Model-based changes in global annual mean surface temperature change (Delta T_g) and radiative forcing due to land ice albedo changes (Delta R_[LI]) over the last 5 Myr, supplementary material

It is still an open question how equilibrium warming in response to increasing radiative forcing - the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S - depends on background climate. We here present palaeodata-based evidence on the state dependency of S, by using CO2 proxy data together with a 3-D ice-sheet-model-based reconstruction of land ice albedo over the last 5 million years (Myr). We find that the land ice albedo forcing depends non-linearly on the background climate, while any non-linearity of CO2 radiative forcing depends on the CO2 data set used. This non-linearity has not, so far, been accounted for in similar approaches due to previously more simplistic approximations, in which land ice albedo radiative forcing was a linear function of sea level change. The latitudinal dependency of ice-sheet area changes is important for the non-linearity between land ice albedo and sea level. In our set-up, in which the radiative forcing of CO2 and of the land ice albedo (LI) is combined, we find a state dependence in the calculated specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], for most of the Pleistocene (last 2.1 Myr). During Pleistocene intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods, S[CO2,LI] is on average ~ 45 % larger than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. In the Pliocene part of our analysis (2.6-5 Myr BP) the CO2 data uncertainties prevent a well-supported calculation for S[CO2,LI], but our analysis suggests that during times without a large land ice area in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. before 2.82 Myr BP), the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene. We thus find support for a previously proposed state change in the climate system with the widespread appearance of northern hemispheric ice sheets. This study points for the first time to a so far overlooked non-linearity in the land ice albedo radiative forcing, which is important for similar palaeodata-based approaches to calculate climate sensitivity. However, the implications of this study for a suggested warming under CO2 doubling are not yet entirely clear since the details of necessary corrections for other slow feedbacks are not fully known and the uncertainties that exist in the ice-sheet simulations and global temperature reconstructions are large.

Age determination of ODP Hole 145-887

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were significantly lower during glacial periods than during intervening interglacial periods, but the mechanisms responsible for this difference remain uncertain. Many recent explanations call on greater carbon storage in a poorly ventilated deep ocean during glacial periods (Trancois et al., 1997, doi:10.1038/40073; Toggweiler, 1999, doi:10.1029/1999PA900033; Stephens and Keeling, 2000, doi:10.1038/35004556; Marchitto et al., 2007, doi:10.1126/science.1138679; Sigman and Boyle, 2000, doi:10.1038/35038000), but direct evidence regarding the ventilation and respired carbon content of the glacial deep ocean is sparse and often equivocal (Broecker et al., 2004, doi:10.1126/science.1102293). Here we present sedimentary geochemical records from sites spanning the deep subarctic Pacific that -together with previously published results (Keigwin, 1998, doi:10.1029/98PA00874)- show that a poorly ventilated water mass containing a high concentration of respired carbon dioxide occupied the North Pacific abyss during the Last Glacial Maximum. Despite an inferred increase in deep Southern Ocean ventilation during the first step of the deglaciation (18,000-15,000 years ago) (Marchitto et al., 2007, doi:10.1126/science.1138679; Monnin et al., 2001, doi:10.1126/science.291.5501.112), we find no evidence for improved ventilation in the abyssal subarctic Pacific until a rapid transition ~14,600 years ago: this change was accompanied by an acceleration of export production from the surface waters above but only a small increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (Monnin et al., 2001, doi:10.1126/science.291.5501.112). We speculate that these changes were mechanistically linked to a roughly coeval increase in deep water formation in the North Atlantic (Robinson et al., 2005, doi:10.1126/science.1114832; Skinner nd Shackleton, 2004, doi:10.1029/2003PA000983; McManus et al., 2004, doi:10.1038/nature02494), which flushed respired carbon dioxide from northern abyssal waters, but also increased the supply of nutrients to the upper ocean, leading to greater carbon dioxide sequestration at mid-depths and stalling the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Our findings are qualitatively consistent with hypotheses invoking a deglacial flushing of respired carbon dioxide from an isolated, deep ocean reservoir periods (Trancois et al., 1997, doi:10.1038/40073; Toggweiler, 1999, doi:10.1029/1999PA900033; Stephens and Keeling, 2000, doi:10.1038/35004556; Marchitto et al., 2007, doi:10.1126/science.1138679; Sigman and Boyle, 2000, doi:10.1038/35038000; Boyle, 1988, doi:10.1038/331055a0), but suggest that the reservoir may have been released in stages, as vigorous deep water ventilation switched between North Atlantic and Southern Ocean source regions.