295 resultados para MAXIMUM PENALIZED LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATES
Resumo:
A high-resolution deuterium profile is now available along the entire European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica Dome C ice core, extending this climate record back to marine isotope stage 20.2, ~800,000 years ago. Experiments performed with an atmospheric general circulation model including water isotopes support its temperature interpretation. We assessed the general correspondence between Dansgaard-Oeschger events and their smoothed Antarctic counterparts for this Dome C record, which reveals the presence of such features with similar amplitudes during previous glacial periods. We suggest that the interplay between obliquity and precession accounts for the variable intensity of interglacial periods in ice core records. Temperature was estimated after correction for sea-water isotopic composition (Bintanja et al, 2005) and for ice sheet elevation (Parrenin et al, 2007) on EDC3 age scale (Parrenin et al, 2007).
Resumo:
Documenting changes in distribution is necessary for understanding species' response to environmental changes, but data on species distributions are heterogeneous in accuracy and resolution. Combining different data sources and methodological approaches can fill gaps in knowledge about the dynamic processes driving changes in species-rich, but data-poor regions. We combined recent bird survey data from the Neotropical Biodiversity Mapping Initiative (NeoMaps) with historical distribution records to estimate potential changes in the distribution of eight species of Amazon parrots in Venezuela. Using environmental covariates and presence-only data from museum collections and the literature, we first used maximum likelihood to fit a species distribution model (SDM) estimating a historical maximum probability of occurrence for each species. We then used recent, NeoMaps survey data to build single-season occupancy models (OM) with the same environmental covariates, as well as with time- and effort-dependent detectability, resulting in estimates of the current probability of occurrence. We finally calculated the disagreement between predictions as a matrix of probability of change in the state of occurrence. Our results suggested negative changes for the only restricted, threatened species, Amazona barbadensis, which has been independently confirmed with field studies. Two of the three remaining widespread species that were detected, Amazona amazonica, Amazona ochrocephala, also had a high probability of negative changes in northern Venezuela, but results were not conclusive for Amazona farinosa. The four remaining species were undetected in recent field surveys; three of these were most probably absent from the survey locations (Amazona autumnalis, Amazona mercenaria and Amazona festiva), while a fourth (Amazona dufresniana) requires more intensive targeted sampling to estimate its current status. Our approach is unique in taking full advantage of available, but limited data, and in detecting a high probability of change even for rare and patchily-distributed species. However, it is presently limited to species meeting the strong assumptions required for maximum-likelihood estimation with presence-only data, including very high detectability and representative sampling of its historical distribution.
Resumo:
Pollen analyses have been proven to possess the possibility to decipher rapid vegetational and climate shifts in Neogene sedimentary records. Herein, a c. 21-kyr-long transgression-regression cycle from the Lower Austrian locality Stetten is analysed in detail to evaluate climatic benchmarks for the early phase of the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum and to estimate the pace of environmental change. Based on the Coexistence Approach, a very clear signal of seasonality can be reconstructed. A warm and wet summer season with c. 204-236 mm precipitation during the wettest month was opposed by a rather dry winter season with precipitation of c. 9-24 mm during the driest month. The mean annual temperature ranged between 15.7 and 20.8 °C, with about 9.6-13.3 °C during the cold season and 24.7-27.9 °C during the warmest month. In contrast, today's climate of this area, with an annual temperature of 9.8 °C and 660 mm rainfall, is characterized by the winter season (mean temperature: -1.4 °C, mean precipitation: 39 mm) and a summer mean temperature of 19.9 °C (mean precipitation: 84 mm). Different modes of environmental shifts shaped the composition of the vegetation. Within few millennia, marshes and salt marshes with abundant Cyperaceae rapidly graded into Taxodiaceae swamps. This quick but gradual process was interrupted by swift marine ingressions which took place on a decadal to centennial scale. The transgression is accompanied by blooms of dinoflagellates and of the green alga Prasinophyta and an increase in Abies and Picea. Afterwards, the retreat of the sea and the progradation of estuarine and wetland settings were a gradual progress again. Despite a clear sedimentological cyclicity, which is related to the 21-kyr precessional forcing, the climate data show little variation. This missing pattern might be due to the buffering of the precessional-related climate signal by the subtropical vegetation. Another explanation could be the method-inherent broad range of climate-parameter estimates that could cover small scale climatic changes.
Resumo:
High-resolution records (2 7 kyr) of Upper Pliocene Discoaster abundances obtained from six ODP/DSDP sites are assessed independently using oxygen isotope stratigraphy. Four Atlantic Ocean sites (DSDP Sites 552 and 607, and ODP Sites 659 and 662) comprise a transect from 56°N to 1°S and provide a record of latitudinal variations in Diseoaster biogeography. Low-latitude sites in the Atlantic (ODP Site 662), Pacific (ODP Site 677), and Indian (ODP Site 709) oceans provide additional information about variability in Discoaster abundance patterns within the equatorial region. A common chronology, based on the astronomical time scale developed for ODP Site 677, has been established for all the sites. By integrating oxygen isotope data and Discoaster abundance records at each site we are able to independently evaluate the temporal and spatial distribution of D. brouweri and D. triradiatus in the 500 kyr prior to the extinction of the discoasters near the base of the Olduvai subchron. Major decreases in abundance are evident during some of the more intense late Pliocene glacial events. In particular, glacial isotope stages 82, 96, 98 and 100 are associated with distinct abundance minima. At these times, large-scale changes in surface hydrographic conditions appear to have suppressed Discoaster numbers on a global scale. The increase in abundance of D. triradiatus, which precedes the extinction of the discoasters by around 200 kyr, may also be related to the intensification of environmental pressures that accompanied the build-up of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the late Pliocene. In spite of contrasting geographic and oceanographic settings, the various D. brouweri and D. triradiatus records are remarkably similar. This demonstrates that the acme and extinction events are excellent biostratigraphic datums. The simultaneous extinction of D. brouweri and D. triradiatus at 1.95 Ma were synchronous events at both a regional scale within the Atlantic, and on a global scale between the three major oceans. However, the start of the D. triradiatus acme appears to have been diachronous, occurring some 40 kyr earlier in the Atlantic than in the Indo-Pacific, and hence the stratigraphic usefulness of this datum is regional rather than global.