Measured daily precipitation sums over Central Sulawesi for the period 1981-1999

Data compiled within the IMPENSO project. The Impact of ENSO on Sustainable Water Management and the Decision-Making Community at a Rainforest Margin in Indonesia (IMPENSO), http://www.gwdg.de/~impenso, was a German-Indonesian research project (2003-2007) that has studied the impact of ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) on the water resources and the agricultural production in the PALU RIVER watershed in Central Sulawesi. ENSO is a climate variability that causes serious droughts in Indonesia and other countries of South-East Asia. The last ENSO event occurred in 1997. As in other regions, many farmers in Central Sulawesi suffered from reduced crop yields and lost their livestock. A better prediction of ENSO and the development of coping strategies would help local communities mitigate the impact of ENSO on rural livelihoods and food security. The IMPENSO project deals with the impact of the climate variability ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) on water resource management and the local communities in the Palu River watershed of Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. The project consists of three interrelated sub-projects, which study the local and regional manifestation of ENSO using the Regional Climate Models REMO and GESIMA (Sub-project A), quantify the impact of ENSO on the availability of water for agriculture and other uses, using the distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Sub-project B), and analyze the socio-economic impact and the policy implications of ENSO on the basis of a production function analysis, a household vulnerability analysis, and a linear programming model (Sub-project C). The models used in the three sub-projects will be integrated to simulate joint scenarios that are defined in collaboration with local stakeholders and are relevant for the design of coping strategies.

Alkenone accumulation and SST reconstruction for the Benguela upwelling zone

A feature of Pliocene climate is the occurrence of "permanent El Niño-like" or "El Padre" conditions in the Pacific Ocean. From the analysis of sediment cores in the modern northern Benguela upwelling, we show that the mean oceanographic state off Southwest Africa during the warm Pliocene epoch was also analogous to that of a persistent Benguela "El Niño". At present these events occur when massive southward flows of warm and nutrient-poor waters extend along the coasts of Angola and Namibia, with dramatic effects on regional marine ecosystems and rainfall. We propose that the persistent warmth across the Pliocene in the Benguela upwelling ended synchronously with the narrowing of the Indonesian seaway, and the early intensification of the Northern Hemisphere Glaciations around 3.0-3.5 Ma. The emergence of obliquity-related cycles in the Benguela sea surface temperatures (SST) after 3 Ma highlights the development of strengthened links to high latitude orbital forcing. The subsequent evolution of the Benguela upwelling system was characterized by the progressive intensification of the meridional SST gradients, and the emergence of the 100 ky cycle, until the modern mean conditions were set at the end of the Mid Pleistocene transition, around 0.6 Ma. These findings support the notion that the interplay of changes in the depth of the global thermocline, atmospheric circulation and tectonics preconditioned the climate system for the end of the warm Pliocene epoch and the subsequent intensification of the ice ages.