Ensemble prediction distribution maps of macroalgae for current conditions and four climate change scenarios and high resultion bathymetry for Potter Cove, WAP, Antarctica

Species distribution models (SDM) predict species occurrence based on statistical relationships with environmental conditions. The R-package biomod2 which includes 10 different SDM techniques and 10 different evaluation methods was used in this study. Macroalgae are the main biomass producers in Potter Cove, King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), Antarctica, and they are sensitive to climate change factors such as suspended particulate matter (SPM). Macroalgae presence and absence data were used to test SDMs suitability and, simultaneously, to assess the environmental response of macroalgae as well as to model four scenarios of distribution shifts by varying SPM conditions due to climate change. According to the averaged evaluation scores of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and True scale statistics (TSS) by models, those methods based on a multitude of decision trees such as Random Forest and Classification Tree Analysis, reached the highest predictive power followed by generalized boosted models (GBM) and maximum-entropy approaches (Maxent). The final ensemble model used 135 of 200 calculated models (TSS > 0.7) and identified hard substrate and SPM as the most influencing parameters followed by distance to glacier, total organic carbon (TOC), bathymetry and slope. The climate change scenarios show an invasive reaction of the macroalgae in case of less SPM and a retreat of the macroalgae in case of higher assumed SPM values.

Fresh biomass of macroalgae collected at Hansneset, Kongsfjorden, Spitsbergen in 1996/1998

We surveyed macroalgae at Hansneset, Blomstrand in Kongsfjorden, Svalbard, down to 30 m depth between 1996 and 1998. In total, 62 species were identified: 16 Chlorophyta, 25 Phaeophyceae, and 21 Rhodophyta. The majority of species (53.5%) belonged to the Arctic cold-temperate group, followed in frequency by species distributed from the Arctic to the warm-temperate region (25.9%). Four endemic Arctic species (Laminaria solidungula, Acrosiphonia flagellata, A. incurva, and Urospora elongata) were found. Two species (Pogotrichum filiforme and Mikrosyphar polysiphoniae) were new to Svalbard. Chlorophyta, Phaeophyceae, and Rhodophyta extended from the eulittoral zone down to 11, 21, and >30 m depths with maximum biomasses at 1-5 m, 5-10 m, and 5-30 m depths, respectively. Annual and pseudoperennial species had highest biomasses in the upper 5 m, while perennials were distributed deeper. The highest biomass (8600 g/m**2 wet weight) at 5 m depth comprised mainly L. digitata, Saccorhiza dermatodea, Alaria esculenta, and Saccharina latissima. The biogeographic composition of macroalgae at Hansneset was rather similar to that of northeastern Greenland, but different from that of northern Norway, which has a higher proportion of temperate species. Climate warming and ship traffic may extend some of the distribution ranges of macroalgae from mainland Norway to Svalbard.