Probability inundation map for a scenario combining storm surge and sea-level rise

Coastal managers require reliable spatial data on the extent and timing of potential coastal inundation, particularly in a changing climate. Most sea level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are undertaken using the easily implemented bathtub approach, where areas adjacent to the sea and below a given elevation are mapped using a deterministic line dividing potentially inundated from dry areas. This method only requires elevation data usually in the form of a digital elevation model (DEM). However, inherent errors in the DEM and spatial analysis of the bathtub model propagate into the inundation mapping. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of spatially variable and spatially correlated elevation errors in high-spatial resolution DEMs for mapping coastal inundation. Elevation errors were best modelled using regression-kriging. This geostatistical model takes the spatial correlation in elevation errors into account, which has a significant impact on analyses that include spatial interactions, such as inundation modelling. The spatial variability of elevation errors was partially explained by land cover and terrain variables. Elevation errors were simulated using sequential Gaussian simulation, a Monte Carlo probabilistic approach. 1,000 error simulations were added to the original DEM and reclassified using a hydrologically correct bathtub method. The probability of inundation to a scenario combining a 1 in 100 year storm event over a 1 m SLR was calculated by counting the proportion of times from the 1,000 simulations that a location was inundated. This probabilistic approach can be used in a risk-aversive decision making process by planning for scenarios with different probabilities of occurrence. For example, results showed that when considering a 1% probability exceedance, the inundated area was approximately 11% larger than mapped using the deterministic bathtub approach. The probabilistic approach provides visually intuitive maps that convey uncertainties inherent to spatial data and analysis.

Radiocarbon dates and dinoflagellate cysts of sediment core DP30PC

To obtain insight into character and potential forcing of short-term climatic and oceanographic variability in the southern Italian region during the "Roman Classical Period" (60 BC-AD 200), climatic and environmental reconstructions based on a dinoflagelate cyst record from a well dated site in the Gulf of Taranto located at the distal end of the Po-river discharge plume have been established with high temporal resolution. Short-term fluctuations in accumulation rates of the Adriatic Surface Water species Lingulodinium machaerophorum, the freshwater algae Concentricystes and species resistant to aerobic degradation indicate that fluctuations in the trophic state of the upper waters are related to river discharge of northern and eastern Italian rivers which in turn are strongly related to precipitation in Italy. The dinoflagellate cyst association indicates that local sea surface temperatures which in this region are strongly linked to local air temperatures were slightly higher than today. We reconstruct that sea surface temperatures have been relatively high and stable between 60 BC-AD 90 and show a decreasing trend after AD 90. Fluctuations in temperature and river discharge rates have a strong cyclic character with main cyclicities of 7-8 and 11 years. We argue that these cycles are related to variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation climate mode. A strong correlation is observed with global variation in Delta14C anomalies suggesting that solar variability might be one of the major forcings of the regional climate. Apart from cyclic climate variability we observed a good correlation between non-cyclic temperature drops and global volcanic activity indicating that the latter forms an additional major forcing factor of the southern Italian climate during the Roman Classical Period.

Temperature reconstruction of sediment cores from the northeastern Arabian Sea

In order to reconstruct the monsoonal variability during the late Holocene we investigated a complete, annually laminated sediment record from the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) off Pakistan for oxygen isotopes of planktic foraminifera and alkenone-derived sea surface temperatures (SST). Significant SST changes of up to 3°C which cannot be explained by changes in the alkenone-producing coccolithophorid species (inferred from the Gephyrocapsa oceanica / Emiliania huxleyi ratio) suggest that SST changes are driven by changes in the monsoon strength. Our high-(decadal)-resolution data indicate that the late Holocene in the northeastern Arabian Sea was not characterized by a stable uniform climate, as inferred from the Greenland ice cores, but by variations in the dominance of the SW monsoon conditions with significant effects on temperatures. Highest SST fluctuations of up to 3.0°C and 2.5°C were observed for the time interval from 4600 to 3300 years B.P. and during the past 500 years. The significant, short-term SST changes during the past 500 years might be related to climatic instabilities known from the northern latitudes ("Little Ice Age") and confirm global effects. Surface salinity values, reconstructed from delta18O records after correction for temperature-related oxygen isotope fractionation, suggest that in general, the past 5000 years were characterized by higher-than-recent evaporation and more intense SW monsoon conditions. However, between 4600 and 3700 years B.P., evaporation dropped, SW monsoon weakened, and NE monsoon conditions were comparatively enhanced. For the past 1500 years we infer strongly fluctuating monsoon conditions. Comparisons of reconstructed salinity records with ice accumulation data from published Tibetan ice core and Tibetan tree ring width data reveal that during the past 2000 years, enhanced evaporation in the northeastern Arabian Sea correlates with periods of increased ice accumulation in Tibet, and vice versa. This suggests a strong climatic relationship between both monsoon-controlled areas.

ERA-interim reanalysis debiased at FLUXNET sites

(preliminary) Exchanges of carbon, water and energy between the land surface and the atmosphere are monitored by eddy covariance technique at the ecosystem level. Currently, the FLUXNET database contains more than 500 sites registered and up to 250 of them sharing data (Free Fair Use dataset). Many modelling groups use the FLUXNET dataset for evaluating ecosystem model's performances but it requires uninterrupted time series for the meteorological variables used as input. Because original in-situ data often contain gaps, from very short (few hours) up to relatively long (some months), we develop a new and robust method for filling the gaps in meteorological data measured at site level. Our approach has the benefit of making use of continuous data available globally (ERA-interim) and high temporal resolution spanning from 1989 to today. These data are however not measured at site level and for this reason a method to downscale and correct the ERA-interim data is needed. We apply this method on the level 4 data (L4) from the LaThuile collection, freely available after registration under a Fair-Use policy. The performances of the developed method vary across sites and are also function of the meteorological variable. On average overall sites, the bias correction leads to cancel from 10% to 36% of the initial mismatch between in-situ and ERA-interim data, depending of the meteorological variable considered. In comparison to the internal variability of the in-situ data, the root mean square error (RMSE) between the in-situ data and the un-biased ERA-I data remains relatively large (on average overall sites, from 27% to 76% of the standard deviation of in-situ data, depending of the meteorological variable considered). The performance of the method remains low for the Wind Speed field, in particular regarding its capacity to conserve a standard deviation similar to the one measured at FLUXNET stations.

Radiocarbon ages and diatom abundance in cores GA306-BC4 and GA306-GC4 obtained during Galathea 3 cruise, West Greenland

Diatom assemblages from Holsteinsborg Dyb on the West Greenland shelf were analysed with high temporal resolution for the last 1200 years. A high degree of consistency between changes in frequency of selected diatom species and instrumental data from the same area during the last 70 years confirms the reliability of diatoms (particularly sea-ice species and warm-water species) for the study of palaeoceanographic changes in this area. A general cooling trend with some fluctuations is marked by an increase in sea-ice species throughout the last 1200 years. A relatively warm period with increased influence of Atlantic water masses of the Irminger Current (IC) is found at AD 750-1330, although with some oceanographic variability after AD 1000. A pronounced oceanographic shift occurred at AD 1330, corresponding in time to the transition from the so-called 'Medieval Warm Period' (MWP) to the 'Little Ice Age' (LIA). The LIA cold episode is characterized by three intervals with particularly cold sea-surface conditions at AD 1330-1350, AD 1400-1575 and AD 1660-1710 as a result of variable influence of Polar waters in the area. During the last 70 years, two relatively warm periods and one cold period (the early 1960s to mid-1990s) are indicated by changes in the diatom components. Our study demonstrates that sedimentary records on the West Greenland shelf provide valuable palaeoenvironment data that confirm a linkage between local and large-scale North Atlantic oceanographic and atmospheric oscillations.

Geochemistry of FeMn oxyhydroxides of IODP Site 303-U1302 and 303-1303

Regional weathering intensity must have changed dramatically at high latitudes during the Quaternary as a consequence of repeated continental glaciation. Investigation of these glacial/interglacial changes at high temporal resolution is possible with the recent development of Pb isotopes in FeMn oxyhydroxide phases as a proxy for region-specific weathering intensity, where increases in the radiogenic component are thought to correspond to increased continental weathering fluxes. Here we present a Pb isotope record sourced from the FeMn oxyhydroxide fraction in marine sediments from IODP Sites U1302/3 on Orphan Knoll (~3500 mbsl, NW Atlantic), spanning the last 37 ka. Located at the eastern edge of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS), Site U1302/3 is well-placed to monitor changes in weathering intensity associated with LIS glacial history. Overall, the data show a close correspondence to local surface water d18O, with least radiogenic values during times of heavy d18O (glacial maximum) and most radiogenic values during times of light d18O (Holocene). This supports the prediction that weathering intensity in glaciated regions of the North Atlantic correlates with the exposure age of glacial debris. Superimposed on these background trends are extreme radiogenic excursions (e.g. variation in 206Pb/204Pb from ~19.2-21.0) contemporaneous with Heinrich events and the Younger Dryas. These data are substantially more radiogenic than existing records from the NW Atlantic, and most likely represent episodes of exceptionally high inputs of pre-formed FeMn oxyhydroxides during drainage of the LIS. Due to its extreme isotope composition, at least in the NW Atlantic region, Pb would appear to be a good proxy for the fluxes of weathered continental material and perhaps, by inference, nutrients to the surface ocean

Seagrass time-series analysis products, in Moreton Bay, Australia, with links to GeoTIFFs

The spatial and temporal dynamics of seagrasses have been well studied at the leaf to patch scales, however, the link to large spatial extent landscape and population dynamics is still unresolved in seagrass ecology. Traditional remote sensing approaches have lacked the temporal resolution and consistency to appropriately address this issue. This study uses two high temporal resolution time-series of thematic seagrass cover maps to examine the spatial and temporal dynamics of seagrass at both an inter- and intra-annual time scales, one of the first globally to do so at this scale. Previous work by the authors developed an object-based approach to map seagrass cover level distribution from a long term archive of Landsat TM and ETM+ images on the Eastern Banks (~200 km**2), Moreton Bay, Australia. In this work a range of trend and time-series analysis methods are demonstrated for a time-series of 23 annual maps from 1988 to 2010 and a time-series of 16 monthly maps during 2008-2010. Significant new insight was presented regarding the inter- and intra-annual dynamics of seagrass persistence over time, seagrass cover level variability, seagrass cover level trajectory, and change in area of seagrass and cover levels over time. Overall we found that there was no significant decline in total seagrass area on the Eastern Banks, but there was a significant decline in seagrass cover level condition. A case study of two smaller communities within the Eastern Banks that experienced a decline in both overall seagrass area and condition are examined in detail, highlighting possible differences in environmental and process drivers. We demonstrate how trend and time-series analysis enabled seagrass distribution to be appropriately assessed in context of its spatial and temporal history and provides the ability to not only quantify change, but also describe the type of change. We also demonstrate the potential use of time-series analysis products to investigate seagrass growth and decline as well as the processes that drive it. This study demonstrates clear benefits over traditional seagrass mapping and monitoring approaches, and provides a proof of concept for the use of trend and time-series analysis of remotely sensed seagrass products to benefit current endeavours in seagrass ecology.

A database of multi-year (2004-2010) quality-assured surface solar hourly irradiation measurements for the Egyptian territory

A database containing the global and diffuse components of the surface solar hourly irradiation measured from 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2010 at eight stations of the Egyptian Meteorological Authority is presented. For three of these sites (Cairo, Aswan, and El-Farafra), the direct component is also available. In addition, a series of meteorological variables including surface pressure, relative humidity, temperature, wind speed and direction is provided at the same hourly resolution at all stations. The details of the experimental sites and instruments used for the acquisition are given. Special attention is paid to the quality of the data and the procedure applied to flag suspicious or erroneous measurements is described in details. Between 88 and 99% of the daytime measurements are validated by this quality control. Except at Barrani where the number is lower (13500), between 20000 and 29000 measurements of global and diffuse hourly irradiation are available at all sites for the 7-year period. Similarly, from 9000 to 13000 measurements of direct hourly irradiation values are provided for the three sites where this component is measured. With its high temporal resolution this consistent irradiation and meteorological database constitutes a reliable source to estimate the potential of solar energy in Egypt. It is also adapted to the study of high-frequency atmospheric processes such as the impact of aerosols on atmospheric radiative transfer. In the next future, it is planned to complete regularly the present 2004-2010 database.

Phosphorus partition and acumulation rates in sediments of ODP Legs 130 and 138

Understanding phosphorus (P) geochemistry and burial in oceanic sediments is important because of the role of P for modulating oceanic productivity on long timescales. We investigated P geochemistry in seven equatorial Pacific sites over the last 53 Ma, using a sequential extraction technique to elucidate sedimentary P composition and P diagenesis within the sediments. The dominant P-bearing component in these sediments is authigenic P (61-86% of total P), followed in order of relative dominance by iron-bound P (7-17%), organic P (3-12%), adsorbed P (2-9%), and detrital P (0-1%). Clear temporal trends in P component composition exist. Organic P decreases rapidly in younger sediments in the eastern Pacific (the only sites with high sample resolution in the younger intervals), from a mean concentration of 2.3 µmol P/g sediment in the 0-1 Ma interval to 0.4 µmol/g in the 5- 6 Ma interval. Over this same time interval, decreases are also observed for iron-bound P (from 2.1 to 1.1 µmol P/g) and adsorbed P (from 1.5 to 0.7 µmol P/g). These decreases are in contrast to increases in authigenic P (from 6.0-9.6 µmol P/g) and no significant changes in detrital P (0.1 µmol P/g) and total P (12 µmol P/g). These temporal trends in P geochemistry suggest that (1) organic matter, the principal shuttle of P to the seafloor, is regenerated in sediments and releases associated P to interstitial waters, (2) P associated with iron-rich oxyhydroxides is released to interstitial waters upon microbial iron reduction, (3) the decrease in adsorbed P with age and depth probably indicates a similar decrease in interstitial water P concentrations, and (4) carbonate fluorapatite (CFA), or another authigenic P-bearing phase, precipitates due to the release of P from organic matter and iron oxyhydroxides and becomes an increasingly significant P sink with age and depth. The reorganization of P between various sedimentary pools, and its eventual incorporation in CFA, has been recognized in a variety of continental margin environments, but this is the first time these processes have been revealed in deep-sea sediments. Phosphorus accumulation rate data from this study and others indicates that the global pre-anthropogenic input rate of P to the ocean (20x10**10 mol P/yr) is about a factor of four times higher than previously thought, supporting recent suggestions that the residence time of P in the oceans may be as short as 10000-20000 years.

Benthic and substrate cover data derived from photo-transect surveys in Heron Reef

Underwater georeferenced photo-transect survey was conducted on September 23 - 27, 2007 at different sections of the reef flat, reef crest and reef slope in Heron Reef. For this survey a snorkeler or diver swam over the bottom while taking photos of the benthos at a set height using a standard digital camera and towing a surface float GPS which was logging its track every five seconds. A standard digital compact camera was placed in an underwater housing and fitted with a 16 mm lens which provided a 1.0 m x 1.0 m footprint, at 0.5 m height above the benthos. Horizontal distance between photos was estimated by three fin kicks of the survey diver/snorkeler, which corresponded to a surface distance of approximately 2.0 - 4.0 m. The GPS was placed in a dry-bag and logged its position as it floated at the surface while being towed by the photographer. A total of 3,586 benthic photos were taken. A floating GPS setup connected to the swimmer/diver by a line enabled recording of coordinates of each benthic. Approximation of coordinates of each benthic photo was done based on the photo timestamp and GPS coordinate time stamp, using GPS Photo Link Software (www.geospatialexperts.com). Coordinates of each photo were interpolated by finding the gps coordinates that were logged at a set time before and after the photo was captured. Benthic or substrate cover data was derived from each photo by randomly placing 24 points over each image using the Coral Point Count excel program (Kohler and Gill, 2006). Each point was then assigned to 1 out of 80 cover types, which represented the benthic feature beneath it. Benthic cover composition summary of each photo scores was generated automatically using CPCE program. The resulting benthic cover data of each photo was linked to gps coordinates, saved as an ArcMap point shapefile, and projected to Universal Transverse Mercator WGS84 Zone 56 South.

Biomass and stable isotope composition of plankton in five size fractions along a zonal transect (24°N) from the Canary Islands to Florida in January-March 2011

The spatial variability of biomass and stable isotopes in plankton size fractions in the upper 200 m was studied in a high spatial resolution transect along 24°N from Canary Islands to Florida (January - March 2011) during Leg 8 of the Malaspina-2010 expedition (http://www.expedicionmalaspina.es) to determine nitrogen and carbon sources. Plankton samples were collected by vertical tows of a microplankton net (40 mm mesh size) and a mesoplankton net (200 mm mesh size) through the upper 200 m of the water column. Sampling was between 10:00 and 16:00 h GMT. Plankton was separated into five size fractions (40 - 200, 200 - 500, 500 - 1000, 1000 - 2000 and > 2000 mm) by gentle filtration of the samples by a graded series of nylon sieves (2000, 1000, 500, 200 and 40 mm). Large gelatinous organisms were removed before filtration. Aliquots for each size fraction were collected on pre-weighed glass-fibre filters, dried (60°C, 48 h) and stored in a desiccator before determination of biomass (dry weight), carbon and nitrogen content and natural abundance of stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes ashore. Vertical advection of waters predominated in lateral zones while the central Atlantic (30-70°W) was characterized by a strong stratification and oligotrophic surface waters. Plankton biomass was low in the central zone and high in both eastern and western sides, with most of the variability due to either large (>2000 µm) and small plankton (<500 µm). Carbon isotopes reflected mainly the advection the deep water in lateral zones. Stable nitrogen isotopes showed a nearly symmetrical spatial distribution in all fractions, with the lowest values (delta15N <1per mill) in the central zone, and were inversely correlated to carbon stable isotopes (delta13C) and to the abundance of the nitrogen-fixer Trichodesmium. Diazotrophy was estimated to account for >50% of organic nitrogen in the central zone, and even >30% in eastern and western zones. The impact of diazotrophy increased with the size of the organisms, supporting the wide participation of all trophic levels in the processing of recently fixed nitrogen. These results indicate that atmospheric sources of carbon and nitrogen prevail over deep water sources in the subtropical North Atlantic and that the zone influenced by diazotrophy is much larger than reported in previous studies.

Characteristics of eggs and female adults of Calanus finmarchicus, C. glacialis and C. hyperboreus from Disko Bay, western Greenland

This is the first high temporal-resolution study in Disko Bay covering population dynamics, grazing, reproduction, and biochemical composition of 3 dominating copepod species (Calanus finmarchicus, C. glacialis and C. hyperboreus) from late winter to midsummer in 2008. C. finmarchicus and C. glacialis ascended to the surface layer at the onset of the spring phytoplankton bloom, followed by C. hyperboreus 2 wk later. C. finmarchicus spawning occurred during the bloom and postbloom period, partially fueled by wax esters. C. glacialis commenced spawning before the bloom, yet it was greatly stimulated when food became available. However, feeding and reproduction was terminated after the main bloom despite the presence of food. In terms of feeding, this was also the strategy for C. hyperboreus. Between pre-bloom and post-bloom, C. finmarchicus showed an increase in carbon, nitrogen, and phospholipid content but a decrease in total lipid content. This was likely the result of protein synthesis, oocyte maturation, and spawning fueled by wax esters and by feeding. C. glacialis showed a similar pattern, although with an increasing total lipid content from pre-bloom to post-bloom, and an increasing wax ester and decreasing phospholipid content after reproduction was terminated. C. hyperboreus showed greatly increased content of carbon, nitrogen, and all lipid classes between the pre- and post-bloom periods. Hence, C. finmarchicus commenced feeding and spawning at the onset of the bloom and continued throughout the remaining study period. Both C. glacialis and C. hyperboreus females refueled their storage lipids (wax esters) during the bloom and post-bloom period, suggesting that they may spawn in an additional year.

30 years of synoptic observations from Neumayer Station with links to datasets

High temporal resolution (three hours) records of temperature, wind speed and sea level pressure recorded at Antarctic research station Neumayer (70°S, 8°W) during 1982-2011 are analysed to identify oscillations from daily to intraseasonal timescales. The diurnal cycle dominates the three-hourly time series of temperature during the Antarctic summer and is almost absent during winter. In contrast, the three-hourly time series of wind speed and sea level pressure show a weak diurnal cycle. The dominant pattern of the intraseasonal variability of these quantities, which captures the out-of-phase variation of temperature and wind speed with sea level pressure, shows enhanced variability at timescales of ~ 40 days and ~ 80 days, respectively. Correlation and composite analysis reveal that these oscillations may be related to tropical intraseasonal oscillations via large-scale eastward propagating atmospheric circulation wave-trains. The second pattern of intraseasonal variability, which captures in-phase variations of temperature, wind and sea level pressure, shows enhanced variability at timescales of ~ 35, ~ 60 and ~ 120 days. These oscillations are attributed to the Southern Annular Mode/Antarctic Oscillation (SAM/AAO) which shows enhanced variability at these timescales. We argue that intraseasonal oscillations of tropical climate and SAM/AAO are related to distinct patterns of climate variables measured at Neumayer.