Climate forecast data (Nino3.4 SST, Arctic sea ice extent) and observational references, link to files in Rdata format

This data set contains seasonal forecasts of sea surface temperature and Arctic sea ice extent from state-of-the-art climate models, along with observational references used to evaluate those forecasts. Common skill scores like the correlation between modelled and observed time series are also reported.

Stable isotope, UK'37, SST, chlorin, alkenone and TOC data of sediment cores GIK17927-2 and GIK17928-3

Upwelling intensity in the South China Sea has changed over glacial-interglacial cycles in response to orbital-scale changes in the East Asian Monsoon. Here, we evaluate new multi-proxy records of two sediment cores from the north-eastern South China Sea to uncover millennial-scale changes in winter monsoondriven upwelling over glacial Terminations I and II. On the basis of U/Th-based speleothem chronology, we compare these changes with sediment records of summer monsoondriven upwelling east of South Vietnam. Ocean upwelling is traced by reduced (UK'37-based) temperature and increased nutrient and productivity estimates of sea surface water (d13C on planktic foraminifera, accumulation rates of alkenones, chlorins, and total organic carbon). Accordingly, strong winter upwelling occurred north-west of Luzon (Philippines) during late Marine Isotope Stage 6.2, Heinrich (HS) and Greenland stadials (GS) HS-11, GS-26, GS-25, HS-1, and the Younger Dryas. During these stadials, summer upwelling decreased off South Vietnam and sea surface salinity reached a maximum suggesting a drop in monsoon rains, concurrent with speleothem records of aridity in China. In harmony with a stadial-to-interstadial see-saw pattern, winter upwelling off Luzon in turn was weak during interstadials, in particular those of glacial Terminations I and II, when summer upwelling culminated east of South Vietnam. Most likely, this upwelling terminated widespread deep-water stratification, coeval with the deglacial rise in atmospheric CO2. Yet, a synchronous maximum in precipitation fostered estuarine overturning circulation in the South China Sea, in particular as long as the Borneo Strait was closed when sea level dropped below -40 m.

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Mg/Ca record for the surface-dwelling planktonic foraminifera Globigerina bulloides

We generated a high-resolution SSTMg/Ca record for the surface-dwelling planktonic foraminifera Globigerina bulloides from the core MD99-2346 collected in the Gulf of Lion, and compared it to that obtained using modern analogue techniques applied to fossil foraminiferal assemblages (SSTMAT). The two temperature records display similar patterns during the last 28,000 years but the SSTMg/Ca estimates are several degrees warmer (~+4 °C) than SSTMAT. The temperature shift between SSTMg/Ca and SSTMAT remained relatively constant over time. This seems to exclude a bias on the Mg/Ca record associated with salinity or secondary Mg-rich calcite encrustation on the foraminiferal tests during early diagenesis. Therefore, anomalously high Mg/Ca suggests either: (1) the empirical equation for G. bulloides of Elderfield and Ganssen (2000) is incorrect; or (2) there is a specific Mediterranean genotypes of G. bulloides for which a specific Mg/Ca-temperature calibration is needed.

Ogranic geochemistry and SST reconstruction for Pliocene and Miocene Madeira Abyssal Plain turbidites

Free and "bound" long-chain alkenones (C37?2 and C37?3) in oxidized and unoxidized sections of four organic matter-rich Pliocene and Miocene Madeira Abyssal Plain turbidites (one from Ocean Drilling Program site 951B and three from site 952A) were analyzed to determine the effect of severe post depositional oxidation on the value of Uk'37. The profiles of both alkenones across the redox boundary show a preferential degradation of the C37?3 compared to the C37?2 compound. Because of the high initial Uk'37 values and the way of calculating the Uk'37 this degradation hardly influences the Uk'37 profiles. However, for lower Uk'37 values, measured selective degradation would increase Uk'37 up to 0.17 units, equivalent to 5°C. For most of the Uk'37 band-width, much smaller degradation already increases Uk'37 beyond the analytical error (0.017 units). Consequently, for interpreting the Uk'37 record in terms of past sea surface temperatures, selective degradation needs serious consideration.

(Table T1) Carbon contents, alkenone concentrations, alkenone unsaturation index, and SST in sediments of ODP Leg 190 sites

We have preliminarily generated the downcore records of total organic carbon (TOC) content, total alkenone concentration, alkenone unsaturation index, and the estimated sea-surface temperature (SST) in the northern three sites (Sites 1175, 1176, and 1178) of the Muroto Transect, Nankai Trough. The TOC content will be used for the evaluation of the burial of organic matter, which plays a role in the generation of natural gas and the formation of gas hydrate in this region. The downcore records of alkenone SST will benefit studies for the paleoceanography of the northwestern Pacific. Because those sites are located in the main path of the Kuroshio Current, the records provide the temperature change of the Kuroshio water, which is an end-member water mass in the northwestern Pacific.

Planktic foraminifera abundances and winter SST reconstruction for sediment core SO90-39KG

The Indian winter monsoon (IWM) is a key component of the seasonally changing monsoon system that affects the densely populated regions of South Asia. Cold winds originating in high northern latitudes provide a link of continental-scale Northern Hemisphere climate to the tropics. Western Disturbances (WD) associated with the IWM play a critical role for the climate and hydrology in northern India and the western Himalaya region. It is vital to understand the mechanisms and teleconnections that influence IWM variability to better predict changes in future climate. Here we present a study of regionally calibrated winter (January) temperatures and according IWM intensities, based on a planktic foraminiferal record with biennial (2.55 years) resolution. Over the last ~250 years, IWM intensities gradually weakened, based on the long-term trend of reconstructed January temperatures. Furthermore, the results indicate that IWM is connected on interannual- to decadal time scales to climate variability of the tropical and extratropical Pacific, via El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, our findings suggest that this relationship appeared to begin to decouple since the beginning of the 20th century. Cross-spectral analysis revealed that several distinct decadal-scale phases of colder climate and accordingly more intense winter monsoon centered at the years ~1800, ~1890 and ~1930 can be linked to changes of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

(Table S2) The reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST) over the eastern equatorial Pacific

Abundant hydroclimatic evidence from western Amazonia and the adjacent Andes documents wet conditions during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1, 18-15 ka), a cold period in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic. This precipitation anomaly was attributed to a strengthening of the South American summer monsoon due to a change in the Atlantic interhemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. However, the physical viability of this mechanism has never been rigorously tested. We address this issue by combining a thorough compilation of tropical South American paleorecords and a set of atmosphere model sensitivity experiments. Our results show that the Atlantic SST variations alone, although leading to dry conditions in northern South America and wet conditions in northeastern Brazil, cannot produce increased precipitation over western Amazonia and the adjacent Andes during HS1. Instead, an eastern equatorial Pacific SST increase (i.e., 0.5-1.5 °C), in response to the slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during HS1, is crucial to generate the wet conditions in these regions. The mechanism works via anomalous low sea level pressure over the eastern equatorial Pacific, which promotes a regional easterly low-level wind anomaly and moisture recycling from central Amazonia towards the Andes.

Geochemical and palynological results of IODP Hole 302-M0004A from Lomonosov Ridge, Arctic Ocean

Several episodes of abrupt and transient warming, each lasting between 50,000 and 200,000 years, punctuated the long-term warming during the Late Palaeocene and Early Eocene (58 to 51 Myr ago) epochs**1,2. These hyperthermal events, such as the Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2) that took place about 53.5 Myr ago**2, are associated with rapid increases in atmospheric CO2 content. However, the impacts of most events are documented only locally**3,4. Here we show, on the basis of estimates from the TEX86' proxy, that sea surface temperatures rose by 3-5 °C in the Arctic Ocean during the ETM2. Dinoflagellate fossils demonstrate a concomitant freshening and eutrophication of surface waters, which resulted in euxinia in the photic zone. The presence of palm pollen implies**5 that coldest month mean temperatures over the Arctic land masses were no less than 8 °C, in contradiction of model simulations that suggest hyperthermal winter temperatures were below freezing**6. In light of our reconstructed temperature and hydrologic trends, we conclude that the temperature and hydrographic responses to abruptly increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations were similar for the ETM2 and the better-described Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum**7,8, 55.5 Myr ago.