Salinization MASS Model Version

This salinization simulation enables irrigation salinity, capillary rise, rainfall, leaching, salt mitigation strategies via fallowing, and other functions that are addressed in a coupled social-environment model applied to southern Mesopotamia. The simulation is applied to the Modeling Ancient Settlement Systems Project supported by the University of Chicago, Durham University, and Argonne National Laboratory. The simulation can be used for other regions.

Mass balance and acceleration of the Greenland ice sheet

Within the last decade, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its surroundings have experienced record high surface temperatures (Mote, 2007, doi:10.1029/2007GL031976; Box et al., 2010), ice sheet melt extent (Fettweis et al., 2011, doi:10.5194/tc-5-359-2011) and record-low summer sea-ice extent (Nghiem et al., 2007, doi:10.1029/2007GL031138). Using three independent data sets, we derive, for the first time, consistent ice-mass trends and temporal variations within seven major drainage basins from gravity fields from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE; Tapley et al., 2004, doi:10.1029/2004GL019920), surface-ice velocities from Inteferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR; Rignot and Kanagaratnam, 2006, doi:10.1126/science.1121381) together with output of the regional atmospheric climate modelling (RACMO2/ GR; Ettema et al., 2009, doi:10.1029/2009GL038110), and surface-elevation changes from the Ice, cloud and land elevation satellite (ICESat; Sorensen et al., 2011, doi:10.5194/tc-5-173-2011). We show that changing ice discharge (D), surface melting and subsequent run-off (M/R) and precipitation (P) all contribute, in a complex and regionally variable interplay, to the increasingly negative mass balance of the GrIS observed within the last decade. Interannual variability in P along the northwest and west coasts of the GrIS largely explains the apparent regional mass loss increase during 2002-2010, and obscures increasing M/R and D since the 1990s. In winter 2002/2003 and 2008/2009, accumulation anomalies in the east and southeast temporarily outweighed the losses by M/R and D that prevailed during 2003-2008, and after summer 2010. Overall, for all basins of the GrIS, the decadal variability of anomalies in P, M/R and D between 1958 and 2010 (w.r.t. 1961-1990) was significantly exceeded by the regional trends observed during the GRACE period (2002-2011).

Snow depths of volcanic events and accumulation rates of firn cores from the IPY traverse, Antarctica

Volcanic signatures in ice-core records provide an excellent means to date the cores and obtain information about accumulation rates. From several ice cores it is thus possible to extract a spatio-temporal accumulation pattern. We show records of electrical conductivity and sulfur from 13 firn cores from the Norwegian-USA scientific traverse during the International Polar Year 2007-2009 (IPY) through East Antarctica. Major volcanic eruptions are identified and used to assess century-scale accumulation changes. The largest changes seem to occur in the most recent decades with accumulation over the period 1963-2007/08 being up to 25% different from the long-term record. There is no clear overall trend, some sites show an increase in accumulation over the period 1963 to present while others show a decrease. Almost all of the sites above 3200 m above sea level (asl) suggest a decrease. These sites also show a significantly lower accumulation value than large-scale assessments both for the period 1963 to present and for the long-term mean at the respective drill sites. The spatial accumulation distribution is influenced mainly by elevation and distance to the ocean (continentality), as expected. Ground-penetrating radar data around the drill sites show a spatial variability within 10-20% over several tens of kilometers, indicating that our drill sites are well representative for the area around them. Our results are important for large-scale assessments of Antarctic mass balance and model validation.

Benthic foraminiferal stable isotope stratigraphy of ODP Site 138-846 in the tropical Pacific Ocean

A stable-isotope stratigraphy at Site 846 (tropical Pacific, 3°06'S, 90°49'W, 3307 m water depth), based on the benthic foraminifers Cibicides wuellerstorfi and Uvigerina peregrina, yields a high-resolution record of deep-sea delta18O and delta13C over the past 1.8 Ma, with an average sampling interval of 3 k.y. Variance in the delta18O and delta13C records is concentrated in the well-known orbital periods of 100, 41, and 23 k.y. In the 100-k.y. band, both isotopic signals grow from relatively low amplitudes prior to 1.2 Ma, to high amplitudes in the late Quaternary since 0.7 Ma. The amplitude of delta18O and especially of delta13C decreases in the 41-k.y. band as it grows in the 100-k.y. band, consistent with a transfer of energy into an orbitally-paced internal oscillation. A weak 30-k.y. rhythm, present in both delta18O and delta13C, may reflect nonlinear interaction between the 41-k.y. and 100-k.y. bands in the evolving climate system. In the 23-k.y. and 19-k.y. bands associated with orbital precession, delta18O and delta13C are not coherent with each other on long time scales, and do not evolve like the 100-k.y. and 41-k.y. bands. This suggests that the source of the growing 100-k.y. oscillation is not a nonlinear response to precession, in contrast to predictions of some climate models. Sedimentation rates at this site also vary with a strong 100-k.y. cycle. Unlike the isotope records, the amplitude of 100-k.y. variations in sedimentation rate is relatively constant over the past 1.8 Ma, ranging from about 15 to 70 m/m.y. Prior to 0.9 Ma, sedimentation rates co-vary with orbital eccentricity, rather than with global climate as reflected by delta18O or delta13C. A source of this 100-k.y. cycle of sedimentation rate in the absence of similar ice volume fluctuations may be precessional heating of equatorial land masses, which in an energy balance climate model drives variations of monsoonal climates with a 100-k.y. rhythm. For the interval younger than 0.9 Ma, high sedimentation rates in the 100-k.y. band are consistently associated with glacial stages. This change of pattern suggests that when the amplitude of glacial cycles become large enough, their global effects overpower a local monsoon-driven variation in sedimentation rate at Site 846.

Carbon isotopic record of CO2 from the Holocene of the Dome C ice core

Reconstructions of atmospheric CO2 concentrations based on Antarctic ice cores reveal significant changes during the Holocene epoch, but the processes responsible for these changes in CO2 concentrations have not been unambiguously identified. Distinct characteristics in the carbon isotope signatures of the major carbon reservoirs (ocean, biosphere, sediments and atmosphere) constrain variations in the CO2 fluxes between those reservoirs. Here we present a highly resolved atmospheric d13C record for the past 11,000 years from measurements on atmospheric CO2 trapped in an Antarctic ice core. From mass-balance inverse model calculations performed with a simplified carbon cycle model, we show that the decrease in atmospheric CO2 of about 5 parts per million by volume (p.p.m.v.) and the increase in d13C of about 0.25% during the early Holocene is most probably the result of a combination of carbon uptake of about 290 gigatonnes of carbon by the land biosphere and carbon release from the ocean in response to carbonate compensation of the terrestrial uptake during the termination of the last ice age. The 20 p.p.m.v. increase of atmospheric CO2 and the small decrease in d13C of about 0.05% during the later Holocene can mostly be explained by contributions from carbonate compensation of earlier land-biosphere uptake and coral reef formation, with only a minor contribution from a small decrease of the land-biosphere carbon inventory.

(Table 1) Correlation of precipitation and winter mass balance (bw) at Storbreen, Norway

Measurements of winter balance (bw) and summer balance (bs) have been carried out at Storbreen since 1949. Here we apply a simple mass balance model to study the climate sensitivity and to reconstruct the mass balance series prior to 1949. The model is calibrated and validated with data from an automatic weather station (AWS) operating in the ablation zone of Storbreen since 2001. Regression analysis revealed that bw was best modelled using precipitation data southwest of the glacier. Results from the model compared well with reported mass balance values for the period 1949-2006, obtained correlations (r) for bw and bs varied between 0.83 and 0.87 depending on model set up. Reconstruction of the mass balance series for the period 1924/1925-1948/1949 suggested a cumulative mass deficit of c. 30 m w.e. mainly due to highly negative summer balances, but also lower bw than the average for 1949-2006. Calculated change in specific mass balance for a ±1°C change in air temperature was ±0.55 m w.e., whereas a ±10 % increase in precipitation represented a change of ± 0.20 m w.e. Model results further indicated that for a 2°C warming, the ablation season will be extended by c. 30 days and that the period of ice melt at the AWS location will increase from c. 40 to c. 80 days.

Table 2: Firn temperature, ram resistance, mass balance and submergence velo city measurements on Colle Gnifetti

Distributional patterns of glaciological parameters at the Colle Gnifetti core drilling site are described and their interrelationships are brietly discussed. Observations within a stake network established in 1980 furnish information about snow accumulation (short term balance), submergence velocity of ice tlow (long term balance), ram hardness (melt layer stratigraphy), and firn temperature. In addition, a numerical model was used to estimate local variations of available radiant energy. Melt layer formation is considerably more intensive on the south facing parts of the firn saddie where incoming radiation is high. These melt layers seem to effectively protect some of the fallen snow from wind erosion. As a result, balance ist up to one order of magnitude larger on south facing slopes. Heat applied to the surface is therefore positively correlated with balance, whereas the relation between solar radiation and firn temperature is less dear. Distributional patterns of submergence velocity confirm that the observed spatial variability of surface balance is representative for longer time periods and greatly intluences the time scale and the stratigraphy of firn and ice cores from Colle Gnifetti.