Planktonic foraminiferal faunas and stable isotope ratios of sediments from the Benguela Upwelling System

Two sediment cores retrieved from the continental slope in the Benguela Upwelling System, GeoB 1706 (19°33.7'S 11°10.5'E) and GeoB 1711 (23°18.9'S, 12°22.6'E), reveal striking variations in planktonic foraminiferal abundances during the last 160,000 years. These fluctuations are investigated to assess changes in the intensity and position of the upwelling centres off Namibia. Four species make up over 95% of the variation within the core, and enable the record to be divided into episodes characterized by particular planktonic foraminiferal assemblages. The fossil assemblages have meaningful ecological significance when compared to those of the modern day and the relationship to their environment. The cold-water planktonic foraminifer, Neogloboquadrina pachyderma sinistral [N. pachyderma (s)], dominates the modern-day, coastal upwelling centres, and Neogloboquadrina pachyderma dextral and Globigerina bulloides characterize the fringes of the upwelling cells. Globorotalia inflata is representative of the offshore boundary between newly upwelled waters and the transitional, reduced nutrient levels of the subtropical waters. In the fossil record, episodes of high N. pachyderma (s) abundances are interpreted as evidence of increased upwelling intensity, and the associated increase in nutrients. The N. pachyderma (s) record suggests temporal shifts in the intensity of upwelling, and corresponding trophic domains, that do not follow the typical glacial-interglacial pattern. Periods of high N. pachyderma (s) abundance describe rapid, discrete events dominating isotope stages 3 and 2. The timing of these events correlates to the temporal shifts of the Angola-Benguela Front (Jansen et al., 1997) situated to the north of the Walvis Ridge. Absence of high abundances of N. pachyderma (s) from the continental slope of the southern Cape Basin indicates that Southern Ocean surface water advection has not exerted a major influence on the Benguela Current System. The coincidence of increased upwelling intensity with the movement of the Angola-Benguela Front can be interpreted mainly by changes in strength and zonality of the trade wind system.

High-resolution dynamical downscaling products for the North Slope of Alaska and surrounding areas, links to model result files

Climatic changes are most pronounced in northern high latitude regions. Yet, there is a paucity of observational data, both spatially and temporally, such that regional-scale dynamics are not fully captured, limiting our ability to make reliable projections. In this study, a group of dynamical downscaling products were created for the period 1950 to 2100 to better understand climate change and its impacts on hydrology, permafrost, and ecosystems at a resolution suitable for northern Alaska. An ERA-interim reanalysis dataset and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) served as the forcing mechanisms in this dynamical downscaling framework, and the Weather Research & Forecast (WRF) model, embedded with an optimization for the Arctic (Polar WRF), served as the Regional Climate Model (RCM). This downscaled output consists of multiple climatic variables (precipitation, temperature, wind speed, dew point temperature, and surface air pressure) for a 10 km grid spacing at three-hour intervals. The modeling products were evaluated and calibrated using a bias-correction approach. The ERA-interim forced WRF (ERA-WRF) produced reasonable climatic variables as a result, yielding a more closely correlated temperature field than precipitation field when long-term monthly climatology was compared with its forcing and observational data. A linear scaling method then further corrected the bias, based on ERA-interim monthly climatology, and bias-corrected ERA-WRF fields were applied as a reference for calibration of both the historical and the projected CESM forced WRF (CESM-WRF) products. Biases, such as, a cold temperature bias during summer and a warm temperature bias during winter as well as a wet bias for annual precipitation that CESM holds over northern Alaska persisted in CESM-WRF runs. The linear scaling of CESM-WRF eventually produced high-resolution downscaling products for the Alaskan North Slope for hydrological and ecological research, together with the calibrated ERA-WRF run, and its capability extends far beyond that. Other climatic research has been proposed, including exploration of historical and projected climatic extreme events and their possible connections to low-frequency sea-atmospheric oscillations, as well as near-surface permafrost degradation and ice regime shifts of lakes. These dynamically downscaled, bias corrected climatic datasets provide improved spatial and temporal resolution data necessary for ongoing modeling efforts in northern Alaska focused on reconstructing and projecting hydrologic changes, ecosystem processes and responses, and permafrost thermal regimes. The dynamical downscaling methods presented in this study can also be used to create more suitable model input datasets for other sub-regions of the Arctic.

Treeline dynamics in Siberia under changing climates as inferred from an individual-based model for Larix, supplementary material

Siberian boreal forests are expected to expand northwards in the course of global warming. However, processes of the treeline ecotone transition, as well astiming and related climate feedbacks are still not understood. Here, we present 'Larix Vegetation Simulator' LAVESI, an individual-based spatially-explicit model that can simulate Larix gmelinii (RUPR.) RUPR. stand dynamics in an attempt to improve our understanding about past and future treeline movements under changing climates. The relevant processes (growth, seed production and dispersal, establishment and mortality) are incorporated and adjusted to observation data mainly gained from the literature. Results of a local sensitivity analysis support the robustness of the model's parameterization by giving relatively small sensitivity values. We tested the model by simulating tree stands under modern climate across the whole Taymyr Peninsula, north-central Siberia (c. 64-80° N; 92-119° E). We find tree densities similar to observed forests in the northern to mid-treeline areas, but densities are overestimated in the southern parts of the simulated region. Finally, from a temperature-forcing experiment, we detect that the responses of tree stands lag the hypothetical warming by several decades, until the end of 21st century. With our simulation experiments we demonstrate that the newly-developed model captures the dynamics of the Siberian latitudinal treeline.

Stable isotope ratios of planktonic foraminifera from North Atlantic surface sediments

We measured the oxygen isotopic composition of the deep-dwelling foraminiferal species G. inflata, G. truncatulinoides dextral and sinistral, and P. obliquiloculata in 29 modern core tops raised from the North Atlantic Ocean. We compared calculated isotopic temperatures with atlas temperatures and defined ecological models for each species. G. inflata and G. truncatulinoides live preferentially at the base of the seasonal thermocline. Under temperature stress, i.e., when the base of the seasonal thermocline is warmer than 16°C, G. inflata and G. truncatulinoides live deeper in the main thermocline. P. obliquiloculata inhabits the seasonal thermocline in warm regions. We tested our model using 10 cores along the Mauritanian upwelling and show that the comparison of d18O variations registered by the surficial species G. ruber and G. bulloides and the deep-dwelling species G. inflata evidences significant glacial-interglacial shifts of the Mauritanian upwelling cells.

Physiological and ecological variables measured at the high and low pCO2 reef sections

Experiments have shown that ocean acidification due to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations has deleterious effects on the performance of many marine organisms. However, few empirical or modelling studies have addressed the long-term consequences of ocean acidification for marine ecosystems. Here we show that as pH declines from 8.1 to 7.8 (the change expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from 390 to 750 ppm, consistent with some scenarios for the end of this century) some organisms benefit, but many more lose out. We investigated coral reefs, seagrasses and sediments that are acclimatized to low pH at three cool and shallow volcanic carbon dioxide seeps in Papua New Guinea. At reduced pH, we observed reductions in coral diversity, recruitment and abundances of structurally complex framework builders, and shifts in competitive interactions between taxa. However, coral cover remained constant between pH 8.1 and ~7.8, because massive Porites corals established dominance over structural corals, despite low rates of calcification. Reef development ceased below pH 7.7. Our empirical data from this unique field setting confirm model predictions that ocean acidification, together with temperature stress, will probably lead to severely reduced diversity, structural complexity and resilience of Indo-Pacific coral reefs within this century.

Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological-economic modeling

Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species - Atlantic salmon and European sea bass - mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process-based ecological-economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different sce- narios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond.

Age model and pollen analysis from site GIK16867 in the northern Angola Basin

Sporomorphs and dinoflagellate cysts from site GIK16867 in the northern Angola Basin record the vegetation history of the West African forest during the last 700 ka in relation to changes in salinity and productivity of the eastern Gulf of Guinea. During most cool and cold periods, the Afromontane forest, rather than the open grass-rich dry forest, expanded to lower altitudes partly replacing the lowland rain forest of the borderlands east of the Gulf of Guinea. Except in Stage 3, when oceanic productivity was high during a period of decreased atmospheric circulation, high oceanic productivity is correlated to strong winds. The response of marine productivity in the course of a climatic cycle, however, is earlier than that of wind vigour and makes wind-stress-induced oceanic upwelling in the area less likely. Monsoon variation is well illustrated by the pollen record of increased lowland rain forest that is paired to the dinoflagellate cyst record of decreased salinity forced by increased precipitation and run-off.