Maps (pdf) and raster images (tif) of predicted rural land cover suitability under current (2010) conditions and future climate scenarios

This study projects land cover probabilities under climate change for corn (maize), soybeans, spring and winter wheat, winter wheat-soybean double cropping, cotton, grassland and forest across 16 central U.S. states at a high spatial resolution, while also taking into account the influence of soil characteristics and topography. The scenarios span three oceanic-atmospheric global circulation models, three Representative Concentration Pathways, and three time periods (2040, 2070, 2100). As climate change intensifies, the suitable area for all six crops display large northward shifts. Total suitable area for spring wheat, followed by corn and soybeans, diminish. Suitable area for winter wheat and for winter wheat-soybean double-cropping expand northward, while cotton suitability migrates to new, more northerly, locations. Suitability for forest intensifies in the south while yielding to crops in the north; grassland intensifies in the western Great Plains as crop suitability diminishes. To maintain current broad geographic patterns of land use, large changes in the thermal response of crops such as corn would be required. A transition from corn-soybean to winter wheat-soybean doubling cropping is an alternative adaptation.

The Lena River Delta - Land cover classification of tundra environments based on Landsat 7 ETM+ data and its application for upscaling of methane emissions

The Lena River Delta, situated in Northern Siberia (72.0 - 73.8° N, 122.0 - 129.5° E), is the largest Arctic delta and covers 29,000 km**2. Since natural deltas are characterised by complex geomorphological patterns and various types of ecosystems, high spatial resolution information on the distribution and extent of the delta environments is necessary for a spatial assessment and accurate quantification of biogeochemical processes as drivers for the emission of greenhouse gases from tundra soils. In this study, the first land cover classification for the entire Lena Delta based on Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) images was conducted and used for the quantification of methane emissions from the delta ecosystems on the regional scale. The applied supervised minimum distance classification was very effective with the few ancillary data that were available for training site selection. Nine land cover classes of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems in the wetland dominated (72%) Lena Delta could be defined by this classification approach. The mean daily methane emission of the entire Lena Delta was calculated with 10.35 mg CH4/m**2/d. Taking our multi-scale approach into account we find that the methane source strength of certain tundra wetland types is lower than calculated previously on coarser scales.

Baseline characteristics of climate, permafrost, and land cover from Samoylov Island, Lena River Delta, Siberia

Samoylov Island is centrally located within the Lena River Delta at 72° N, 126° E and lies within the Siberian zone of continuous permafrost. The landscape on Samoylov Island consists mainly of late Holocene river terraces with polygonal tundra, ponds and lakes, and an active floodplain. The island has been the focus of numerous multidisciplinary studies since 1993, which have focused on climate, land cover, ecology, hydrology, permafrost and limnology. This paper aims to provide a framework for future studies by describing the characteristics of the island's meteorological parameters (temperature, radiation and snow cover), soil temperature, and soil moisture. The land surface characteristics have been described using high resolution aerial images in combination with data from ground-based observations. Of note is that deeper permafrost temperatures have increased between 0.3 to 1.3 °C over the last five years. However, no clear warming of air and active layer temperatures is detected since 1998, though winter air temperatures during recent years have not been as cold as in earlier years.

Land cover classification of Samoylov Island and Landsat subpixel water cover of Lena River Delta, Siberia, with links to ESRI grid files

Ignoring small-scale heterogeneities in Arctic land cover may bias estimates of water, heat and carbon fluxes in large-scale climate and ecosystem models. We investigated subpixel-scale heterogeneity in CHRIS/PROBA and Landsat-7 ETM+ satellite imagery over ice-wedge polygonal tundra in the Lena Delta of Siberia, and the associated implications for evapotranspiration (ET) estimation. Field measurements were combined with aerial and satellite data to link fine-scale (0.3 m resolution) with coarse-scale (upto 30 m resolution) land cover data. A large portion of the total wet tundra (80%) and water body area (30%) appeared in the form of patches less than 0.1 ha in size, which could not be resolved with satellite data. Wet tundra and small water bodies represented about half of the total ET in summer. Their contribution was reduced to 20% in fall, during which ET rates from dry tundra were highest instead. Inclusion of subpixel-scale water bodies increased the total water surface area of the Lena Delta from 13% to 20%. The actual land/water proportions within each composite satellite pixel was best captured with Landsat data using a statistical downscaling approach, which is recommended for reliable large-scale modelling of water, heat and carbon exchange from permafrost landscapes.

A fractional vegetation cover remote sensing product on pan-arctic scale with link to geotiff image

The paper presents first results of a pan-boreal scale land cover harmonization and classification. A methodology is presented that combines global and regional vegetation datasets to extract percentage cover information for different vegetation physiognomy and barren for the pan-arctic region within the ESA Data User Element Permafrost. Based on the legend description of each land cover product the datasets are harmonized into four LCCS (Land Cover Classification System) classifiers which are linked to the MODIS Vegetation Continuous Field (VCF) product. Harmonized land cover and Vegetation Continuous Fields products are combined to derive a best estimate of percentage cover information for trees, shrubs, herbaceous and barren areas for Russia. Future work will concentrate on the expansion of the developed methodology to the pan-arctic scale. Since the vegetation builds an isolation layer, which protects the permafrost from heat and cold temperatures, a degradation of this layer due to fire strongly influences the frozen conditions in the soil. Fire is an important disturbance factor which affects vast processes and dynamics in ecosystems (e.g. biomass, biodiversity, hydrology, etc.). Especially in North Eurasia the fire occupancy has dramatically increased in the last 50 years and has doubled in the 1990s with respect to the last five decades. A comparison of global and regional fire products has shown discrepancies between the amounts of burn scars detected by different algorithms and satellite data.

Downscaled land surface temperatures obtained by a particle smoothing approach, with links to NetCDF files

This dataset contains continuous time series of land surface temperature (LST) at spatial resolution of 300m around the 12 experimental sites of the PAGE21 project (grant agreement number 282700, funded by the EC seventh Framework Program theme FP7-ENV-2011). This dataset was produced from hourly LST time series at 25km scale, retrieved from SSM/I data (André et al., 2015, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2015.01.028) and downscaled to 300m using a dynamic model and a particle smoothing approach. This methodology is based on two main assumptions. First, LST spatial variability is mostly explained by land cover and soil hydric state. Second, LST is unique for a land cover class within the low resolution pixel. Given these hypotheses, this variable can be estimated using a land cover map and a physically based land surface model constrained with observations using a data assimilation process. This methodology described in Mechri et al. (2014, doi:10.1002/2013JD020354) was applied to the ORCHIDEE land surface model (Krinner et al., 2005, doi:10.1029/2003GB002199) to estimate prior values of each land cover class provided by the ESA CCI-Land Cover product (Bontemps et al., 2013) at 300m resolution . The assimilation process (particle smoother) consists in simulating ensemble of LST time series for each land cover class and for a large number of parameter sets. For each parameter set, the resulting temperatures are aggregated considering the grid fraction of each land cover and compared to the coarse observations. Miniminizing the distance between the aggregated model solutions and the observations allow us to select the simulated LST and the corresponding parameter sets which fit the observations most closely. The retained parameter sets are then duplicated and randomly perturbed before simulating the next time window. At the end, the most likely LST of each land cover class are estimated and used to reconstruct LST maps at 300m resolution using ESA CCI-Land Cover. The resulting temperature maps on which ice pixels were masked, are provided at daily time step during the nine-year analysis period (2000-2009).

Macroinvertebrate abundance in montane tropical streams of varying land-use, Ecuador

Despite the importance of tropical montane cloud forest streams, studies investigating aquatic communities in these regions are rare and knowledge on the driving factors of community structure is missing. The objectives of this study therefore were to understand how land-use influences habitat structure and macroinvertebrate communities in cloud forest streams of southern Ecuador. We evaluated these relationships in headwater streams with variable land cover, using multivariate statistics to identify relationships between key habitat variables and assemblage structure, and to resolve differences in composition among sites. Results show that shading intensity, substrate type and pH were the environmental parameters most closely related to variation in community composition observed among sites. In addition, macroinvertebrate density and partly diversity was lower in forested sites, possibly because the pH in forested streams lowered to almost 5 during spates. Standard bioindicator metrics were unable to detect the changes in assemblage structure between disturbed and forested streams. In general, our results indicate that tropical montane headwater streams are complex and heterogeneous ecosystems with low invertebrate densities. We also found that some amount of disturbance, i.e. patchy deforestation, can lead at least initially to an increase in macroinvertebrate taxa richness of these streams.

Soil organic carbon storage and soil properties for 50 soil profiles in the Lena River Delta including land form description and map

To project the future development of the soil organic carbon (SOC) storage in permafrost environments, the spatial and vertical distribution of key soil properties and their landscape controls needs to be understood. This article reports findings from the Arctic Lena River Delta where we sampled 50 soil pedons. These were classified according to the U.S.D.A. Soil Taxonomy and fall mostly into the Gelisol soil order used for permafrost-affected soils. Soil profiles have been sampled for the active layer (mean depth 58±10 cm) and the upper permafrost to one meter depth. We analyze SOC stocks and key soil properties, i.e. C%, N%, C/N, bulk density, visible ice and water content. These are compared for different landscape groupings of pedons according to geomorphology, soil and land cover and for different vertical depth increments. High vertical resolution plots are used to understand soil development. These show that SOC storage can be highly variable with depth. We recommend the treatment of permafrost-affected soils according to subdivisions into: the surface organic layer, mineral subsoil in the active layer, organic enriched cryoturbated or buried horizons and the mineral subsoil in the permafrost. The major geomorphological units of a subregion of the Lena River Delta were mapped with a land form classification using a data-fusion approach of optical satellite imagery and digital elevation data to upscale SOC storage. Landscape mean SOC storage is estimated to 19.2±2.0 kg C/m**2. Our results show that the geomorphological setting explains more soil variability than soil taxonomy classes or vegetation cover. The soils from the oldest, Pleistocene aged, unit of the delta store the highest amount of SOC per m**2 followed by the Holocene river terrace. The Pleistocene terrace affected by thermal-degradation, the recent floodplain and bare alluvial sediments store considerably less SOC in descending order.

(Table 1) Species richness and diversity of tundra plants in herbivore exclosure and control plots near Barrow, Alaska

To determine the role lemmings play in structuring plant communities and their contribution to the 'greening of the Arctic', we measured plant cover and biomass in 50 + year old lemming exclosures and control plots in the coastal tundra near Barrow, Alaska. The response of plant functional types to herbivore exclusion varied among land cover types. In general, the abundance of lichens and bryophytes increased with the exclusion of lemmings, whereas graminoids decreased, although the magnitude of these responses varied among land cover types. These results suggest that sustained lemming activity promotes a higher biomass of vascular plant functional types than would be expected without their presence and highlights the importance of considering herbivory when interpreting patterns of greening in the Arctic. In light of the rapid environmental change ongoing in the Arctic and the potential regional to global implications of this change, further exploration regarding the long-term influence of arvicoline rodents on ecosystem function (e.g. carbon and energy balance) should be considered a research priority.

Percent cropland coverage for sub-Saharan Africa

The dataset contains a cropland percent coverage map for Africa created through the combination of five existing land cover products: GLC-2000, MODIS Land Cover, GlobCover, MODIS Crop Likelihood and AfriCover. A synergy map was created in which the products are ranked by experts, which reflects the likelihood or probability that a given pixel is cropland. The cropland map was calibrated with national and sub-national crop statistics using a novel approach. Preliminary validation of the map was undertaken. The resulting cropland map has an accuracy of 83%, which is higher than the accuracy of any of the individual maps. The cropland percent coverage map for Africa is available for overlay on Google Earth or for download at http://agriculture.geo-wiki.org.