Anthropogenic aerosol emissions and rainfall decline in South-West Australia - accompanying model results in NetCDF format

It is commonly understood that the observed decline in precipitation in South-West Australia during the 20th century is caused by anthropogenic factors. Candidates therefore are changes to large-scale atmospheric circulations due to global warming, extensive deforestation and anthropogenic aerosol emissions - all of which are effective on different spatial and temporal scales. This contribution focusses on the role of rapidly rising aerosol emissions from anthropogenic sources in South-West Australia around 1970. An analysis of historical longterm rainfall data of the Bureau of Meteorology shows that South-West Australia as a whole experienced a gradual decline in precipitation over the 20th century. However, on smaller scales and for the particular example of the Perth catchment area, a sudden drop in precipitation around 1970 is apparent. Modelling experiments at a convection-resolving resolution of 3.3km using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.6.1 with the aerosol-aware Thompson-Eidhammer microphysics scheme are conducted for the period 1970-1974. A comparison of four runs with different prescribed aerosol emissions and without aerosol effects demonstrates that tripling the pre-1960s atmospheric CCN and IN concentrations can suppress precipitation by 2-9%, depending on the area and the season. This suggests that a combination of all three processes is required to account for the gradual decline in rainfall seen for greater South-West Australia and for the sudden drop observed in areas along the West Coast in the 1970s: changing atmospheric circulations, deforestation and anthropogenic aerosol emissions.

Assessing the physiological responses of the gastropod Crepidula fornicata to predicted ocean acidification and warming

Organisms inhabiting coastal waters naturally experience diel and seasonal physico-chemical variations. According to various assumptions, coastal species are either considered to be highly tolerant to environmental changes or, conversely, living at the thresholds of their physiological performance. Therefore, these species are either more resistant or more sensitive, respectively, to ocean acidification and warming. Here, we focused on Crepidula fornicata, an invasive gastropod that colonized bays and estuaries on northwestern European coasts during the 20th century. Small (<3 cm in length) and large (>4.5 cm in length), sexually mature individuals of C. fornicata were raised for 6 months in three different pCO2 conditions (390 µatm, 750 µatm, and 1400 µatm) at four successive temperature levels (10°C, 13°C, 16°C, and 19°C). At each temperature level and in each pCO2 condition, we assessed the physiological rates of respiration, ammonia excretion, filtration and calcification on small and large individuals. Results show that, in general, temperature positively influenced respiration, excretion and filtration rates in both small and large individuals. Conversely, increasing pCO2 negatively affected calcification rates, leading to net dissolution in the most drastic pCO2 condition (1400 µatm) but did not affect the other physiological rates. Overall, our results indicate that C. fornicata can tolerate ocean acidification, particularly in the intermediate pCO2 scenario. Moreover, in this eurythermal species, moderate warming may play a buffering role in the future responses of organisms to ocean acidification.

Radiocarbon ages, dose rates, water isotopic composition and hydrochemistry of samples from Komakuk Beach and Herschel Island

Terrestrial permafrost archives along the Yukon Coastal Plain (northwest Canada) have recorded landscape development and environmental change since the Late Wisconsinan at the interface of unglaciated Beringia (i.e. Komakuk Beach) and the northwestern limit of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (i.e. Herschel Island). The objective of this paper is to compare the late glacial and Holocene landscape development on both sides of the former ice margin based on permafrost sequences and ground ice. Analyses at these sites involved a multi-proxy approach including: sedimentology, cryostratigraphy, palaeoecology of ostracods, stable water isotopes in ground ice, hydrochemistry, and AMS radiocarbon and infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) dating. AMS and IRSL age determinations yielded full glacial ages at Komakuk Beach that is the northeastern limit of ice-free Beringia. Herschel Island to the east marks the Late Wisconsinan limit of the northwest Laurentide Ice Sheet and is composed of ice-thrust sediments containing plant detritus as young as 16.2 cal ka BP that might provide a maximum age on ice arrival. Late Wisconsinan ice wedges with sediment-rich fillings on Herschel Island are depleted in heavy oxygen isotopes (mean d18O of -29.1 per mil); this, together with low d-excess values, indicates colder-than-modern winter temperatures and probably reduced snow depths. Grain-size distribution and fossil ostracod assemblages indicate that deglaciation of the Herschel Island ice-thrust moraine was accompanied by alluvial, proluvial, and eolian sedimentation on the adjacent unglaciated Yukon Coastal Plain until ~11 cal ka BP during a period of low glacio-eustatic sea level. The late glacial-Holocene transition was marked by higher-than-modern summer temperatures leading to permafrost degradation that began no later than 11.2 cal ka BP and caused a regional thaw unconformity. Cryostructures and ice wedges were truncated while organic matter was incorporated and soluble ions were leached in the thaw zone. Thermokarst activity led to the formation of ice-wedge casts and deposition of thermokarst lake sediments. These were subsequently covered by rapidly accumulating peat during the early Holocene Thermal Maximum. A rising permafrost table, reduced peat accumulation, and extensive ice-wedge growth resulted from climate cooling starting in the middle Holocene until the late 20th century. The reconstruction of palaeolandscape dynamics on the Yukon Coastal Plain and the eastern Beringian edge contributes to unraveling the linkages between ice sheet, ocean, and permafrost that have existed since the Late Wisconsinan.

Temperature measured in permafrost borehole at ICDP site 5011-3 in El'gygytgyn Crater, 2008-2011

This study focuses on the temperature field observed in boreholes drilled as part of interdisciplinary scientific campaign targeting the El'gygytgyn Crater Lake in NE Russia. Temperature data are available from two sites: the lake borehole 5011-1 located near the center of the lake reaching 400 m depth, and the land borehole 5011-3 at the rim of the lake, with a depth of 140 m. Constraints on permafrost depth and past climate changes are derived from numerical simulation of the thermal regime associated with the lake-related talik structure. The thermal properties of the subsurface needed for these simulations are based on laboratory measurements of representative cores from the quaternary sediments and the underlying impact-affected rock, complemented by further information from geophysical logs and data from published literature. The temperature observations in the lake borehole 5011-1 are dominated by thermal perturbations related to the drilling process, and thus only give reliable values for the lowermost value in the borehole. Undisturbed temperature data recorded over more than two years are available in the 140 m deep land-based borehole 5011-3. The analysis of these observations allows determination of not only the recent mean annual ground surface temperature, but also the ground surface temperature history, though with large uncertainties. Although the depth of this borehole is by far too insufficient for a complete reconstruction of past temperatures back to the Last Glacial Maximum, it still affects the thermal regime, and thus permafrost depth. This effect is constrained by numerical modeling: assuming that the lake borehole observations are hardly influenced by the past changes in surface air temperature, an estimate of steady-state conditions is possible, leading to a meaningful value of 14 ± 5 K for the post-glacial warming. The strong curvature of the temperature data in shallower depths around 60 m can be explained by a comparatively large amplitude of the Little Ice Age (up to 4 K), with low temperatures prevailing far into the 20th century. Other mechanisms, like varying porosity, may also have an influence on the temperature profile, however, our modeling studies imply a major contribution from recent climate changes.

Documentation of glaciers and mountain chains in the Nordvestfjord of Scorsby Sound (East Greenland, July 2016) by landscape photography during Maria S. Merian cruise MSM56

From the 12th until the 17th of July 2016, research vessel Maria S. Merian entered the Nordvestfjord of Scorsby Sound (East Greenland) as part of research cruise MSM56, "Ecological chemistry in Arctic fjords". A large variety of chemical and biological parameters of fjord and meltwater were measured during this cruise to characterize biogeochemical fluxes in arctic fjords. The photo documentation described here was a side project. It was started when we were close to the Daugaard-Jensen glacier at the end of the Nordvestfjord and realized that not many people have seen this area before and photos available for scientists are probably rare. These pictures shall help to document climate and landscape changes in a remote area of East Greenland. Pictures were taken with a Panasonic Lumix G6 equipped with either a 14-42 or 45-150 objective (zoom factor available in jpg metadata). Polarizer filters were used on both objectives. The time between taking the pictures and writing down the coordinates was maximally one minute but usually shorter. The uncertainty in position is therefore small as we were steaming slowly most of the time the pictures were taken (i.e. below 5 knots). I assume the uncertainty is in most cases below 200 m radius of the noted position. I did not check the direction I directed the camera to with a compass at the beginning. Hence, the direction that was noted is an approximation based on the navigation map and the positioning of the ship. The uncertainty was probably around +/- 40° but initially (pictures 1-17) perhaps even higher as this documentation was a spontaneous idea and it took some time to get the orientation right. It should be easy, however, to find the location of the mountains and glaciers when being on the respective positions because the mountains have a quite characteristic shape. In a later stage of this documentation, I took pictures from the bridge and used the gyros to approximate the direction the camera was pointed at. Here the uncertainty was much lower (i.e. +/- 20° or better). Directions approximated with the help of gyros have degree values in the overview table. The ship data provided in the MSM56 cruise report will contain all kinds of sensor data from Maria S. Merian sensor setup. This data can also be used to further constrain the position the pictures were taken because the exact time a photo was shot is noted in the metadata of the .jpg photo file. The shipboard clock was set on UTC. It was 57 minutes and 45 seconds behind the time in the camera. For example 12:57:45 on the camera was 12:00:00 UTC on the ship. All pictures provided here can be used for scientific purposes. In case of usage in presentations etc. please acknowledge RV Maria S. Merian (MSM56) and Lennart T. Bach as author. Please inform me and ask for reprint permission in case you want to use the pictures for scientific publications. I would like to thank all participants and the crew of Maria S. Merian Cruise 56 (MSM56, Ecological chemistry in Arctic fjords).

LPJ-LMfire simulations for Europe for the Last Glacial Maximum and preindustrial control, link to netCDF files

This data sets contains LPJ-LMfire dynamic global vegetation model output covering Europe and the Mediterranean for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka) and for a preindustrial control simulation (20th century detrended climate). The netCDF data files are time averages of the final 30 years of the model simulation. Each netCDF file contains four or five variables: fractional cover of 9 plant functional types (PFTs; cover), total fractional coverage of trees (treecover), population density of hunter-gatherers (foragerPD; only for the "people" simulations), fraction of the gridcell burned on 30-year average (burnedf), and vegetation net primary productivity (NPP). The model spatial resolution is 0.5-degrees For the LGM simulations, LPJ-LMfire was driven by the PMIP3 suite of eight GCMs for which LGM climate simulations were available. Also provided in this archive is the result of an LPJ-LMfire run that was forced by the average climate of all GCMs (the "GCM-mean" files), and the average of each of the individual LPJ-LMfire runs over the eight LGM scenarios individually (the "LPJ-mean" files). The model simulations are provided that include the influence of human presence on the landscape (the "people" files), and in a "world without humans" scenario (the "natural" files). Finally this archive contains the preindustrial reference simulation with and without human influence ("PI_reference_people" and "PI_reference_nat", respectively). There are therefore 22 netCDF files in this archive: 8 each of LGM simulations with and without people (total 16) and the "GCM mean" simulation (2 files) and the "LPJ mean" aggregate (2 files), and finally the two preindustrial "control" simulations ("PI"), with and without humans (2 files). In addition to the LPJ-LMfire model output (netCDF files), this archive also contains a table of arboreal pollen percent calculated from pollen samples dated to the LGM at sites throughout (lgmAP.txt), and a table containing the location of archaeological sites dated to the LGM (LGM_archaeological_site_locations.txt).

Sulfate and nitrate firn concentrations on the Greenland ice sheet

Intercomparison of three new chemical ice core records from northern Greenland (covering the time span from approximately 1500 A.D. to present) with previously published records for southern and central Greenland reveals a uniform timing of anthropogenic changes in sulfate and nitrate firn concentrations over the entire ice sheet. The anthropogenic sulfate increase started around 1890, was interrupted by a transient decrease in the 1930s, and has resumed a major increase since 1950. Since the late 1970s though, a significant 30% decline in Greenland sulfate firn levels can be documented. The maximum anthropogenic increase in northern Greenland sulfate firn concentrations (up to 200-230 ppb) is 2-3 times larger than in southern and central Greenland. Nitrate records show an essentially steady increase since 1950 and, documented for the first time, a slight reduction during most recent years. Maximum nitrate firn levels of 100-130 ppb exceed the preindustrial background by 100% all over the Greenland ice sheet. Comparison with anthropogenic SO2 and NO x emission records indicates that the major increase in sulfate firn concentrations since 1950 can be attributed to Eurasian sources, while firn levels during the first half of this century appear to be dominated by North American emissions. A stronger North American source contribution is indicated over the entire 20th century in the case of nitrate. Applying a macroscopic deposition model separate time series for wet and dry deposition were derived which revealed a close correspondence of wet deposited sulfate with the timing of U.S. emissions, while the temporal evolution of Eurasian emissions is mainly reflected in the dry sulfate deposition record. During this century wet sulfate deposition increased by a factor of two while the total dry sulfate deposition flux increased by more than 500%. Wet and dry nitrate deposition both increased by 100% during the same period.

Benthic foraminiferal record and age dating of sediment cores from the Gullmar Fjord at the west coast of Sweden

A high-resolution study of benthic foraminiferal assemblages was performed on a ca. eight metre long sediment core from Gullmar Fjord on the west coast of Sweden. The results of 210Pb- and AMS 14C-datings show that the record includes the two warmest climatic episodes of the last 1500 years: the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the recent warming of the 20th century. Both periods are known to be anomalously warm and associated with positive NAO winter indices. Benthic foraminiferal successions of both periods are compared in order to find faunal similarities and common denominators corresponding to past climate changes. During the MWP, Adercotryma glomerata, Cassidulina laevigata and Nonionella iridea dominated the assemblages. Judging from dominance of species sensitive to hypoxia and the highest faunal diversity for the last ca. 2400 years, the foraminiferal record of the MWP suggests an absence of severe low oxygen events. At the same time, faunas and d13C values both point to high primary productivity and/or increased input of terrestrial organic carbon into the fjord system during the Medieval Warm Period. Comparison of the MWP and recent warming revealed different trends in the faunal record. The thin-shelled foraminifer N. iridea was characteristic of the MWP, but became absent during the second half of the 20th century. The recent Skagerrak-Kattegat fauna was rare or absent during the MWP but established in Gullmar Fjord at the end of the Little Ice Age or in the early 1900s. Also, there are striking differences in the faunal diversity and absolute abundances of foraminifera between both periods. Changes in primary productivity, higher precipitation resulting in intensified land runoff, different oxygen regimes or even changes in the fjord's trophic status are discussed as possible causes of these faunal differences.

Age determination of sediment core PTA02-04 from Laguna Potrok Aike, Patagonia (Table 1)

The volcanogenic lake Laguna Potrok Aike, Santa Cruz, Argentina, reveals an unprecedented continuous high resolution climatic record for the steppe regions of southern Patagonia. With the applied multi-proxy approach rapid climatic changes before the turn of the first millennium were detected followed by medieval droughts which are intersected by moist and/or cold periods of varying durations and intensities. The 'total inorganic carbon' content was identified as a sensitive lake level indicator. This proxy suggests that during the late Middle Ages (ca. AD 1230-1410) the lake level was rather low representing a signal of the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly' in southeastern Patagonia. At the beginning of the 'Little Ice Age' the lake level rose considerably staying on a high level during the whole period. Subsequently, the lake level lowered again in the course of the 20th century.

Hide, survive and hitch a ride, the dispersal of Antarctic krill into the nursery habitats

Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), a key species of Southern Ocean food webs plays a central role in ecosystem processes, community dynamics of apex predators and as a commercial fishery target. A decline in krill abundance during the late 20th century in the SW Atlantic sector has been linked to a concomitant decrease in sea ice, based on the hypothesis that sea ice acts as a feeding ground for overwintering larvae. However, evidence supporting this hypothesis has been scarce due to logistical challenges of collecting data in austral winter. Here we report on a winter study that involved diver observations of larval krill in their under-ice environment, ship-based studies of krill, sea ice physical characteristics, and biophysical model analyses of krill-ocean-ice interactions. We present evidence that complex under-ice topography is vital for larval krill in terms of dispersal and advection into high productive nursery habitats, rather than the provision by the ice environment of food. Further, ongoing changes in sea ice will lead to increases in sea-ice regimes favourable for overwintering larval krill but shifting southwards. This will result in ice-free conditions in the SW Atlantic, which will be conducive for enhancing food supplies due to sufficient light and iron availability, thus enhancing larvae development and growth. However, the associated impact on dispersal and advection may lead to a net shift in krill from the SW Atlantic to regions further east by the eastward flowing ACC and the northern branch of the Weddell Gyre, with profound consequences for the Southern Ocean pelagic ecosystem.

Table 2. Lead and Ba concentrations and Pb isotopic compositions measured in Law Dome ice cores

Lead isotopic compositions and Pb and Ba concentrations have been measured in ice cores from Law Dome, East Antarctica, covering the past 6500 years. 'Natural' background concentrations of Pb (ab. 0.4 pg/g) and Ba (ab. 1.3 pg/g) are observed until 1884 AD, after which increased Pb concentrations and lowered 206Pb/207Pb ratios indicate the influence of anthropogenic Pb. The isotopic composition of 'natural' Pb varies within the range 206Pb/207Pb=1.20-1.25 and 208Pb/207Pb=2.46-2.50, with an average rock and soil dust Pb contribution of 8-12%. A major pollution event is observed at Law Dome between 1884 and 1908 AD, elevating the Pb concentration four-fold and changing 206Pb/207Pb ratios in the ice to ab. 1.12. Based on Pb isotopic systematics and Pb emission statistics, this is attributed to Pb mined at Broken Hill and smelted at Broken Hill and Port Pirie, Australia. Anthropogenic Pb inputs are at their greatest from 1900 to 1910 and from ab. 1960 to ab. 1980. During the 20th century, Ba concentrations are consistently higher than 'natural' levels and are attributed to increased dust production, suggesting the influence of climate change and/or changes in land coverage with vegetation.

Mortality and climatic/environmental correlates of Widdringtonia cedargensis trees in the Cederberg, South Africa

Background: Conifer populations appear disproportionately threatened by global change. Most examples are, however, drawn from the northern hemisphere and long-term rates of population decline are not well documented as historical data are often lacking. We use a large and long-term (1931-2013) repeat photography dataset together with environmental data and fire records to account for the decline of the critically endangered Widdringtonia cedarbergensis. Eighty-seven historical and repeat photo-pairs were analysed to establish 20th century changes in W. cedarbergensis demography. A generalized linear mixed-effects model was fitted to determine the relative importance of environmental factors and fire-return interval on mortality for the species. Results: From an initial total of 1313 live trees in historical photographs, 74% had died and only 44 (3.4%) had recruited in the repeat photographs, leaving 387 live individuals. Juveniles (mature adults) had decreased (increased) from 27% (73%) to 8% (92%) over the intervening period. Our model demonstrates that mortality is related to greater fire frequency, higher temperatures, lower elevations, less rocky habitats and aspect (i.e. east-facing slopes had the least mortality). Conclusions: Our results show that W. cedarbergensis populations have declined significantly over the recorded period, with a pronounced decline in the last 30 years. Individuals that established in open habitats at lower, hotter elevations and experienced a greater fire frequency appear to be more vulnerable to mortality than individuals growing within protected, rocky environments at higher, cooler locations with less frequent fires. Climate models predict increasing temperatures for our study area (and likely increases in wildfires). If these predictions are realised, further declines in the species can be expected. Urgent management interventions, including seedling out-planting in fire-protected high elevation sites, reducing fire frequency in higher elevation populations, and assisted migration, should be considered.

Planktic foraminifera abundances and winter SST reconstruction for sediment core SO90-39KG

The Indian winter monsoon (IWM) is a key component of the seasonally changing monsoon system that affects the densely populated regions of South Asia. Cold winds originating in high northern latitudes provide a link of continental-scale Northern Hemisphere climate to the tropics. Western Disturbances (WD) associated with the IWM play a critical role for the climate and hydrology in northern India and the western Himalaya region. It is vital to understand the mechanisms and teleconnections that influence IWM variability to better predict changes in future climate. Here we present a study of regionally calibrated winter (January) temperatures and according IWM intensities, based on a planktic foraminiferal record with biennial (2.55 years) resolution. Over the last ~250 years, IWM intensities gradually weakened, based on the long-term trend of reconstructed January temperatures. Furthermore, the results indicate that IWM is connected on interannual- to decadal time scales to climate variability of the tropical and extratropical Pacific, via El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, our findings suggest that this relationship appeared to begin to decouple since the beginning of the 20th century. Cross-spectral analysis revealed that several distinct decadal-scale phases of colder climate and accordingly more intense winter monsoon centered at the years ~1800, ~1890 and ~1930 can be linked to changes of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

Late Holocene diatom abundaces in sediment core HC-11

The study of diatoms in core HC11 collected from the southwestern part of Chukchi Sea, allowed to distinguish 3 diatoms ecological zones, reflecting paleoenvironmental changes during the last 2300 years. The sediment age was based on the sedimentation rates, determined by 210Pb and radiocarbon dating of mollusk shells. The environmental changes of Chukchi Sea revealed by examination of diatoms correlates with global climate changes - the warming of the early and middle Subatlantic and cooling of the late Subatlantic (Little Ice Age). Warming early and middle Subatlantic in the Chukchi Sea was probably stronger than the warming of the late 20th century and was not accompanied by significant changes in sea level.