(Table 2) Temporal changes in phenological observations between 1978 and 2007, northern Sweden

A 30-year series (1978-2007) of photographic records were analysed to determine changes in lake ice cover, local (low elevation) and montane (high elevation) snow cover and phenological stages of mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii) at the Abisko Scientific Research Station, Sweden. In most cases, the photographic-derived data showed no significant difference in phenophase score from manually observed field records from the same period, demonstrating the accuracy and potential of using weekly repeat photography as a quicker, cheaper and more adaptable tool to remotely study phenology in both biological and physical systems. Overall, increases in ambient temperatures coupled with decreases in winter ice and snow cover, and earlier occurrence of birch foliage, signal a reduction in the length of winter, a shift towards earlier springs and an increase in the length of available growing season in the Swedish sub-arctic.

Minimum, maximum and mean annual ground temperatures in permafrost around Abisko ANS between 2008-2009

Monitoring of permafrost has been ongoing since 1978 in the Abisko area, northernmost Sweden, when measurements of active layer thickness started. In 1980, boreholes were drilled in three mires in the area to record permafrost temperatures. Recordings were made twice per year, and the last data were obtained in 2002. During the International Polar Year (2007-2008), new boreholes were drilled within the 'Back to the Future' (BTF) and 'Thermal State of Permafrost' (TSP) projects that enabled year-round temperature monitoring. Mean annual ground temperatures (MAGT) in the mires are close to 0°C, ranging from -0.16 to -0.47°C at 5 m depth. Data from the boreholes show increasing ground temperatures in the upper and lower part by 0.4 to 1°C between 1980 and 2002. At one mire, permafrost thickness has decreased from 15 m in 1980 to ca. 9 m in 2009, with an accelerating thawing trend during the last decade.

Tree characteristics, biomass and vegetation cover near Abisko Research Station in 1997 and 2010

This study was conducted in the Swedish sub-Arctic, near Abisko, in order to assess the direction and scale of possible vegetation changes in the alpine-birch forest ecotone. We have re-surveyed shrub, tree and vegetation data at 549 plots grouped into 61 clusters. The plots were originally surveyed in 1997 and re-surveyed in 2010. Our study is unique for the area as we have quantitatively estimated a 19% increase in tree biomass mainly within the existing birch forest. We also found significant increases in the cover of two vegetation types - "birch forest-heath with mosses" and "meadow with low herbs", while the cover of snowbed vegetation decreased significantly. The vegetation changes might be caused by climate, herbivory and past human impact but irrespective of the causes, the observed transition of the vegetation will have substantial effects on the mountain ecosystems.

Berry size and seed number of V. myrtillus and E. hermaphroditum according to treatment, and environmental parameters 1991-2009 at Abisko Research Station

This study investigated the effects of long-term-enhanced UV-B, and combined UV-B with elevated CO2 on dwarf shrub berry characteristics in a sub-arctic heath community. Germination of Vaccinium myrtillus was enhanced in seeds produced at elevated UV-B, but seed numbers and berry size were unaffected. Elevated UV-B and CO2 stimulated the abundance of V. myrtillus berries, whilst UV-B alone stimulated the berry abundance of V. vitis-idaea and Empetrum hermaphroditum. Enhanced UV-B reduced concentrations of several polyphenolics in V. myrtillus berries, whilst elevated CO2 increased quercetin glycosides in V. myrtillus, and syringetin glycosides and anthocyanins in E. hermaphroditum berries. UV-B x CO2 interactions were found for total anthocyanins, delphinidin-3-hexoside and peonidin-3-pentosidein in V. myrtillus berries but not E. hermaphroditum. Results suggest positive impacts of UV-B on the germination of V. myrtillus and species-specific impacts of UV-B x elevated CO2 on berry abundance and quality. The findings have relevance and implications for human and animal consumers plus seed dispersal and seedling establishment.

(Table 1) Normalized difference vegetation index in control and warming plots, Abisco Research Station

Extreme winter warming events in the sub-Arctic have caused considerable vegetation damage due to rapid changes in temperature and loss of snow cover. The frequency of extreme weather is expected to increase due to climate change thereby increasing the potential for recurring vegetation damage in Arctic regions. Here we present data on vegetation recovery from one such natural event and multiple experimental simulations in the sub-Arctic using remote sensing, handheld passive proximal sensors and ground surveys. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recovered fast (2 years), from the 26% decline following one natural extreme winter warming event. Recovery was associated with declines in dead Empetrum nigrum (dominant dwarf shrub) from ground surveys. However, E. nigrum healthy leaf NDVI was also reduced (16%) following this winter warming event in experimental plots (both control and treatments), suggesting that non-obvious plant damage (i.e., physiological stress) had occurred in addition to the dead E. nigrum shoots that was considered responsible for the regional 26% NDVI decline. Plot and leaf level NDVI provided useful additional information that could not be obtained from vegetation surveys and regional remote sensing (MODIS) alone. The major damage of an extreme winter warming event appears to be relatively transitory. However, potential knock-on effects on higher trophic levels (e.g., rodents, reindeer, and bear) could be unpredictable and large. Repeated warming events year after year, which can be expected under winter climate warming, could result in damage that may take much longer to recover.

(Table 3) Collembola species density and diversity in control and OTC plots near Abisco Research Station

Ecosystems at high northern latitudes are subject to strong climate change. Soil processes, such as carbon and nutrient cycles, which determine the functioning of these ecosystems, are controlled by soil fauna. Thus assessing the responses of soil fauna communities to environmental change will improve the predictability of the climate change impacts on ecosystem functioning. For this purpose, trait assessment is a promising method compared to the traditional taxonomic approach, but it has not been applied earlier. In this study the response of a sub-arctic soil Collembola community to long-term (16 years) climate manipulation by open top chambers was assessed. The drought-susceptible Collembola community responded strongly to the climate manipulation, which substantially reduced soil moisture and slightly increased soil temperature. The total density of Collembola decreased by 51% and the average number of species was reduced from 14 to 12. Although community assessment showed species-specific responses, taxonomically based community indices, species diversity and evenness, were not affected. However, morphological and ecological trait assessments were more sensitive in revealing community responses. Drought-tolerant, larger-sized, epiedaphic species survived better under the climate manipulation than their counterparts, the meso-hydrophilic, smaller-sized and euedaphic species. Moreover it also explained the significant responses shown by four taxa. This study shows that trait analysis can both reveal responses in a soil fauna community to climate change and improve the understanding of the mechanisms behind them.

Soil characteristics and Collembola and Acari abundance in control and warming plots at Abisco Research Station

Extreme weather events can have negative impacts on species survival and community structure when surpassing lethal thresholds. Extreme winter warming events in the Arctic rapidly melt snow and expose ecosystems to unseasonably warm air (2-10 °C for 2-14 days), but returning to cold winter climate exposes the ecosystem to lower temperatures by the loss of insulating snow. Soil animals, which play an integral part in soil processes, may be very susceptible to such events depending on the intensity of soil warming and low temperatures following these events. We simulated week-long extreme winter warming events - using infrared heating lamps, alone or with soil warming cables - for two consecutive years in a sub-Arctic dwarf shrub heathland. Minimum temperatures were lower and freeze-thaw cycles were 2-11 times more frequent in treatment plots compared with control plots. Following the second event, Acari populations decreased by 39%; primarily driven by declines of Prostigmata (69%) and the Mesostigmatic nymphs (74%). A community-weighted vertical stratification shift occurred from smaller soil dwelling (eu-edaphic) Collembola species dominance to larger litter dwelling (hemi-edaphic) species dominance in the canopy-with-soil warming plots compared with controls. The most susceptible groups to these winter warming events were the smallest individuals (Prostigmata and eu-edaphic Collembola). This was not apparent from abundance data at the Collembola taxon level, indicating that life forms and species traits play a major role in community assembly following extreme events. The observed shift in soil community can cascade down to the micro-flora affecting plant productivity and mineralization rates. Short-term extreme weather events have the potential to shift community composition through trait composition with potentially large consequences for ecosystem development.