Fig. S1. Loci of possible event locations based on differential ts - tp arrival times at the single functioning geophone

Geological storage of CO2 that has been captured at large, point source emitters represents a key potential method for reduction of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. However, this technology will only be viable if it can be guaranteed that injected CO2 will remain trapped in the subsurface for thousands of years or more. A signi?cant issue for storage security is the geomechanical response of the reservoir. Concerns have been raised that geomechanical deformation induced by CO2 injection will create or reactivate fracture networks in the sealing caprocks, providing a pathway for CO2 leakage. In this paper, we examine three large-scale sites where CO2 is injected at rates of ab. 1 megatonne/y or more: Sleipner, Weyburn, and In Salah. We compare and contrast the observed geomechanical behavior of each site, with particular focus on the risks to storage security posed by geomechanical deformation. At Sleipner, the large, high-permeability storage aquifer has experienced little pore pressure increase over 15 y of injection, implying little possibility of geomechanical deformation. At Weyburn, 45 y of oil production has depleted pore pressures before increases associated with CO2 injection. The long history of the ?eld has led to complicated, sometimes nonintuitive geomechanical deformation. At In Salah, injection into the water leg of a gas reservoir has increased pore pressures, leading to uplift and substantial microseismic activity. The differences in the geomechanical responses of these sites emphasize the need for systematic geomechanical appraisal before injection in any potential storage site.

Photochemical responses of the diatom Skeletonema costatum grown under elevated CO2 concentrations to short-term changes in pH

Variability in pH is a common occurrence in many aquatic environments, due to physical, chemical and biological processes. In coastal waters, lagoons, estuaries and inland waters, pH can change very rapidly (within seconds or hours) in addition to daily and seasonal changes. At the same time, progressive ocean acidification caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions is superimposed on these spatial and temporal pH changes. Photosynthetic organisms are therefore unavoidably subject to significant pH variations at the cell surface. Whether this will affect their response to long-term ocean acidification is still unknown, nor is it known whether the short-term sensitivity to pH change is affected by the pCO2 to which the cells are acclimated. We posed the latter open question as our experimental hypothesis: Does acclimation to seawater acidification affect the response of phytoplankton to acute pH variations? The diatom Skeletonema costatum, commonly found in coastal and estuarine waters where short-term acute changes in pH frequently occur, was selected to test the hypothesis. Diatoms were grown at both 390 (pH 8.2, low CO2; LC) and 1000 (pH 7.9, high CO2; HC) µatm CO2 for at least 20 generations, and photosynthetic responses to short-term and acute changes in pH (between 8.2 and 7.6) were investigated. The effective quantum yield of LC-grown cells decreased by ca. 70% only when exposed to pH 7.6; this was not observed when exposed to pH 7.9 or 8.2. HC-grown cells did not show significant responses in any pH treatment. Non-photochemical quenching showed opposite trends. In general, our results indicate that while LC-grown cells are rather sensitive to acidification, HC-grown cells are relatively unresponsive in terms of photochemical performance.

Iberian Margin 420 kyr geochemical and color variations record

Here we report 420 kyr long records of sediment geochemical and color variations from the southwestern Iberian Margin. We synchronized the Iberian Margin sediment record to Antarctic ice cores and speleothem records on millennial time scales and investigated the phase responses relative to orbital forcing of multiple proxy records available from these cores. Iberian Margin sediments contain strong precession power. Sediment "redness" (a* and 570-560 nm) and the ratio of long-chain alcohols to n-alkanes (C26OH/(C26OH + C29)) are highly coherent and in-phase with precession. Redder layers and more oxidizing conditions (low alcohol ratio) occur near precession minima (summer insolation maxima). We suggest these proxies respond rapidly to low-latitude insolation forcing by wind-driven processes (e.g., dust transport, upwelling, precipitation). Most Iberian Margin sediment parameters lag obliquity maxima by 7-8 ka, indicating a consistent linear response to insolation forcing at obliquity frequencies driven mainly by high-latitude processes. Although the lengths of the time series are short (420 ka) for detecting 100 kyr eccentricity cycles, the phase relationships support those obtained by Shackleton []. Antarctic temperature and the Iberian Margin alcohol ratios (C26OH/(C26OH + C29)) lead eccentricity maxima by 6 kyr, with lower ratios (increased oxygenation) occurring at eccentricity maxima. CO2, CH4, and Iberian SST are nearly in phase with eccentricity, and minimum ice volume (as inferred from Pacific d18Oseawater) lags eccentricity maxima by 10 kyr. The phase relationships derived in this study continue to support a potential role of the Earth's carbon cycle in contributing to the 100 kyr cycle.

(Table 1) Water storage changes of the 33 world's largest river basins between 2002-2009

Global change in land water storage and its effect on sea level is estimated over a 7-year time span (August 2002 to July 2009) using space gravimetry data from GRACE. The 33 World largest river basins are considered. We focus on the year-to-year variability and construct a total land water storage time series that we further express in equivalent sea level time series. The short-term trend in total water storage adjusted over this 7-year time span is positive and amounts to 80.6 ± 15.7 km**3/yr (net water storage excess). Most of the positive contribution arises from the Amazon and Siberian basins (Lena and Yenisei), followed by the Zambezi, Orinoco and Ob basins. The largest negative contributions (water deficit) come from the Mississippi, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Aral, Euphrates, Indus and Parana. Expressed in terms of equivalent sea level, total water volume change over 2002-2009 leads to a small negative contribution to sea level of -0.22 ± 0.05 mm/yr. The time series for each basin clearly show that year-to-year variability dominates so that the value estimated in this study cannot be considered as representative of a long-term trend. We also compare the interannual variability of total land water storage (removing the mean trend over the studied time span) with interannual variability in sea level (corrected for thermal expansion). A correlation of ~0.6 is found. Phasing, in particular, is correct. Thus, at least part of the interannual variability of the global mean sea level can be attributed to land water storage fluctuations.

Effects of pCO2 and iron on the elemental composition and cell geometry of the marine diatom Pseudo-nitzschia pseudodelicatissima//(Bacillariophyceae)

Partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) and iron availability in seawater show corresponding changes due to biological and anthropogenic activities. The simultaneous change in these factors precludes an understanding of their independent effects on the ecophysiology of phytoplankton. In addition, there is a lack of data regarding the interactive effects of these factors on phytoplankton cellular stoichiometry, which is a key driving factor for the biogeochemical cycling of oceanic nutrients. Here, we investigated the effects of pCO2 and iron availability on the elemental composition (C, N, P, and Si) of the diatom Pseudo-nitzschia pseudodelicatissima (Hasle) Hasle by dilute batch cultures under 4 pCO2 (~200, ~380, ~600, and ~800 µatm) and five dissolved inorganic iron (Fe'; ~5, ~10, ~20, ~50, and ~100 pmol /L) conditions. Our experimental procedure successfully overcame the problems associated with simultaneous changes in pCO2 and Fe' by independently manipulating carbonate chemistry and iron speciation, which allowed us to evaluate the individual effects of pCO2 and iron availability. We found that the C:N ratio decreased significantly only with an increase in Fe', whereas the C:P ratio increased significantly only with an increase in pCO2. Both Si:C and Si:N ratios decreased with increasing pCO2 and Fe'. Our results indicate that changes in pCO2 and iron availability could influence the biogeochemical cycling of nutrients in future oceans with high- CO2 levels, and, similarly, during the time course of phytoplankton blooms. Moreover, pCO2 and iron availability may also have affected oceanic nutrient biogeochemistry in the past, as these conditions have changed markedly over the Earth's history.

Seawater carbonate chemistry in Hog reef and calcification rate in the Bermuda reef community, 2010

Despite the potential impact of ocean acidification on ecosystems such as coral reefs, surprisingly, there is very limited field data on the relationships between calcification and seawater carbonate chemistry. In this study, contemporaneous in situ datasets of seawater carbonate chemistry and calcification rates from the high-latitude coral reef of Bermuda over annual timescales provide a framework for investigating the present and future potential impact of rising carbon dioxide (CO2) levels and ocean acidification on coral reef ecosystems in their natural environment. A strong correlation was found between the in situ rates of calcification for the major framework building coral species Diploria labyrinthiformis and the seasonal variability of [CO32-] and aragonite saturation state omega aragonite, rather than other environmental factors such as light and temperature. These field observations provide sufficient data to hypothesize that there is a seasonal "Carbonate Chemistry Coral Reef Ecosystem Feedback" (CREF hypothesis) between the primary components of the reef ecosystem (i.e., scleractinian hard corals and macroalgae) and seawater carbonate chemistry. In early summer, strong net autotrophy from benthic components of the reef system enhance [CO32-] and omega aragonite conditions, and rates of coral calcification due to the photosynthetic uptake of CO2. In late summer, rates of coral calcification are suppressed by release of CO2 from reef metabolism during a period of strong net heterotrophy. It is likely that this seasonal CREF mechanism is present in other tropical reefs although attenuated compared to high-latitude reefs such as Bermuda. Due to lower annual mean surface seawater [CO32-] and omega aragonite in Bermuda compared to tropical regions, we anticipate that Bermuda corals will experience seasonal periods of zero net calcification within the next decade at [CO32-] and omega aragonite thresholds of ~184 micro moles kg-1 and 2.65. However, net autotrophy of the reef during winter and spring (as part of the CREF hypothesis) may delay the onset of zero NEC or decalcification going forward by enhancing [CO32-] and omega aragonite. The Bermuda coral reef is one of the first responders to the negative impacts of ocean acidification, and we estimate that calcification rates for D. labyrinthiformis have declined by >50% compared to pre-industrial times.

Simulated changes in ocean physics and carbon cycle for LGM experiments with shifting positions of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds using the MITgcm, links to model results in NetCDF format

We explore the impact of a latitudinal shift in the westerly wind belt over the Southern Ocean on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and on the carbon cycle for Last Glacial Maximum background conditions using a state-of-the-art ocean general circulation model. We find that a southward (northward) shift in the westerly winds leads to an intensification (weakening) of no more than 10% of the AMOC. This response of the ocean physics to shifting winds agrees with other studies starting from preindustrial background climate, but the responsible processes are different. In our setup changes in AMOC seemed to be more pulled by upwelling in the south than pushed by downwelling in the north, opposite to what previous studies with different background climate are suggesting. The net effects of the changes in ocean circulation lead to a rise in atmospheric pCO2 of less than 10 atm for both northward and southward shift in the winds. For northward shifted winds the zone of upwelling of carbon- and nutrient-rich waters in the Southern Ocean is expanded, leading to more CO2 outgassing to the atmosphere but also to an enhanced biological pump in the subpolar region. For southward shifted winds the upwelling region contracts around Antarctica, leading to less nutrient export northward and thus a weakening of the biological pump. These model results do not support the idea that shifts in the westerly wind belt play a dominant role in coupling atmospheric CO2 rise and Antarctic temperature during deglaciation suggested by the ice core data.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes of Limacina helicina during experiments, 2011

Due to their aragonitic shell, thecosome pteropods may be particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification driven by anthropogenic CO2 emissions. This applies specifically to species inhabiting Arctic surface waters that are projected to become temporarily and locally undersaturated with respect to aragonite as early as 2016. This study investigated the effects of rising partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) and elevated temperature on pre-winter juveniles of the polar pteropod Limacina helicina. After a 29 day experiment in September/October 2009 at three different temperatures and under pCO2 scenarios projected for this century, mortality, shell degradation, shell diameter and shell increment were investigated. Temperature and pCO2 had a significant effect on mortality, but temperature was the overriding factor. Shell diameter, shell increment and shell degradation were significantly impacted by pCO2 but not by temperature. Mortality was 46% higher at 8 °C than at in situ temperature (3 °C), and 14% higher at 1100 ?atm than at 230 ?atm. Shell diameter and increment were reduced by 10 and 12% at 1100 ?atm and 230 ?atm, respectively, and shell degradation was 41% higher at elevated compared to ambient pCO2. We conclude that pre-winter juveniles will be negatively affected by both rising temperature and pCO2 which may result in a possible decline in abundance of the overwintering population, the basis for next year's reproduction.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes of oysters Crassostrea virginica during experiments, 2010

Estuarine organisms are exposed to periodic strong fluctuations in seawater pH driven by biological carbon dioxide (CO2) production, which may in the future be further exacerbated by the ocean acidification associated with the global rise in CO2. Calcium carbonate-producing marine species such as mollusks are expected to be vulnerable to acidification of estuarine waters, since elevated CO2 concentration and lower pH lead to a decrease in the degree of saturation of water with respect to calcium carbonate, potentially affecting biomineralization. Our study demonstrates that the increase in CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) in seawater and associated decrease in pH within the environmentally relevant range for estuaries have negative effects on physiology, rates of shell deposition and mechanical properties of the shells of eastern oysters Crassostrea virginica (Gmelin). High CO2 levels (pH ~7.5, pCO2 ~3500 µatm) caused significant increases in juvenile mortality rates and inhibited both shell and soft-body growth compared to the control conditions (pH ~8.2, pCO2 ~380 µatm). Furthermore, elevated CO2 concentrations resulted in higher standard metabolic rates in oyster juveniles, likely due to the higher energy cost of homeostasis. The high CO2 conditions also led to changes in the ultrastructure and mechanical properties of shells, including increased thickness of the calcite laths within the hypostracum and reduced hardness and fracture toughness of the shells, indicating that elevated CO2 levels have negative effects on the biomineralization process. These data strongly suggest that the rise in CO2 can impact physiology and biomineralization in marine calcifiers such as eastern oysters, threatening their survival and potentially leading to profound ecological and economic impacts in estuarine ecosystems.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and Astrangia poculata mass and zooxanthellate during experiments, 2012

The effects of nutrients and pCO2 on zooxanthellate and azooxanthellate colonies of the temperate scleractinian coral Astrangia poculata (Ellis and Solander, 1786) were investigated at two different temperatures (16 °C and 24 °C). Corals exposed to elevated pCO2 tended to have lower relative calcification rates, as estimated from changes in buoyant weights. Experimental nutrient enrichments had no significant effect nor did there appear to be any interaction between pCO2 and nutrients. Elevated pCO2 appeared to have a similar effect on coral calcification whether zooxanthellae were present or absent at 16 °C. However, at 24 °C, the interpretation of the results is complicated by a significant interaction between gender and pCO2 for spawning corals. At 16 °C, gamete release was not observed, and no gender differences in calcification rates were observed - female and male corals showed similar reductions in calcification rates in response to elevated CO2 (15% and 19% respectively). Corals grown at 24 °C spawned repeatedly and male and female corals exhibited two different growth rate patterns - female corals grown at 24 °C and exposed to CO2 had calcification rates 39% lower than females grown at ambient CO2, while males showed a non-significant decline of 5% under elevated CO2. The increased sensitivity of females to elevated pCO2 may reflect a greater investment of energy in reproduction (egg production) relative to males (sperm production). These results suggest that both gender and spawning are important factors in determining the sensitivity of corals to ocean acidification, and considering these factors in future research may be critical to predicting how the population structures of marine calcifiers will change in response to ocean acidification.