approach in determining platelet layer volume on a larger scale than previously feasible. When applied to airborne multi-frequency EM, this method could provide a step towards an Antarctic-wide quantification of ocean/ice-shelf interaction.