26 resultados para Average Run Length (ARL), Bayesian Estimation, Control Chart, g-and-k Distributions, Non-normality


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This data sets contains LPJ-LMfire dynamic global vegetation model output covering Europe and the Mediterranean for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka) and for a preindustrial control simulation (20th century detrended climate). The netCDF data files are time averages of the final 30 years of the model simulation. Each netCDF file contains four or five variables: fractional cover of 9 plant functional types (PFTs; cover), total fractional coverage of trees (treecover), population density of hunter-gatherers (foragerPD; only for the "people" simulations), fraction of the gridcell burned on 30-year average (burnedf), and vegetation net primary productivity (NPP). The model spatial resolution is 0.5-degrees For the LGM simulations, LPJ-LMfire was driven by the PMIP3 suite of eight GCMs for which LGM climate simulations were available. Also provided in this archive is the result of an LPJ-LMfire run that was forced by the average climate of all GCMs (the "GCM-mean" files), and the average of each of the individual LPJ-LMfire runs over the eight LGM scenarios individually (the "LPJ-mean" files). The model simulations are provided that include the influence of human presence on the landscape (the "people" files), and in a "world without humans" scenario (the "natural" files). Finally this archive contains the preindustrial reference simulation with and without human influence ("PI_reference_people" and "PI_reference_nat", respectively). There are therefore 22 netCDF files in this archive: 8 each of LGM simulations with and without people (total 16) and the "GCM mean" simulation (2 files) and the "LPJ mean" aggregate (2 files), and finally the two preindustrial "control" simulations ("PI"), with and without humans (2 files). In addition to the LPJ-LMfire model output (netCDF files), this archive also contains a table of arboreal pollen percent calculated from pollen samples dated to the LGM at sites throughout (lgmAP.txt), and a table containing the location of archaeological sites dated to the LGM (LGM_archaeological_site_locations.txt).

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The upper Holocene marine section from a kasten core taken from the oxygen minimum zone off Karachi (Pakistan) at water depth 700 m contains continuously laminated sediments with a sedimentation rate of 1.2 mm/yr and a unique record of monsoonal climatic variability covering the past 5000 years. Our chronostratigraphy is based on varve counts verified by conventional and AMS14C dating. Individual hemipelagic varve couplets are about 0.8-1.5 mm thick, with light-colored terrigenous laminae (A) deposited mainly during the winter monsoon alternating with dark-colored laminae (B) rich in marine organic matter, coccoliths, and fish debris that reflect deposition during the high-productivity season of the late summer monsoon (August-October). Precipitation and river runoff appear to control varve thickness and turbidite frequency. We infer that precipitation decreased in the river watershed (indicated by thinning varves) after 3500-4000 yr B.P. This is about the time of increasing aridification in the Near East and Middle East, as documented by decreasing Nile River runoff data and lake-level lowstands between Turkey and northwestern India. This precipitation pattern continued until today with precipitation minima about 2200-1900 yr B.P., 1000 yr B.P., and in the late Middle Ages (700-400 yr B.P.), and precipitation maxima in the intervening periods. As documented by spectral analysis, the thickness of varve couplets responds to the average length of a 250-yr cycle, a 125-yr cycle, the Gleissberg cycle of solar activity (95 yr), and a 56-yr cycle of unknown origin. Higher frequency cycles are also present at 45, 39, 29-31, and 14 yr. The sedimentary gray-value also shows strong variability in the 55-yr band plus a 31-yr cycle. Because high-frequency cyclicity in the ENSO band (ca. 3.5 and 5 yr) is only weakly expressed, our data do not support a straightforward interaction of the Pacific ENSO with the monsoon-driven climate system of the Arabian Sea.

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We investigated the effects of ocean acidification on juvenile clams Ruditapes decussatus (average shell length 10.24 mm) in a controlled CO2 perturbation experiment. The carbonate chemistry of seawater was manipulated by diffusing pure CO2, to attain two reduced pH levels (by -0.4 and -0.7 pH units), which were compared to unmanipulated seawater. After 75 days we found no differences among pH treatments in terms of net calcification, size or weight of the clams. The naturally elevated total alkalinity of local seawater probably contributed to buffer the effects of increased pCO2 and reduced pH. Marine organisms may, therefore, show diverse responses to ocean acidification at local scales, particularly in coastal, estuarine and transitional waters, where the physical-chemical characteristics of seawater are most variable. Mortality was significantly reduced in the acidified treatments. This trend was probably related to the occurrence of spontaneous spawning events in the control and intermediate acidification treatments. Spawning, which was unexpected due to the small size of the clams, was not observed for the pH -0.7 treatment, suggesting that the increased survival under acidified conditions may have been associated with a delay in the reproductive cycle of the clams. Future research about the impacts of ocean acidification on marine biodiversity should be extended to other types of biological and ecological processes, apart from biological calcification.

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Reproduction in many organisms can be disrupted by changes to the physical environment, such as those predicted to occur during climate change. Marine organisms face the dual climate change threats of increasing temperature and ocean acidification, yet no studies have examined the potential interactive effects of these stressors on reproduction in marine fishes. We used a long-term experiment to test the interactive effects of increased temperature and CO2 on the reproductive performance of the anemonefish, Amphiprion melanopus. Adult breeding pairs were kept for 10 months at three temperatures, 28.5°C (+0.0°C), 30.0°C (+1.5°C) and 31.5°C (+3.0°C), cross-factored with 3 CO2 levels, a current day control (417 µatm) and moderate (644 µatm) and high (1134 µatm) treatments consistent with the range of CO2 projections for the year 2100 under RCP8.5. We recorded each egg clutch produced during the breeding season, the number of eggs laid per clutch, average egg size, fertilization success, survival to hatching, hatchling length and yolk provisioning. Adult body condition, hepatosomatic index, gonadosomatic index, and plasma 17beta-estradiol concentrations were measured at the end of the breeding season to determine the effect of prolonged exposure to increased temperature and elevated CO2 on adults, and to examine potential physiological mechanisms for changes in reproduction. Temperature had by far the stronger influence on reproduction, with clear declines in reproduction occurring in the +1.5°C treatment and ceasing altogether in the +3.0°C treatment. In contrast, CO2 had a minimal effect on the majority of reproductive traits measured, but caused a decline in offspring quality in combination with elevated temperature. We detected no significant effect of temperature or CO2 on adult body condition or hepatosomatic index. Elevated temperature had a significant negative effect on plasma 17beta-estradiol concentrations, suggesting that declines in reproduction with increasing temperature were due to the thermal sensitivity of reproductive hormones rather than a reduction in energy available for reproduction. Our results show that elevated temperature exerts a stronger influence than high CO2 on reproduction in A. melanopus. Understanding how these two environmental variables interact to affect the reproductive performance of marine organisms will be important for predicting the future impacts of climate change.

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In this study we investigate Pleistocene vegetation and climate change in southern East Africa by examining plant leaf waxes in a marine sediment core that receives terrestrial runoff from the Limpopo River. The plant leaf wax records are compared to a multi-proxy sea surface temperature (SST) record and pollen assemblage data from the same site. We find that Indian Ocean SST variability, driven by high-latitude obliquity, exerted a strong control on the vegetation of southern East Africa during the past 800,000 yr. Interglacial periods were characterized by relatively wetter and warmer conditions, increased contributions of C3 vegetation, and higher SST, whereas glacial periods were marked by cooler and arid conditions, increased contributions of C4 vegetation, and lower SST. We find that Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 5e, 11c, 15e and 7a-7c are strongly expressed in the plant leaf wax records but MIS 7e is absent while MIS 9 is rather weak. Our plant leaf wax records also record the climate transition associated with the Mid-Brunhes Event (MBE) suggesting that the pre-MBE interval (430-800 ka) was characterized by higher inputs from grasses in comparison to relatively higher inputs from trees in the post-MBE interval (430 to 0 ka). Differences in vegetation and SST of southern East Africa between the pre- and post-MBE intervals appear to be related to shifts in the location of the Subtropical Front. Comparison with vegetation records from tropical East Africa indicates that the vegetation of southern East Africa, while exhibiting glacial-interglacial variability and notable differences between the pre- and post-MBE portions of the record, likely did not experience such dramatic extremes as occurred to the north at Lake Malawi.

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Transfer of organic carbon (OC) from the terrestrial to the oceanic carbon pool is largely driven by riverine and aeolian transport. Before transport, however, terrigenous organic matter can be retained in intermediate terrestrial reservoirs such as soils. Using compound-specific radiocarbon analysis of terrigenous biomarkers their average terrestrial residence time can be evaluated. Here we show compound-specific radiocarbon (14C) ages of terrigenous biomarkers and bulk 14C ages accompanied by geochemical proxy data from core top samples collected along transects in front of several river mouths in the Black Sea. 14C ages of long chain n-alkanes, long chain n-fatty acids and total organic carbon (TOC) are highest in front of the river mouths, correlating well with BIT (branched and isoprenoid tetraether) indices, which indicates contribution of pre-aged, soil-derived terrigenous organic matter. The radiocarbon ages decrease further offshore towards locations where organic matter is dominated by marine production and aeolian input potentially contributes terrigenous organic matter. Average terrestrial residence times of vascular plant biomarkers deduced from n-C29+31 alkanes and n-C28+30 fatty acids ages from stations directly in front of the river mouths range from 900 ± 70 years to 4400 ± 170 years. These average residence times correlate with size and topography in climatically similar catchments, whereas the climatic regime appears to control continental carbon turnover times in morphologically similar drainage areas of the Black Sea catchment. Along-transect data imply petrogenic contribution of n-C29+31 alkanes and input via different terrigenous biomarker transport modes, i.e., riverine and aeolian, resulting in aged biomarkers at offshore core locations. Because n-C29+31 alkanes show contributions from petrogenic sources, n-C28+30 fatty acids likely provide better estimates of average terrestrial residence times of vascular plant biomarkers. Moreover, sedimentary n-C28 and n-C30 fatty acids appear clearly much less influenced by autochthonous sources than n-C24 and n-C26 fatty acids as indicated by increasing radiocarbon ages with increasing chain-length and are, thus, more representative as vascular plant biomarkers.