Detection histories for eight species of Amazona parrots in Venezuela during the NeoMaps bird surveys in 2010

Documenting changes in distribution is necessary for understanding species' response to environmental changes, but data on species distributions are heterogeneous in accuracy and resolution. Combining different data sources and methodological approaches can fill gaps in knowledge about the dynamic processes driving changes in species-rich, but data-poor regions. We combined recent bird survey data from the Neotropical Biodiversity Mapping Initiative (NeoMaps) with historical distribution records to estimate potential changes in the distribution of eight species of Amazon parrots in Venezuela. Using environmental covariates and presence-only data from museum collections and the literature, we first used maximum likelihood to fit a species distribution model (SDM) estimating a historical maximum probability of occurrence for each species. We then used recent, NeoMaps survey data to build single-season occupancy models (OM) with the same environmental covariates, as well as with time- and effort-dependent detectability, resulting in estimates of the current probability of occurrence. We finally calculated the disagreement between predictions as a matrix of probability of change in the state of occurrence. Our results suggested negative changes for the only restricted, threatened species, Amazona barbadensis, which has been independently confirmed with field studies. Two of the three remaining widespread species that were detected, Amazona amazonica, Amazona ochrocephala, also had a high probability of negative changes in northern Venezuela, but results were not conclusive for Amazona farinosa. The four remaining species were undetected in recent field surveys; three of these were most probably absent from the survey locations (Amazona autumnalis, Amazona mercenaria and Amazona festiva), while a fourth (Amazona dufresniana) requires more intensive targeted sampling to estimate its current status. Our approach is unique in taking full advantage of available, but limited data, and in detecting a high probability of change even for rare and patchily-distributed species. However, it is presently limited to species meeting the strong assumptions required for maximum-likelihood estimation with presence-only data, including very high detectability and representative sampling of its historical distribution.

Source data for Plos ONE publication Redefining thermal regimes to design reserves for coral reefs in the face of climate change

Reef managers cannot fight global warming through mitigation at local scale, but they can use information on thermal patterns to plan for reserve networks that maximize the probability of persistence of their reef system. Here we assess previous methods for the design of reserves for climate change and present a new approach to prioritize areas for conservation that leverages the most desirable properties of previous approaches. The new method moves the science of reserve design for climate change a step forwards by: (1) recognizing the role of seasonal acclimation in increasing the limits of environmental tolerance of corals and ameliorating the bleaching response; (2) including information from several bleaching events, which frequency is likely to increase in the future; (3) assessing relevant variability at country scales, where most management plans are carried out. We demonstrate the method in Honduras, where a reassessment of the marine spatial plan is in progress.

Ocean temperature measured by elephant seal-CTDs in the Southern Ocean with links to datasets

The potential effects of ocean warming on marine predators are largely unknown, though the impact on the distribution of prey in vertical space may have far reaching impacts on diving predators such as southern elephant seals. We used data from satellite-tracked southern elephant seals from Marion Island to investigate the relationship between their dive characteristics (dive depths, dive durations and time-at-depth index values) and environmental variables (temperature at depth, depth of maximum temperature below 100 m, frontal zone and bathymetry) as well as other demographic and behavioural variables (migration stage, age-class, track day and vertical diel strategy). While other variables, such as bathymetry and vertical diel strategy also influenced dive depth, our results consistently indicated a significant influence of temperature at depth on dive depths. This relationship was positive for all groups of animals, indicating that seals dived to deeper depths when foraging in warmer waters. Female seals adjusted their dive depths proportionally more than males in warmer water. Dive durations were also influenced by temperature at depth, though to a lesser extent. Results from time-at-depth indices showed that both male and female seals spent less time at targeted dive depths in warmer water, and were presumably less successful foragers when diving in warmer water. Continued warming of the Southern Ocean may result in the distribution of prey for southern elephant seals shifting either poleward and/or to increasing depths. Marion Island elephant seals are expected to adapt their ranging and diving behaviour accordingly, though such changes may result in greater physiological costs associated with foraging.

Dive depth and dive duration data of subadult and adult, male and female southern elephant seals from Marion Island between 2004 and 2008 with links to datasets

Although numerous studies have addressed the migration and dive behaviour of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina), questions remain about their habitat use in the marine environment. We report on the vertical use of the water column in the species and the potential lifetime implications for southern elephant seals from Marion Island. Long-term mark-resight data were used to complement vertical habitat use for 35 known individuals tagged with satellite-relay data loggers, resulting in cumulative depth use extrapolated for each individual over its estimated lifespan. Seals spent on average 77.59% of their lives diving at sea, 7.06% at the sea surface, and 15.35% hauled out on land. Some segregation was observed in maximum dive depths and depth use between male and female animals-males evidently being physiologically more capable of exploiting increased depths. Females and males spent 86.98 and 80.89% of their lives at sea, respectively. While at sea, all animals spent more time between 300 and 400 m depth, than any other depth category. Males and females spent comparable percentages of their lifetimes below 100 m depth (males: 65.54%; females: 68.92%), though males spent 8.98% of their lives at depths in excess of 700 m, compared to females' 1.84% at such depths. Adult males often performed benthic dives in excess of 2,000 m, including the deepest known recorded dive of any air-breathing vertebrate (>2,133 m). Our results provide a close approximation of vertical habitat use by southern elephant seals, extrapolated over their lifespans, and we discuss some physiological and developmental implications of their variable depth use.