Standardized rainfall indices for the West and Central Sahel, and the Guinea Coast

For years, various indices of seasonal West African precipitation have served as useful predictors of the overall tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Since the mid-1990s, the correlation unexpectedly deteriorated. In the present study, statistical techniques are developed to describe the nonstationary nature of the correlations between annual measures of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and three selected West African precipitation indices (namely, western Sahelian precipitation in June-September, central Sahelian precipitation in June-September, and Guinean coastal precipitation in the preceding year's August-November period). The correlations between these parameters are found to vary over the period from 1921 to 2007 on a range of time scales. Additionally, considerable year-to-year variability in the strength of these correlations is documented by selecting subsamples of years with respect to various meteorological factors. Broadly, in years when the environment in the main development region is generally favorable for enhanced tropical cyclogenesis (e.g., when sea surface temperatures are high, when there is relatively little wind shear through the depth of the troposphere, or when the relative vorticity in the midtroposphere is anomalously high), the correlations between indices of West African monsoon precipitation and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity are considerably weaker than in years when the overall conditions in the region are less conducive. Other more remote climate parameters, such as the phase of the Southern Oscillation, are less effective at modulating the nature of these interactions.

Web-based Biodiversity Citizen Science Database (assembled 2012)

The collective impact of humans on biodiversity rivals mass extinction events defining Earth's history, but does our large population also present opportunities to document and contend with this crisis? We provide the first quantitative review of biodiversity-related citizen science to determine whether data collected by these projects can be, and are currently being, effectively used in biodiversity research. We find strong evidence of the potential of citizen science: within projects we sampled (n = 388), ~1.3 million volunteers participate, contributing up to US Dollar 2.5 billion in-kind annually. These projects exceed most federally-funded studies in spatial and temporal extent, and collectively they sample a breadth of taxonomic diversity. However, only 12% of the 388 projects surveyed obviously provide data to peer-reviewed scientific articles, despite the fact that a third of these projects have verifiable, standardized data that are accessible online. Factors influencing publication included project spatial scale and longevity and having publically available data, as well as one measure of scientific rigor (taxonomic identification training). Because of the low rate at which citizen science data reach publication, the large and growing citizen science movement is likely only realizing a small portion of its potential impact on the scientific research community. Strengthening connections between professional and non-professional participants in the scientific process will enable this large data resource to be better harnessed to understand and address global change impacts on biodiversity.

Age models for sediment cores in the eastern tropical Pacific

We present new high-resolution N isotope records from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the Nicaragua Basin spanning the last 50-70 ka. The Tehuantepec site is situated within the core of the north subtropical denitrification zone while the Nicaragua site is at the southern boundary. The d15N record from Nicaragua shows an 'Antarctic' timing similar to denitrification changes observed off Peru-Chile but is radically different from the northern records. We attribute this to the leakage of isotopically heavy nitrate from the South Pacific oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) into the Nicaragua Basin. The Nicaragua record leads the other eastern tropical North Pacific (ETNP) records by about 1000 years because denitrification peaks in the eastern tropical South Pacific (ETSP) before denitrification starts to increase in the Northern Hemisphere OMZ, i.e., during warming episodes in Antarctica. We find that the influence of the heavy nitrate leakage from the ETSP is still noticeable, although attenuated, in the Gulf of Tehuantepec record, particularly at the end of the Heinrich events, and tends to alter the recording of millennial timescale denitrification changes in the ETNP. This implies (1) that sedimentary d15N records from the southern parts of the ETNP cannot be used straightforwardly as a proxy for local denitrification and (2) that denitrification history in the ETNP, like in the Arabian Sea, is synchronous with Greenland temperature changes. These observations reinforce the conclusion that on millennial timescales during the last ice age, denitrification in the ETNP is strongly influenced by climatic variations that originated in the high-latitude North Atlantic region, while commensurate changes in Southern Ocean hydrography more directly, and slightly earlier, affected oxygen concentrations in the ETSP. Furthermore, the d15N records imply ongoing physical communication across the equator in the shallow subsurface continuously over the last 50-70 ka.

Berry production, shoot growth and biomass of E. hermaphroditum, V. vitis-idaea and V. myrtillis at Abisco ANS

Extreme weather events can have strong negative impacts on species survival and community structure when surpassing lethal thresholds. Extreme, short-lived, winter warming events in the Arctic rapidly melt snow and expose ecosystems to unseasonably warm air (for instance, 2-10 °C for 2-14 days) but upon return to normal winter climate exposes the ecosystem to much colder temperatures due to the loss of insulating snow. Single events have been shown to reduce plant reproduction and increase shoot mortality, but impacts of multiple events are little understood as are the broader impacts on community structure, growth, carbon balance, and nutrient cycling. To address these issues, we simulated week-long extreme winter warming events - using infrared heating lamps and soil warming cables - for 3 consecutive years in a sub-Arctic heathland dominated by the dwarf shrubs Empetrum hermaphroditum, Vaccinium vitis-idaea (both evergreen) and Vaccinium myrtillus (deciduous). During the growing seasons after the second and third winter event, spring bud burst was delayed by up to a week for E. hermaphroditum and V. myrtillus, and berry production reduced by 11-75% and 52-95% for E. hermaphroditum and V. myrtillus, respectively. Greater shoot mortality occurred in E. hermaphroditum (up to 52%), V. vitis-idaea (51%), and V. myrtillus (80%). Root growth was reduced by more than 25% but soil nutrient availability remained unaffected. Gross primary productivity was reduced by more than 50% in the summer following the third simulation. Overall, the extent of damage was considerable, and critically plant responses were opposite in direction to the increased growth seen in long-term summer warming simulations and the 'greening' seen for some arctic regions. Given the Arctic is warming more in winter than summer, and extreme events are predicted to become more frequent, this generates large uncertainty in our current understanding of arctic ecosystem responses to climate change.

Magnetic susceptibility of deep-sea cores from the Scotia Sea

We studied two deep-sea cores from the Scotia Sea to reconstruct past atmospheric circulation in the southern hemisphere and to resolve a long-standing debate on the interpretation of magnetic susceptibility (MS) records in Southern Ocean (SO) sediment. High-sedimentation sites MD07-3134 (0.2 - 1.2 m/kyr) and MD07-3133 (0.3 - 2 m/kyr) cover the last 92.5 kyr and 36 kyr, respectively. Both exhibit a one-to-one coupling of the MS and Ca2+ signal to the non-sea salt (nss) Ca2+ signal of the EDML ice core, clearly identifying atmospheric circulation as means of distribution. Comparison of additional proxies also excludes major influence by volcanic sources, sea-ice, icebergs, or oceanic current transport. The close resemblance of the dust proxies over the last glacial cycle, in turn, allows for the establishment of an age model of unprecedented resolution and precision for SO deep-sea sediment because atmospheric transport involves no major leads or lags. This is of particular importance because MS is routinely measured on deep-sea cores in the SO but the sediments usually lack biogenic carbonate and therefore had only limited stratigraphic control so far. Southern South America (SSA) is the likely source of eolian material because Site MD07-3133, located closer to the continent, has slightly higher MS values than Site MD07-3134, and also the MS record of Patagonian Site SALSA shows comparable variability. Patagonia was the dust source for both the Scotia Sea and East Antarctica. Dust fluxes were several times higher during glacial times, when atmospheric circulation was either stronger or shifted in latitude, sea level was lowered, shelf surfaces were exposed, and environmental conditions in SSA were dominated by glaciers and extended outwash plains. Hence, MS records of SO deep-sea sediment are reliable tracers of atmospheric circulation, allowing for chronologically-constrained reconstructions of the circum Antarctic paleoclimate history.

Species occurrence and richness of lichen, bryophytes and vascular plants near Abisko, Sweden and Toolik lake, Alaska

Little is known about the impact of changing temperature regimes on composition and diversity of cryptogam communities in the Arctic and Subarctic, despite the well-known importance of lichens and bryophytes to the functioning and climate feedbacks of northern ecosystems. We investigated changes in diversity and abundance of lichens and bryophytes within long-term (9-16 years) warming experiments and along natural climatic gradients, ranging from Swedish subarctic birch forest and subarctic/subalpine tundra to Alaskan arctic tussock tundra. In both Sweden and Alaska, lichen diversity responded negatively to experimental warming (with the exception of a birch forest) and to higher temperatures along climatic gradients. Bryophytes were less sensitive to experimental warming than lichens, but depending on the length of the gradient, bryophyte diversity decreased both with increasing temperatures and at extremely low temperatures. Among bryophytes, Sphagnum mosses were particularly resistant to experimental warming in terms of both abundance and diversity. Temperature, on both continents, was the main driver of species composition within experiments and along gradients, with the exception of the Swedish subarctic birch forest where amount of litter constituted the best explanatory variable. In a warming experiment in moist acidic tussock tundra in Alaska, temperature together with soil ammonium availability were the most important factors influencing species composition. Overall, dwarf shrub abundance (deciduous and evergreen) was positively related to warming but so were the bryophytes Sphagnum girgensohnii, Hylocomium splendens and Pleurozium schreberi; the majority of other cryptogams showed a negative relationship to warming. This unique combination of intercontinental comparison, natural gradient studies and experimental studies shows that cryptogam diversity and abundance, especially within lichens, is likely to decrease under arctic climate warming. Given the many ecosystem processes affected by cryptogams in high latitudes (e.g. carbon sequestration, N2-fixation, trophic interactions), these changes will have important feedback consequences for ecosystem functions and climate.

(Supplemental Table 2) Plant characteristics, GHG fluxes, and soil chemical and microbial properties in experimental treatments in Alexandra Fiord

We evaluated above- and belowground ecosystem changes in a 16 year, combined fertilization and warming experiment in a High Arctic tundra deciduous shrub heath (Alexandra Fiord, Ellesmere Island, NU, Canada). Soil emissions of the three key greenhouse gases (GHGs) (carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide) were measured in mid-July 2009 using soil respiration chambers attached to a FTIR system. Soil chemical and biochemical properties including Q10 values for CO2, CH4, and N2O, Bacteria and Archaea assemblage composition, and the diversity and prevalence of key nitrogen cycling genes including bacterial amoA, crenarchaeal amoA, and nosZ were measured. Warming and fertilization caused strong increases in plant community cover and height but had limited effects on GHG fluxes and no substantial effect on soil chemistry or biochemistry. Similarly, there was a surprising lack of directional shifts in the soil microbial community as a whole or any change at all in microbial functional groups associated with CH4 consumption or N2O cycling in any treatment. Thus, it appears that while warming and increased nutrient availability have strongly affected the plant community over the last 16 years, the belowground ecosystem has not yet responded. This resistance of the soil ecosystem has resulted in limited changes in GHG fluxes in response to the experimental treatments.