Ensemble prediction distribution maps of macroalgae for current conditions and four climate change scenarios and high resultion bathymetry for Potter Cove, WAP, Antarctica

Species distribution models (SDM) predict species occurrence based on statistical relationships with environmental conditions. The R-package biomod2 which includes 10 different SDM techniques and 10 different evaluation methods was used in this study. Macroalgae are the main biomass producers in Potter Cove, King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), Antarctica, and they are sensitive to climate change factors such as suspended particulate matter (SPM). Macroalgae presence and absence data were used to test SDMs suitability and, simultaneously, to assess the environmental response of macroalgae as well as to model four scenarios of distribution shifts by varying SPM conditions due to climate change. According to the averaged evaluation scores of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and True scale statistics (TSS) by models, those methods based on a multitude of decision trees such as Random Forest and Classification Tree Analysis, reached the highest predictive power followed by generalized boosted models (GBM) and maximum-entropy approaches (Maxent). The final ensemble model used 135 of 200 calculated models (TSS > 0.7) and identified hard substrate and SPM as the most influencing parameters followed by distance to glacier, total organic carbon (TOC), bathymetry and slope. The climate change scenarios show an invasive reaction of the macroalgae in case of less SPM and a retreat of the macroalgae in case of higher assumed SPM values.

Interpolated maps of pollen percentages in Europe over the last 15,000 years

Aim Palaeoecological reconstructions document past vegetation change with estimates of rapid rates of changing species distribution limits that are often not matched by model simulations of climate-driven vegetation dynamics. Genetic surveys of extant plant populations have yielded new insight into continental vegetation histories, challenging traditional interpretations that had been based on pollen data. Our aim is to examine an updated continental pollen data set from Europe in the light of the new ideas about vegetation dynamics emerging from genetic research and vegetation modelling studies. Location Europe Methods: We use pollen data from the European Pollen Database (EPD) to construct interpolated maps of pollen percentages documenting change in distribution and abundance of major plant genera and the grass family in Europe over the last 15,000 years. Results: Our analyses confirm high rates of postglacial spread with at least 1000 metres per year for Corylus, Ulmus and Alnus and average rates of 400 metres per year for Tilia, Quercus, Fagus and Carpinus. The late Holocene expansions of Picea and Fagus populations in many European regions cannot be explained by migrational lag. Both taxa shift their population centres towards the Atlantic coast suggesting that climate may have played a role in the timing of their expansions. The slowest rates of spread were reconstructed for Abies. Main conclusions: The calculated rates of postglacial plant spread are higher in Europe than those from North America, which may be due to more rapid shifts in climate mediated by the Gulf Stream and westerly winds. Late Holocene anthropogenic land use practices in Europe had major effects on individual taxa, which in combination with climate change contributed to shifts in areas of abundance and dominance. The high rates of spread calculated from the European pollen data are consistent with the common tree species rapidly tracking early Holocene climate change and contribute to the debate on the consequences of global warming for plant distributions.

Probability sampling protocol of classification maps from spaceborne/airborne image

To deliver sample estimates provided with the necessary probability foundation to permit generalization from the sample data subset to the whole target population being sampled, probability sampling strategies are required to satisfy three necessary not sufficient conditions: (i) All inclusion probabilities be greater than zero in the target population to be sampled. If some sampling units have an inclusion probability of zero, then a map accuracy assessment does not represent the entire target region depicted in the map to be assessed. (ii) The inclusion probabilities must be: (a) knowable for nonsampled units and (b) known for those units selected in the sample: since the inclusion probability determines the weight attached to each sampling unit in the accuracy estimation formulas, if the inclusion probabilities are unknown, so are the estimation weights. This original work presents a novel (to the best of these authors' knowledge, the first) probability sampling protocol for quality assessment and comparison of thematic maps generated from spaceborne/airborne Very High Resolution (VHR) images, where: (I) an original Categorical Variable Pair Similarity Index (CVPSI, proposed in two different formulations) is estimated as a fuzzy degree of match between a reference and a test semantic vocabulary, which may not coincide, and (II) both symbolic pixel-based thematic quality indicators (TQIs) and sub-symbolic object-based spatial quality indicators (SQIs) are estimated with a degree of uncertainty in measurement in compliance with the well-known Quality Assurance Framework for Earth Observation (QA4EO) guidelines. Like a decision-tree, any protocol (guidelines for best practice) comprises a set of rules, equivalent to structural knowledge, and an order of presentation of the rule set, known as procedural knowledge. The combination of these two levels of knowledge makes an original protocol worth more than the sum of its parts. The several degrees of novelty of the proposed probability sampling protocol are highlighted in this paper, at the levels of understanding of both structural and procedural knowledge, in comparison with related multi-disciplinary works selected from the existing literature. In the experimental session the proposed protocol is tested for accuracy validation of preliminary classification maps automatically generated by the Satellite Image Automatic MapperT (SIAMT) software product from two WorldView-2 images and one QuickBird-2 image provided by DigitalGlobe for testing purposes. In these experiments, collected TQIs and SQIs are statistically valid, statistically significant, consistent across maps and in agreement with theoretical expectations, visual (qualitative) evidence and quantitative quality indexes of operativeness (OQIs) claimed for SIAMT by related papers. As a subsidiary conclusion, the statistically consistent and statistically significant accuracy validation of the SIAMT pre-classification maps proposed in this contribution, together with OQIs claimed for SIAMT by related works, make the operational (automatic, accurate, near real-time, robust, scalable) SIAMT software product eligible for opening up new inter-disciplinary research and market opportunities in accordance with the visionary goal of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) initiative and the QA4EO international guidelines.

Tertiary flora of Saxony

The thesis represents the first part of a reference book to the Tertiary flora of Saxony. All taxa based on leaves of angiosperms and on Ginkgo are included in this compendium. After an overview about the geological state of knowledge on the Tertiary in Saxony, phytostratigraphic concepts are introduced and a historical survey on the Tertiary paleobotanical research in Saxony is given. All plant macrofossils published from Saxonian Tertiary until end of 2013 and their sites of discovery (primary data) were recorded. This data were supplemented by additional attributes and unified through project-based M.Sc. theses. Subsequently, taxa of fossil leaves were selected, their data evaluated and brought to a consistent state of research. Data sheets for 187 out of 235 examined taxa were established for a determination atlas. Macro- and micromorphological attributes are described in this atlas and information are given about the systematic, synonymy, palaeoecology and spatial and temporal distribution. The describing part is illustrated by images and instructive drawings. The documented data were surveyed and discussed related to their quality within the literature in the result part. A bibliography of the extensive palaeobotanical literature for plant fossils of Saxony completes the work. The taxon and locality related data are implemented into an open source geographical information system (GIS) in order to visualize and to manage them effectively. For the first time, the results of this thesis implemented in the GIS allow the generation of distribution maps for the taxa of leaves of Tertiary angiospermes and Ginkgo in Saxony. Furthermore it enables to query topographical, geological and paleobotanical information about the fossil sites. A determination key was developed for the fossil material that allows a rough determination of the findings in the field. The compendium will be available for free use in a printed as well as in a digital version.

Hydrochemical Atlas of the Arctic Ocean

Introduction: Chemical composition of water determines its physical properties and character of processes proceeding in it: freezing temperature, volume of evaporation, density, color, transparency, filtration capacity, etc. Presence of chemical elements in water solution confers waters special physical properties exerting significant influence on their circulation, creates necessary conditions for development and inhabitance of flora and fauna, and imparts to the ocean waters some chemical features that radically differ them from the land waters (Alekin & Liakhin, 1984). Hydrochemical information helps to determine elements of water circulation, convection depth, makes it easier to distinguish water masses and gives additional knowledge of climatic variability of ocean conditions. Hydrochemical information is a necessary part of biological research. Water chemical composition can be the governing characteristics determining possibility and limits of use of marine objects, both stationary and moving in sea water. Subject of investigation of hydrochemistry is study of dynamics of chemical composition, i.e. processes of its formation and hydrochemical conditions of water bodies (Alekin & Liakhin 1984). The hydrochemical processes in the Arctic Ocean are the least known. Some information on these processes can be obtained in odd publications. A generalizing study of hydrochemical conditions in the Arctic Ocean based on expeditions conducted in the years 1948-1975 has been carried out by Rusanov et al. (1979). The "Atlas of the World Ocean: the Arctic Ocean" contains a special section "Hydrochemistry" (Gorshkov, 1980). Typical vertical profiles, transects and maps for different depths - 0, 100, 300, 500, 1000, 2000, 3000 m are given in this section for the following parameters: dissolved oxygen, phosphate, silicate, pH and alkaline-chlorine coefficient. The maps were constructed using the data of expeditions conducted in the years 1948-1975. The illustrations reflect main features of distribution of the hydrochemical elements for multi-year period and represent a static image of hydrochemical conditions. Distribution of the hydrochemical elements on the ocean surface is given for two seasons - winter and summer, for the other depths are given mean annual fields. Aim of the present Atlas is description of hydrochemical conditions in the Arctic Ocean on the basis of a greater body of hydrochemical information for the years 1948-2000 and using the up-to-date methods of analysis and electronic forms of presentation of hydrochemical information. The most wide-spread characteristics determined in water samples were used as hydrochemical indices. They are: dissolved oxygen, phosphate, silicate, pH, total alkalinity, nitrite and nitrate. An important characteristics of water salt composition - "salinity" has been considered in the Oceanographic Atlas of the Arctic Ocean (1997, 1998). Presentation of the hydrochemical characteristics in this Hydrochemical Atlas is wider if compared with that of the former Atlas (Gorshkov, 1980). Maps of climatic distribution of the hydrochemical elements were constructed for all the standard depths, and seasonal variability of the hydrochemical parameters is given not only for the surface, but also for the underlying standard depths up to 400 m and including. Statistical characteristics of the hydrochemical elements are given for the first time. Detailed accuracy estimates of initial data and map construction are also given in the Atlas. Calculated values of mean-root deviations, maximum and minimum values of the parameters demonstrate limits of their variability for the analyzed period of observations. Therefore, not only investigations of chemical statics are summarized in the Atlas, but also some elements of chemical dynamics are demonstrated. Digital arrays of the hydrochemical elements obtained in nodes of a regular grid are the new form of characteristics presentation in the Atlas. It should be mentioned that the same grid and the same boxes were used in the Atlas, as those that had been used by creation of the US-Russian climatic Oceanographic Atlas. It allows to combine hydrochemical and oceanographic information of these Atlases. The first block of the digital arrays contains climatic characteristics calculated using direct observational data. These climatic characteristics were not calculated in the regions without observations, and the information arrays for these regions have gaps. The other block of climatic information in a gridded form was obtained with the help of objective analysis of observational data. Procedure of the objective analysis allowed us to obtain climatic estimates of the hydrochemical characteristics for the whole water area of the Arctic Ocean including the regions not covered by observations. Data of the objective analysis can be widely used, in particular, in hydrobiological investigations and in modeling of hydrochemical conditions of the Arctic Ocean. Array of initial measurements is a separate block. It includes all the available materials of hydrochemical observations in the form, as they were presented in different sources. While keeping in mind that this array contains some amount of perverted information, the authors of the Atlas assumed it necessary to store this information in its primary form. Methods of data quality control can be developed in future in the process of hydrochemical information accumulation. It can be supposed that attitude can vary in future to the data that were rejected according to the procedure accepted in the Atlas. The hydrochemical Atlas of the Arctic Ocean is the first specialized and electronic generalization of hydrochemical observations in the Arctic Ocean and finishes the program of joint efforts of Russian and US specialists in preparation of a number of atlases for the Arctic. The published Oceanographic Atlas (1997, 1998), Atlas of Arctic Meteorology and Climate (2000), Ice Atlas of the Arctic Ocean prepared for publication and Hydrochemical Atlas of the Arctic Ocean represent a united series of fundamental generalizations of empirical knowledge of Arctic Ocean nature at climatic level. The Hydrochemical Atlas of the Arctic Ocean was elaborated in the result of joint efforts of the SRC of the RF AARI and IARC. Dr. Ye. Nikiforov was scientific supervisor of the Atlas, Dr. R. Colony was manager on behalf of the USA and Dr. L. Timokhov - on behalf of Russia.

Maps (pdf) and raster images (tif) of predicted rural land cover suitability under current (2010) conditions and future climate scenarios

This study projects land cover probabilities under climate change for corn (maize), soybeans, spring and winter wheat, winter wheat-soybean double cropping, cotton, grassland and forest across 16 central U.S. states at a high spatial resolution, while also taking into account the influence of soil characteristics and topography. The scenarios span three oceanic-atmospheric global circulation models, three Representative Concentration Pathways, and three time periods (2040, 2070, 2100). As climate change intensifies, the suitable area for all six crops display large northward shifts. Total suitable area for spring wheat, followed by corn and soybeans, diminish. Suitable area for winter wheat and for winter wheat-soybean double-cropping expand northward, while cotton suitability migrates to new, more northerly, locations. Suitability for forest intensifies in the south while yielding to crops in the north; grassland intensifies in the western Great Plains as crop suitability diminishes. To maintain current broad geographic patterns of land use, large changes in the thermal response of crops such as corn would be required. A transition from corn-soybean to winter wheat-soybean doubling cropping is an alternative adaptation.

Results of wave modelling for Moreton Bay, Southeast Queensland, and a reef lagoon off Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef, Australia

The distribution, abundance, behaviour, and morphology of marine species is affected by spatial variability in the wave environment. Maps of wave metrics (e.g. significant wave height Hs, peak energy wave period Tp, and benthic wave orbital velocity URMS) are therefore useful for predictive ecological models of marine species and ecosystems. A number of techniques are available to generate maps of wave metrics, with varying levels of complexity in terms of input data requirements, operator knowledge, and computation time. Relatively simple "fetch-based" models are generated using geographic information system (GIS) layers of bathymetry and dominant wind speed and direction. More complex, but computationally expensive, "process-based" models are generated using numerical models such as the Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model. We generated maps of wave metrics based on both fetch-based and process-based models and asked whether predictive performance in models of benthic marine habitats differed. Predictive models of seagrass distribution for Moreton Bay, Southeast Queensland, and Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef, Australia, were generated using maps based on each type of wave model. For Lizard Island, performance of the process-based wave maps was significantly better for describing the presence of seagrass, based on Hs, Tp, and URMS. Conversely, for the predictive model of seagrass in Moreton Bay, based on benthic light availability and Hs, there was no difference in performance using the maps of the different wave metrics. For predictive models where wave metrics are the dominant factor determining ecological processes it is recommended that process-based models be used. Our results suggest that for models where wave metrics provide secondarily useful information, either fetch- or process-based models may be equally useful.