77 resultados para Change points


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The members of the two International Glaciological Greenland Expeditions (EGIG) in 1959 and 1968 determined the altitudes in the West-East-profile by levelling. The comparison of these two measurements gives evidence of the change of altitudes and of the surface-waves. The ways of measurement and of analysis are described here. The graphic representation of the result is discussed here in connexion with the possible causes.

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In this study, ICESat altimetry data are used to provide precise lake elevations of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during the period of 2003-2009. Among the 261 lakes examined ICESat data are available on 111 lakes: 74 lakes with ICESat footprints for 4-7 years and 37 lakes with footprints for 1 -3 years. This is the first time that precise lake elevation data are provided for the 111 lakes. Those ICESat elevation data can be used as baselines for future changes in lake levels as well as for changes during the 2003-2009 period. It is found that in the 74 lakes (56 salt lakes) examined, 62 (i.e. 84%) of all lakes and 50 (i.e. 89%) of the salt lakes show tendency of lake level increase. The mean lake water level increase rate is 0.23 m/year for the 56 salt lakes and 0.27 m/year for the 50 salt lakes of water level increase. The largest lake level increase rate (0.80 m/year) found in this study is the lake Cedo Caka. The 74 lakes are grouped into four subareas based on geographical locations and change tendencies in lake levels. Three of the four subareas show increased lake levels. The mean lake level change rates for subareas I, II, III, IV, and the entire TP are 0.12, 0.26, 0.19, -0.11, and 0.2 m/year, respectively. These recent increases in lake level, particularly for a high percentage of salt lakes, supports accelerated glacier melting due to global warming as the most likely cause.

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Lake Baikal, the world's most voluminous freshwater lake, has experienced unprecedented warming during the last decades. A uniquely diverse amphipod fauna inhabits the littoral zone and can serve as a model system to identify the role of thermal tolerance under climate change. This study aimed to identify sublethal thermal constraints in two of the most abundant endemic Baikal amphipods, Eulimnogammarus verrucosus and Eulimnogammarus cyaneus, and Gammarus lacustris, a ubiquitous gammarid of the Holarctic. As the latter is only found in some shallow isolated bays of the lake, we further addressed the question whether rising temperatures could promote the widespread invasion of this non-endemic species into the littoral zone. Animals were exposed to gradual temperature increases (4 week, 0.8 °C/d; 24 h, 1 °C/h) starting from the reported annual mean temperature of the Baikal littoral (6 °C). Within the framework of oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT), we used a nonlinear regression approach to determine the points at which the changing temperature-dependence of relevant physiological processes indicates the onset of limitation. Limitations in ventilation representing the first limits of thermal tolerance (pejus (= "getting worse") temperatures (Tp)) were recorded at 10.6 (95% confidence interval; 9.5, 11.7), 19.1 (17.9, 20.2), and 21.1 (19.8, 22.4) °C in E. verrucosus, E. cyaneus, and G. lacustris, respectively. Field observations revealed that E. verrucosus retreated from the upper littoral to deeper and cooler waters once its Tp was surpassed, identifying Tp as the ecological thermal boundary. Constraints in oxygen consumption at higher than critical temperatures (Tc) led to an exponential increase in mortality in all species. Exposure to short-term warming resulted in higher threshold values, consistent with a time dependence of thermal tolerance. In conclusion, species-specific limits to oxygen supply capacity are likely key in the onset of constraining (beyond pejus) and then life-threatening (beyond critical) conditions. Ecological consequences of these limits are mediated through behavioral plasticity in E. verrucosus. However, similar upper thermal limits in E. cyaneus (endemic, Baikal) and G. lacustris (ubiquitous, Holarctic) indicate that the potential invader G. lacustris would not necessarily benefit from rising temperatures. Secondary effects of increasing temperatures remain to be investigated.

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Quantifying the spatial and temporal sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity changes of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool is essential to understand the role of this region in connection with abrupt climate changes particularly during the last deglaciation. In this study we reconstruct SST and seawater d18O of the tropical eastern Indian Ocean for the past 40,000 years from two sediment cores (GeoB 10029-4, 1°30'S, 100°08'E, and GeoB 10038-4, 5°56'S, 103°15'E) retrieved offshore Sumatra. Our results show that annual mean SSTs increased about 2-3 °C at 19,000 years ago and exhibited southern hemisphere-like timing and pattern during the last deglaciation. Our SST records together with other Mg/Ca-based SST reconstructions around Indonesia do not track the monsoon variation since the last glacial period, as recorded by terrestrial monsoon archives. However, the spatial SST heterogeneity might be a result of changing monsoon intensity that shifts either the annual mean SSTs or the seasonality of G. ruber towards the warmer or the cooler season at different locations. Seawater d18O reconstructions north of the equator suggest fresher surface conditions during the last glacial and track the northern high-latitude climate change during the last deglaciation. In contrast, seawater ?18O records south of the equator do not show a significant difference between the last glacial period and the Holocene, and lack Bølling-Allerød and Younger Dryas periods suggestive of additional controls on annual mean surface hydrology in this part of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool.

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Ocean acidification (OA) is a reduction in oceanic pH due to increased absorption of anthropogenically produced CO2. This change alters the seawater concentrations of inorganic carbon species that are utilized by macroalgae for photosynthesis and calcification: CO2 and HCO3 increase; CO32 decreases. Two common methods of experimentally reducing seawater pH differentially alter other aspects of carbonate chemistry: the addition of CO2 gas mimics changes predicted due to OA, while the addition of HCl results in a comparatively lower [HCO3]. We measured the short-term photosynthetic responses of five macroalgal species with various carbon-use strategies in one of three seawater pH treatments: pH 7.5 lowered by bubbling CO2 gas, pH 7.5 lowered by HCl, and ambient pH 7.9. There was no difference in photosynthetic rates between the CO2, HCl, or pH 7.9 treatments for any of the species examined. However, the ability of macroalgae to raise the pH of the surrounding seawater through carbon uptake was greatest in the pH 7.5 treatments. Modeling of pH change due to carbon assimilation indicated that macroalgal species that could utilize HCO3 increased their use of CO2 in the pH 7.5 treatments compared to pH 7.9 treatments. Species only capable of using CO2 did so exclusively in all treatments. Although CO2 is not likely to be limiting for photosynthesis for the macroalgal species examined, the diffusive uptake of CO2 is less energetically expensive than active HCO3 uptake, and so HCO3-using macroalgae may benefit in future seawater with elevated CO2.