Pollen and spores of sites GeoB8331 and GeoB8323, Namaqualand Mudbelt, Holocene South Africa

To better understand Holocene vegetation and hydrological changes in South Africa, we analyzed pollen and microcharcoal records of two marine sites GeoB8331 and GeoB8323 from the Namaqualand mudbelt offshore the west coast of South Africa covering the last 9900 and 2200 years, respectively. Our data corroborate findings from literature that climate developments apparently contrast between the summer rainfall zone (SRZ) and winter rainfall zone (WRZ) over the last 9900 years, especially during the early and middle Holocene. During the early Holocene (9900-7800 cal.yr BP), a minimum of grass pollen suggests low summer rainfall in the SRZ, and the initial presence of Renosterveld vegetation indicates relatively wet conditions in the WRZ. Towards the middle Holocene (7800-2400 cal. yr BP), a rather moist savanna/grassland rich in grasses suggests higher summer rainfall in the SRZ resulting from increased austral summer insolation and a decline of fynbos vegetation accompanied by an increasing Succulent Karoo vegetation in the WRZ possibly suggests a southward shift of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies. During the last 2200 years, a trend towards higher aridity was observed for the SRZ, while the climate in the WRZ remained relatively stable. The Little Ice Age (ca. 700-200 cal. yr BP) was rather cool in both rainfall zones and drier in the SRZ while wetter in the WRZ.

Mortality and climatic/environmental correlates of Widdringtonia cedargensis trees in the Cederberg, South Africa

Background: Conifer populations appear disproportionately threatened by global change. Most examples are, however, drawn from the northern hemisphere and long-term rates of population decline are not well documented as historical data are often lacking. We use a large and long-term (1931-2013) repeat photography dataset together with environmental data and fire records to account for the decline of the critically endangered Widdringtonia cedarbergensis. Eighty-seven historical and repeat photo-pairs were analysed to establish 20th century changes in W. cedarbergensis demography. A generalized linear mixed-effects model was fitted to determine the relative importance of environmental factors and fire-return interval on mortality for the species. Results: From an initial total of 1313 live trees in historical photographs, 74% had died and only 44 (3.4%) had recruited in the repeat photographs, leaving 387 live individuals. Juveniles (mature adults) had decreased (increased) from 27% (73%) to 8% (92%) over the intervening period. Our model demonstrates that mortality is related to greater fire frequency, higher temperatures, lower elevations, less rocky habitats and aspect (i.e. east-facing slopes had the least mortality). Conclusions: Our results show that W. cedarbergensis populations have declined significantly over the recorded period, with a pronounced decline in the last 30 years. Individuals that established in open habitats at lower, hotter elevations and experienced a greater fire frequency appear to be more vulnerable to mortality than individuals growing within protected, rocky environments at higher, cooler locations with less frequent fires. Climate models predict increasing temperatures for our study area (and likely increases in wildfires). If these predictions are realised, further declines in the species can be expected. Urgent management interventions, including seedling out-planting in fire-protected high elevation sites, reducing fire frequency in higher elevation populations, and assisted migration, should be considered.

Model simulation output data (CCSM3) related to uplift of Africa and Himalaya/Tibet Plateau and the influence on tropical African vegetation

Hominid evolution in the late Miocene has long been hypothesized to be linked to the retreat of the tropical rainforest in Africa. One cause for the climatic and vegetation change often considered was uplift of Africa, but also uplift of the Himalaya and the Tibetan Plateau was suggested to have impacted rainfall distribution over Africa. Recent proxy data suggest that in East Africa open grassland habitats were available to the common ancestors of hominins and apes long before their divergence and do not find evidence for a closed rainforest in the late Miocene. We used the coupled global general circulation model CCSM3 including an interactively coupled dynamic vegetation module to investigate the impact of topography on African hydro-climate and vegetation. We performed sensitivity experiments altering elevations of the Himalaya and the Tibetan Plateau as well as of East and Southern Africa. The simulations confirm the dominant impact of African topography for climate and vegetation development of the African tropics. Only a weak influence of prescribed Asian uplift on African climate could be detected. The model simulations show that rainforest coverage of Central Africa is strongly determined by the presence of elevated African topography. In East Africa, despite wetter conditions with lowered African topography, the conditions were not favorable enough to maintain a closed rainforest. A discussion of the results with respect to other model studies indicates a minor importance of vegetation-atmosphere or ocean-atmosphere feedbacks and a large dependence of the simulated vegetation response on the land surface/vegetation model.