Ensemble prediction distribution maps of macroalgae for current conditions and four climate change scenarios and high resultion bathymetry for Potter Cove, WAP, Antarctica

Species distribution models (SDM) predict species occurrence based on statistical relationships with environmental conditions. The R-package biomod2 which includes 10 different SDM techniques and 10 different evaluation methods was used in this study. Macroalgae are the main biomass producers in Potter Cove, King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), Antarctica, and they are sensitive to climate change factors such as suspended particulate matter (SPM). Macroalgae presence and absence data were used to test SDMs suitability and, simultaneously, to assess the environmental response of macroalgae as well as to model four scenarios of distribution shifts by varying SPM conditions due to climate change. According to the averaged evaluation scores of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and True scale statistics (TSS) by models, those methods based on a multitude of decision trees such as Random Forest and Classification Tree Analysis, reached the highest predictive power followed by generalized boosted models (GBM) and maximum-entropy approaches (Maxent). The final ensemble model used 135 of 200 calculated models (TSS > 0.7) and identified hard substrate and SPM as the most influencing parameters followed by distance to glacier, total organic carbon (TOC), bathymetry and slope. The climate change scenarios show an invasive reaction of the macroalgae in case of less SPM and a retreat of the macroalgae in case of higher assumed SPM values.

Mineralogy and nannoplankton distribution in ODP Hole 194-1195A

Significant synchronous shifts in the chemistry, mineralogy, grain sizes and color of the sediments at 6 m below sea floor (mbsf) at ODP Site 1195 on the Marion Plateau (NE Australia) are interpreted to reflect a major regional paleoceanographic change: the initiation of the southern province of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The onset of this massive carbonate production centre nearby resulted primarily in increased deposition of carbonate-rich sediments of neritic origin. Both sedimentation rate and terrigenous input record a coincident decline attributed to inshore trapping of materials behind the reefs. Our best estimate places the development of reef framework in the southern part of the GBR between 560 and 670 kyr B.P., based on an age model combining magnetostratigraphic and biostratigraphic data. The proposed estimation agrees with previous studies reporting an age between 500 and 930 kyr B.P., constraining more tightly their results. However, it does not support research placing the birth of the GBR in Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 (~400 kyr), nor the theory of a worldwide modern barrier reef development at that time.

(Appendix) Benthic foraminifera distribution of upper Creatceous and Paleocene at DSDP Hole 72-516F

Benthic foraminifers of the Coniacian-Santonian through the Paleocene were recovered from a continuous pelagic carbonate section from Hole 516F on the Rio Grande Rise. Sixty-five genera and 153 species have been identified, most of which have been reported from other localities. Bathyal depths are reflected in the benthic assemblages dominated by gavelinellids (Gavelinella beccariiformis, G. velascoensis), Nuttallides truempyi, and various gyroidinids and buliminids. Rapid subsidence during the Coniacian-Santonian from nearshore to upper to middle bathyal depths was followed by much reduced subsidence, with the Campanian-Paleocene interval accumulating at middle bathyal to lower bathyal depths. A census study based on detailed sampling reveals major changes in benthic faunal composition at the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary transition. It was a time of rapid turnover, with the extinctions of numerous species and the introduction of many new species. Overall, species diversity decreases about 20%, and approximately one-third of latest Maestrichtian species do not survive to the end of the Cretaceous. This shift indicates a significant environmental change in the deep sea, the precise nature of which is not apparent from the foraminifers or their enclosing sediments.

(Table 1) n-alkane distribution, and stable carbon and deuterium isotope ratios of DSDP Hole 10-94

Hydrology, source region, and timing of precipitation are important controls on the climate of the Great Plains of North America and the composition of terrestrial ecosystems. Moisture delivered to the Great Plains varies seasonally and predominately derives from the Gulf of Mexico/Atlantic Ocean with minor contributions from the Pacific Ocean and Arctic region. For this work, we evaluate long-term relationships for the past ~ 35 million years between North American hydrology, climate, and floral change, using isotopic records and average carbon chain lengths of higher plant n-alkanes from Gulf of Mexico sediments (DSDP Site 94). We find that carbon isotope values (d13C) of n-alkanes, corrected for variations in the d13C value of atmospheric CO2, provide minor evidence for contributions of C4 plants prior to the Middle Miocene. A sharp spike in C4 input is identified during the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum, and the influence of C4 plants steadily increased during the Late Miocene into the Pleistocene - consistent with other North American records. Chain-length distributions of n-alkanes, indicative of the composition of higher plant communities, remained remarkably constant from 33 to 4 Ma. However, a trend toward longer chain lengths occurred during the past 4 million years, concurrent with an increase in d13C values, indicating increased C4 plant influence and potentially aridity. The hydrogen isotope values (dD) of n-alkanes are relatively invariant between 33 and 9 Ma, and then become substantially more negative (75 per mil) from 9 to 2 Ma. Changes in the plant community and temperature of precipitation can solely account for the observed variations in dD from 33 to 5 Ma, but cannot account for Plio-Pleistocene dD variations and imply substantial changes in the source region of precipitation and seasonality of moisture delivery. We posit that hydrological changes were linked to tectonic and oceanographic processes including the shoaling and closure of the Panamanian Seaway, amplification of North Atlantic Deep Water Production and an associated increase of meridional winds. The southerly movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone near 4 Ma allowed for the development of a near-modern pressure/storm track system, driving increased aridity and changes in seasonality within the North American interior.

Plant distribution and climate data across western North America

Using an extensive network of occurrence records for 293 plant species collected over the past 40 years across a climatically diverse geographic section of western North America, we find that plant species distributions were just as likely to shift upwards (i.e., towards higher elevations) as downward (i.e., towards lower elevations) - despite consistent warming across the study area. Although there was no clear directional response to climate warming across the entire study area, there was significant region-to region- variation in responses (i.e. from as many as 73% to as few as32% of species shifting upward or downward). To understand the factors that might be controlling region-specific distributional shifts, we explored the relationship between the direction of change in distribution limits and the nature of recent climate change. We found that the direction of distribution limit shifts was explained by an interaction between the rate of change in local summer temperatures and seasonal precipitation. Specifically, species shifted upward at their upper elevational limit when snowfall declined at slower rates and minimum temperatures increased. By contrast, species shifted upwards at their lower elevation limit when maximum temperatures increased or both temperature and precipitation decreased. Our results suggest that future species' elevational distribution shifts will be complex, depending on the interaction between seasonal temperature and precipitation change.

Distribution of Cretaceous redeposited benthic foraminifers at DSDP Site 89-585

Cretaceous benthic foraminifers from Site 585 in the East Mariana Basin, western Pacific Ocean, provide an environmental and tectonic history of the Basin and the surrounding seamounts. Age diagnostic species (from a fauna of 155 benthic species identified) range from late Aptian to Maestrichtian in age. Displaced species in sediments derived from the tops and flanks of nearby seamounts were deposited sporadically on the Basin floor well below the carbonate compensation depth (CCD) at abyssal depths of 5000 to 6000 m. These depths, characterized by an indigenous assemblage of benthic foraminifers, recrystallized radiolarians, fish debris, and sponge spicules, existed in the Mariana Basin from late Aptian to the present. Early Albian and older edifice-building volcanism had reached the photic zone with associated shallow-water bank or reef environments. By middle Albian, the dominant source areas subsided to outer-neritic to upper-bathyal depths. Major volcanic activity ceased and fine-grained sediments were deposited by distal turbidites, although intermittent volcanism and the influx of rare neritic material continued until the late Albian. By the Cenomanian to Turonian, upper- to middle-bathyal depths were reached by the dominant source areas, and the sediments recovered from this interval include organic carbon-rich layers. Rare benthic foraminifers from the Coniacian-Santonian interval indicate a continuation of dominantly middle-bathyal source areas. A change in sedimentation during the Campanian-Maestrichtian from older zeolitic claystone to abundant chert in the Campanian, and nannofossil chalk and claystone in the Maestrichtian resulted from migration of the site beneath the equatorial productive zone due to northwestward plate motion. The appearance of rare middle-neritic and upper-bathyal species in the Maestrichtian interval associated with volcanogenic debris gives evidence of the remobilization and downslope transport of pelagic deposits due to thermally induced uplift. Episodic redeposition of shallow-water material during the Aptian-Albian was produced by edifice-building volcanism perhaps combined with eustatic lowering of sea level. The Cenomanian-Turonian pulse coincided with a low global sea-level stand as does the transported material during the Coniacian-Santonian. The Maestrichtian pulse was caused by renewed midplate volcanism that extended over a large area of the central Pacific.

Grain size distribution and clay mineralogy of upper Miocene sediments of ODP Hole 107-652A

The upper Miocene sedimentary sequence of Site 652, located on the lower continental margin of eastern Sardinia, was cored and logged during Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 107. Geophysical and geochemical logs from the interval 170-365 m below seafloor (mbsf), as well as various core measurements (CaCO3, grain size, X-ray diffraction), provide a mineralogical-geochemical picture that is interpreted in the framework of the climatic and tectonic evolution of the western Tyrrhenian. The results indicate the presence of short- and long-term mineralogical variations. Short-term variations are represented by calcium-carbonate fluctuations in which the amount of CaCO3 is correlated to the grain size of the sediments; coarser sediments are associated with high carbonate content and abundant detrital material. Long-term variation corresponds to a gross grain-size change in the upper part of the sequence, where predominantly fine-grained sediments may indicate a gradual deepening of the lacustrine basin towards the Pliocene. Regional climatic changes and rift-related tectonism are possible causes of this variability in the sedimentation patterns. The clay association is characterized by chlorite, illite, and smectite as dominant minerals, as well as mixed-layers clays, kaolinite, and palygorskite. Chlorite, mixed-layers clays, and illite increase at the expense of smectite below the pebble zone (335 mbsf). This is indicative of diagenetic processes related to the high geothermal gradient and to the chemistry of the evaporative pore waters, rather than to changes in the depositional environment.

Age model and grain size distribution of the fine fraction of ODP Site 114-704

The physical properties of sediments beneath an upwelling area in the southern part of the Atlantic Ocean (ODP Hole 704A) were investigated. Highly significant correlations characterize the relationship of carbonate content to bulk density (R = 0.85), carbonate content to porosity (R = 0.84), and carbonate content to impedance (R = 0.84). No relationship exists between carbonate content and compressional-wave velocity (R = 0.24), indicating that amplitude variations in impedance are primarily controlled by variations in bulk density, which, in turn, are controlled by climatically driven biogenic opal and carbonate deposition. In general, maxima in impedance correspond to maxima in carbonate content (minima in opal content). The impedance record exhibits its most drastic change at about 2.4 Ma, marking dramatic increases in the average content of biogenic opal and the beginning of large-amplitude fluctuations. Between 0.7 and 0.4 Ma carbonate content, bulk density, and grain density decrease while opal content drastically increases. Similar changes have been observed in sediments beneath an upwelling cell off northwest Africa, indicating an oceanwide enhancement in upwelling or in the calcite corrosiveness of bottom water that appears to be isochronous.

Composition and distribution of silica in sediments of the Broken Ridge

Within a dipping sequence of middle Cretaceous to Eocene sediments on Broken Ridge, opal-A, opal-CT, and quartz occur as minor constituents in carbonate and ash-rich sediments. Biogenic opal-A is mainly derived from diatoms and radiolarians. Opal-A and almost all siliceous microfossils disappear within a narrow (<20-m-thick) transition zone below which authigenic opal-CT and quartz are present. These latter silica polymorphs occur together within a 750-m-thick interval, but the ratio of quartz/opal-CT increases with increasing age and depth within the pre-rift sediment sequence. The boundary between opal-A- and opal-CT-bearing sediments is also a physical boundary at which density, P-wave velocity, and acoustic impedance change. This physical transition is probably caused by infilling of pore space by opal-CT lepispheres.

Distribution of pollen and spores in sediments of ODP Hole 175-1078C

The distribution of pollen in marine sediments is used to record vegetation change on the continent. Generally, a good latitudinal correspondence exists between the distribution patterns of pollen in the marine surface sediments and the occurrence of the source plants on the adjacent continent. To investigate land-sea interactions during deglaciation, we compare proxies for continental (pollen assemblages) and marine conditions (alkenone-derived sea surface temperatures) of two high-resolution, radiocarbon-dated sedimentary records from the tropical southeast Atlantic. The southern site is located West of the Cunene River mouth; the northern site is located West of the Angolan Huambe Mountains. It is inferred that the vegetation in Angola developed from Afroalpine and open savannah during the last Glacial maximum (LGM) via Afromontane Podocarpus forest during Heinrich Event 1 (H1), to an early increase of lowland forest after 14.5 ka. The vegetation record indicates dry and cold conditions during the LGM, cool and wet conditions during H1 and a gradual rise in temperature starting well before the Younger Dryas (YD) period. Terrestrial and oceanic climate developments seem largely running parallel, in contrast to the situation ca. 5° further South, where marine and terrestrial developments diverge during the YD. The cool and wet conditions in tropical West Africa, South of the equator, during H1 suggest that low-latitude insolation variation is more important than the slowdown of the thermohaline circulation for the climate in tropical Africa.

World distribution of land cover changes, model in NetCDF format

The role of Pre- and Protohistoric anthropogenic land cover changes needs to be quantified i) to establish a baseline for comparison with current human impact on the environment and ii) to separate it from naturally occurring changes in our environment. Results are presented from the simple, adaptation-driven, spatially explicit Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES) for pre-Bronze age demographic, technological and economic change. Using scaling parameters from the History Database of the Global Environment as well as GLUES-simulated population density and subsistence style, the land requirement for growing crops is estimated. The intrusion of cropland into potentially forested areas is translated into carbon loss due to deforestation with the dynamic global vegetation model VECODE. The land demand in important Prehistoric growth areas - converted from mostly forested areas - led to large-scale regional (country size) deforestation of up to 11% of the potential forest. In total, 29 Gt carbon were lost from global forests between 10 000 BC and 2000 BC and were replaced by crops; this value is consistent with other estimates of Prehistoric deforestation. The generation of realistic (agri-)cultural development trajectories at a regional resolution is a major strength of GLUES. Most of the pre-Bronze age deforestation is simulated in a broad farming belt from Central Europe via India to China. Regional carbon loss is, e.g., 5 Gt in Europe and the Mediterranean, 6 Gt on the Indian subcontinent, 18 Gt in East and Southeast Asia, or 2.3 Gt in subsaharan Africa.