Geochemistry of last glacial sediments of Isla de los Estados, southeastern Tierra del Fuego

The island of Isla de los Estados is situated at 54.5°S, 64°W, east of Argentinian Tierra del Fuego, and is located in a sensitive geographic position in relation to the zonal circulation between Antarctica and South America. Its terrestrial records of the last deglaciation, recording atmospheric conditions but within an oceanic setting, can help to clarify changes of regional circulation patterns, both atmospheric and marine. Here, we present geochemical analyses from 16-10 ka cal BP of a peat core from Lago Galvarne Bog at the northern coast of the island, and a lake sediment core from Laguna Cascada 3 km further south. The data comprise TC, TN, loss on ignition analyses and continuous XRF scanning on both cores as well as age-depth modeling based on AMS-14C dating. Deglaciation and onset of peat formation in the coastal areas began before 16 ka cal BP followed by a rapid glacial retreat and the start of lacustrine sedimentation further inland. Data suggest initially windy conditions with permafrost succeeded by gradually warmer and wetter conditions until ca 14.5 ka cal BP. The warming trend slows down until ca 13.5 ka cal BP, followed by arid conditions culminating around 12.8 ka cal BP. Our data suggest fairly warm conditions and the establishment of denser peat and forest vegetation ca 10.6 ka cal BP, contemporaneous with the onset of the Antarctic thermal optimum. This indicates large-scale shifts in the placement of zonal flow and the Westerlies at the beginning of the Holocene.

Decision evaluation in complex risk network systems (DecernsSDSS) demo and Black River case study

The selection of metrics for ecosystem restoration programs is critical for improving the quality of monitoring programs and characterizing project success. Moreover it is oftentimes very difficult to balance the importance of multiple ecological, social, and economical metrics. Metric selection process is a complex and must simultaneously take into account monitoring data, environmental models, socio-economic considerations, and stakeholder interests. We propose multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods, broadly defined, for the selection of optimal sets of metrics to enhance evaluation of ecosystem restoration alternatives. Two MCDA methods, a multiattribute utility analysis (MAUT), and a probabilistic multicriteria acceptability analysis (ProMAA), are applied and compared for a hypothetical case study of a river restoration involving multiple stakeholders. Overall, the MCDA results in a systematic, unbiased, and transparent solution, informing restoration alternatives evaluation. The two methods provide comparable results in terms of selected metrics. However, because ProMAA can consider probability distributions for weights and utility values of metrics for each criteria, it is suggested as the best option if data uncertainty is high. Despite the increase in complexity in the metric selection process, MCDA improves upon the current ad-hoc decision practice based on the consultations with stakeholders and experts, and encourages transparent and quantitative aggregation of data and judgement, increasing the transparency of decision making in restoration projects. We believe that MCDA can enhance the overall sustainability of ecosystem by enhancing both ecological and societal needs.