48 resultados para Predicting future earnings growth
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The ubiquitous marine trace gas dimethyl sulfide (DMS) comprises the greatest natural source of sulfur to the atmosphere and is a key player in atmospheric chemistry and climate. We explore the short-term response of DMS production and cycling and that of its algal precursor dimethyl sulfoniopropionate (DMSP) to elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and ocean acidification (OA) in five 96 h shipboard bioassay experiments. Experiments were performed in June and July 2011, using water collected from contrasting sites in NW European waters (Outer Hebrides, Irish Sea, Bay of Biscay, North Sea). Concentrations of DMS and DMSP, alongside rates of DMSP synthesis and DMS production and consumption, were determined during all experiments for ambient CO2 and three high-CO2 treatments (550, 750, 1000 µatm). In general, the response to OA throughout this region showed little variation, despite encompassing a range of biological and biogeochemical conditions. We observed consistent and marked increases in DMS concentrations relative to ambient controls (110% (28-223%) at 550 µatm, 153% (56-295%) at 750 µatm and 225% (79-413%) at 1000 µatm), and decreases in DMSP concentrations (28% (18-40%) at 550 µatm, 44% (18-64%) at 750 µatm and 52% (24-72%) at 1000 µatm). Significant decreases in DMSP synthesis rate constants (µDMSP /d) and DMSP production rates (nmol/d) were observed in two experiments (7-90% decrease), whilst the response under high CO2 from the remaining experiments was generally indistinguishable from ambient controls. Rates of bacterial DMS gross consumption and production gave weak and inconsistent responses to high CO2. The variables and rates we report increase our understanding of the processes behind the response to OA. This could provide the opportunity to improve upon mesocosm-derived empirical modelling relationships and to move towards a mechanistic approach for predicting future DMS concentrations.
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Iceberg calving has been assumed to be the dominant cause of mass loss for the Antarctic ice sheet, with previous estimates of the calving flux exceeding 2,000 gigatonnes per year. More recently, the importance of melting by the ocean has been demonstrated close to the grounding line and near the calving front. So far, however, no study has reliably quantified the calving flux and the basal mass balance (the balance between accretion and ablation at the ice-sheet base) for the whole of Antarctica. The distribution of fresh water in the Southern Ocean and its partitioning between the liquid and solid phases is therefore poorly constrained. Here we estimate the mass balance components for all ice shelves in Antarctica, using satellite measurements of calving flux and grounding-line flux, modelled ice-shelf snow accumulation rates and a regional scaling that accounts for unsurveyed areas. We obtain a total calving flux of 1,321 ± 144 gigatonnes per year and a total basal mass balance of -1,454 ± 174 gigatonnes per year. This means that about half of the ice-sheet surface mass gain is lost through oceanic erosion before reaching the ice front, and the calving flux is about 34 per cent less than previous estimates derived from iceberg tracking. In addition, the fraction of mass loss due to basal processes varies from about 10 to 90 per cent between ice shelves. We find a significant positive correlation between basal mass loss and surface elevation change for ice shelves experiencing surface lowering and enhanced discharge. We suggest that basal mass loss is a valuable metric for predicting future ice-shelf vulnerability to oceanic forcing.
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Future oceans are predicted to contain less oxygen than at present. This is because oxygen is less soluble in warmer water and predicted stratification will reduce mixing. Hypoxia in marine environments is thus likely to become more widespread in marine environments and understanding species-responses is important to predicting future impacts on biodiversity. This study used a tractable model, the Antarctic clam, Laternula elliptica, which can live for 36 years, and has a well-characterized ecology and physiology to understand responses to hypoxia and how the effect varied with age. Younger animals had a higher condition index, higher adenylate energy charge and transcriptional profiling indicated that they were physically active in their response to hypoxia, whereas older animals were more sedentary, with higher levels of oxidative damage and apoptosis in the gills. These effects could be attributed, in part, to age-related tissue scaling; older animals had proportionally less contractile muscle mass and smaller gills and foot compared with younger animals, with consequential effects on the whole-animal physiological response. The data here emphasize the importance of including age effects, as large mature individuals appear to be less able to resist hypoxic conditions and this is the size range that is the major contributor to future generations. Thus, the increased prevalence of hypoxia in future oceans may have marked effects on benthic organisms' abilities to persist and this is especially so for long-lived species when predicting responses to environmental perturbation.
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Coral reefs are under threat, exerted by a number of interacting effects inherent to the present climate change, including ocean acidification and global warming. Bioerosion drives reef degradation by recycling carbonate skeletal material and is an important but understudied factor in this context. Twelve different combinations of pCO2 and temperature were applied to elucidate the consequences of ocean acidification and global warming on the physiological response and bioerosion rates of the zooxanthellate sponge Cliona orientalis-one of the most abundant and effective bioeroders on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Our results confirm a significant amplification of the sponges' bioerosion capacity with increasing pCO2, which is expressed by more carbonate being chemically dissolved by etching. The health of the sponges and their photosymbionts was not affected by changes in pCO2, in contrast to temperature, which had significant negative impacts at higher levels. However, we could not conclusively explain the relationship between temperature and bioerosion rates, which were slightly reduced at both colder as well as warmer temperatures than ambient. The present findings on the effects of ocean acidification on chemical bioerosion, however, will have significant implications for predicting future reef carbonate budgets, as sponges often contribute the lion's share of internal bioerosion on coral reefs.
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The Sulu Sea is located in the 'warm pool' of the western Pacific Ocean, where mean annual temperatures are the highest of anywhere on Earth. Because this large heat source supplies the atmosphere with a significant portion of its water vapour and latent heat, understanding the climate history of the region is important for reconstructing global palaeoclimate and for predicting future climate change. Changes in the oxygen isotope composition of planktonic foraminifera from Sulu Sea sediments have previously been shown to reflect changes in the planetary ice volume at glacial-interglacial and millenial timeseales, and such records have been obtained for the late Pleistocene epoch and the last deglaciation (Linsley and Thunell, 1990, doi:10.1029/PA005i006p01025; Lindley and Dunbar, 1994, doi:10.1029/93PA03216; Kudrass et al., 1991, doi:10.1038/349406a0). Here I present results that extend the millenial time resolution record back to 150,000 years before present. On timescales of around 10,000 years, the Sulu Sea oxygen-isotope record matches changes in sea level deduced from coral terraces on the Huon peninsula (Chappell and Shackleton, doi:10.1038/324137a0). This is particularly the case during isotope stage 3 (an interglacial period 23,000 to 58,000 years ago) where the Sulu Sea oxygen-isotope record deviates from the SPECMAP deep-ocean oxygen-isotope record (Imbrie et al., 1984). Thus these results support the idea (Chappell and Shackleton, doi:10.1038/324137a0; Shackleton, 1987, doi:10.1016/0277-3791(87)90003-5) that there were higher sea levels and less continental ice during stage 3 than the SPECMAP record implies and that sea level during this interglacial was just 40-50 metres below present levels. The subsequent rate of increase in continental ice volume during the return to full glacial conditions was correspondingly faster than previously thought.
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The response of Emiliania huxleyi (Lohmann) W. W. Hay et H. Mohler, Calcidiscus leptoporus (G. Murray et V. H. Blackman) J. Schiller, andSyracosphaera pulchra Lohmann to elevated partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) was investigated in batch cultures. We reported on the response of both haploid and diploid life stages of these three species. Growth rate, cell size, particulate inorganic carbon (PIC), and particulate organic carbon (POC) of both life stages were measured at two different pCO2 (400 and 760 parts per million [ppm]), and their organic and inorganic carbon production were calculated. The two life stages within the same species generally exhibited a similar response to elevated pCO2, the response of the haploid stage being often more pronounced than that of the diploid stage. The growth rate was consistently higher at elevated pCO2, but the response of other processes varied among species. Calcification rate of C. leptoporusand of S. pulchra did not change at elevated pCO2, whereas it increased in E. huxleyi. POC production and cell size of both life stages of S. pulchra and of the haploid stage of E. huxleyi markedly decreased at elevated pCO2. It remained unaltered in the diploid stage of E. huxleyi and C. leptoporus and increased in the haploid stage of the latter. The PIC:POC ratio increased in E. huxleyi and was constant in C. leptoporus and S. pulchra. Elevated pCO2 has a significant effect on these three coccolithophore species, the haploid stage being more sensitive. This effect must be taken into account when predicting the fate of coccolithophores in the future ocean.
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With each cellular generation, oxygenic photoautotrophs must accumulate abundant protein complexes that mediate light capture, photosynthetic electron transport and carbon fixation. In addition to this net synthesis, oxygenic photoautotrophs must counter the light-dependent photoinactivation of Photosystem II (PSII), using metabolically expensive proteolysis, disassembly, resynthesis and re-assembly of protein subunits. We used growth rates, elemental analyses and protein quantitations to estimate the nitrogen (N) metabolism costs to both accumulate the photosynthetic system and to maintain PSII function in the diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana, growing at two pCO2 levels across a range of light levels. The photosynthetic system contains c. 15-25% of total cellular N. Under low growth light, N (re)cycling through PSII repair is only c. 1% of the cellular N assimilation rate. As growth light increases to inhibitory levels, N metabolite cycling through PSII repair increases to c. 14% of the cellular N assimilation rate. Cells growing under the assumed future 750 ppmv pCO2 show higher growth rates under optimal light, coinciding with a lowered N metabolic cost to maintain photosynthesis, but then suffer greater photoinhibition of growth under excess light, coincident with rising costs to maintain photosynthesis. We predict this quantitative trait response to light will vary across taxa.
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Modern scleractinian corals are classical components of marine shallow warm water ecosystems. Their occurrence and diversity patterns in the geological record have been widely used to infer past climates and environmental conditions. Coral skeletal composition data reflecting the nature of the coral environment are often affected by diagenetic alteration. Ghost structures of annual growth rhythms are, however, often well preserved in the transformed skeleton. We show that these relicts represent a valuable source of information on growth conditions of fossil corals. Annual growth bands were measured in massive hemispherical Porites of late Miocene age from the island of Crete (Greece) that were found in patch reefs and level bottom associations of attached mixed clastic environments as well as isolated carbonate environments. The Miocene corals grew slowly, about 2-4 mm/yr, compatible with present-day Porites from high-latitude reefs. Slow annual growth of the Miocene corals is in good agreement with the position of Crete at the margin of the Miocene reef belt. Within a given time slice, extension rates were lowest in level bottom environments and highest in attached inshore reef systems. Because sea surface temperatures (SSTs) can be expected to be uniform within a time slice, spatial variations in extension rates must reflect local variations in light levels (low in the level bottom communities) and nutrients (high in the attached reef systems). During the late Miocene (Tortonian-early Messinian), maximum linear extension rates remained remarkably constant within seven chronostratigraphic units, and if the relationship of SSTs and annual growth rates observed for modern massive Indo-Pacific Porites spp. applies to the Neogene, minimum (winter) SSTs were 20°-21°C. Although our paleoclimatic record has a low resolution, it fits the trends revealed by global data sets. In the near future we expect this new and easy to use Porites thermometer to add important new information to our understanding of Neogene climate.
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In spring, Arctic coastal fast ice is inhabited by high densities of sea ice algae and, among other fauna, juveniles of benthic polychaetes. This paper investigates the hypothesis that growth rates of juveniles of the common sympagic polychaete, Scolelepis squamata (Polychaeta: Spionidae), are significantly faster at sea ice algal bloom concentrations compared to concurrent phytoplankton concentrations. Juvenile S. squamata from fast ice off Barrow, Alaska, were fed with different algal concentrations at 0 and 5 °C, simulating ambient high sea ice algal concentrations, concurrent low phytoplankton concentrations, and an intermediate concentration. Growth rates, calculated using a simple linear regression equation, were significantly higher (up to 115 times) at the highest algal concentration compared to the lowest. At the highest algal concentration, juveniles grew faster at 5 °C compared to those feeding at 0 °C with a Q10 of 2.0. We conclude that highly concentrated sea ice algae can sustain faster growth rates of polychaete juveniles compared to the less dense spring phytoplankton concentrations. The earlier melt of Arctic sea ice predicted with climate change might cause a mismatch between occurrence of polychaete juveniles and food availability in the near future. Our data indicate that this reduction in food availability might counteract any faster growth of a pelagic juvenile stage based on forecasted increased water temperatures.
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The eastern Mediterranean is a hotspot of biological invasions. Numerous species of Indo-pacific origin have colonized the Mediterranean in recent times, including tropical symbiont-bearing foraminifera. Among these is the species Pararotalia calcariformata. Unlike other invasive foraminifera, this species has been discovered only two decades ago and is restricted to the eastern Mediterranean coast. Combining ecological, genetic and physiological observations, we attempt to explain the recent invasion of this species in the Mediterranean Sea. Using morphological and genetic data, we confirm the species attribution to P. calcariformata McCulloch 1977 and identify its symbionts as a consortium of diatom species dominated by Minutocellus polymorphus. We document photosynthetic activity of its endosymbionts using Pulse Amplitude Modulated Fluorometry and test the effects of elevated temperatures on growth rates of asexual offspring. The culturing of asexual offspring for 120 days shows a 30-day period of rapid growth followed by a period of slower growth. A subsequent 48-day temperature sensitivity experiment indicates a similar developmental pathway and high growth rate at 28°C, whereas an almost complete inhibition of growth was observed at 20°C and 35°C. This indicates that the offspring of this species may have lower tolerance to cold temperatures than what would be expected for species native to the Mediterranean. We expand this hypothesis by applying a Species Distribution Model (SDM) based on modern occurrences in the Mediterranean using three environmental variables: irradiance, turbidity and yearly minimum temperature. The model reproduces the observed restricted distribution and indicates that the range of the species will drastically expand westwards under future global change scenarios. We conclude that P. calcariformata established a population in the Levant because of the recent warming in the region. In line with observations from other groups of organisms, our results indicate that continued warming of the eastern Mediterranean will facilitate the invasion of more tropical marine taxa into the Mediterranean, disturbing local biodiversity and ecosystem structure.
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Rising anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) dissolving into coastal waters is decreasing the pH and carbonate ion concentration, thereby lowering the saturation state of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) minerals through a process named ocean acidification (OA). The unprecedented threats posed by such low pH on calcifying larvae of several edible oyster species have not yet been fully explored. Effects of low pH (7.9, 7.6, 7.4) on the early growth phase of Portuguese oyster (Crassostrea angulata) veliger larvae was examined at ambient salinity (34 ppt) and the low-salinity (27 ppt) treatment. Additionally, the combined effect of pH (8.1, 7.6), salinity (24 and 34 ppt) and temperature (24 °C and 30 °C) was examined using factorial experimental design. Surprisingly, the early growth phase from hatching to 5-day-old veliger stage showed high tolerance to pH 7.9 and pH 7.6 at both 34 ppt and 27 ppt. Larval shell area was significantly smaller at pH 7.4 only in low-salinity. In the 3-factor experiment, shell area was affected by salinity and the interaction between salinity and temperature but not by other combinations. Larvae produced the largest shell at the elevated temperature in low-salinity, regardless of pH. Thus the growth of the Portuguese oyster larvae appears to be robust to near-future pH level (> 7.6) when combined with projected elevated temperature and low-salinity in the coastal aquaculture zones of South China Sea.
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This study aimed to examine interactive effects between ocean acidification and temperature on the photosynthetic and growth performance of Neosiphonia harveyi. N. harveyi was cultivated at 10 and 17.5 °C at present (~380 µatm), expected future (~800 µatm), and high (~1500 µatm) pCO2. Chlorophyll a fluorescence, net photosynthesis, and growth were measured. The state of the carbon-concentrating mechanism (CCM) was examined by pH-drift experiments (with algae cultivated at 10 °C only) using ethoxyzolamide, an inhibitor of external and internal carbonic anhydrases (exCA and intCA, respectively). Furthermore, the inhibitory effect of acetazolamide (an inhibitor of exCA) and Tris (an inhibitor of the acidification of the diffusive boundary layer) on net photosynthesis was measured at both temperatures. Temperature affected photosynthesis (in terms of photosynthetic efficiency, light saturation point, and net photosynthesis) and growth at present pCO2, but these effects decreased with increasing pCO2. The relevance of the CCM decreased at 10 °C. A pCO2 effect on the CCM could only be shown if intCA and exCA were inhibited. The experiments demonstrate for the first time interactions between ocean acidification and temperature on the performance of a non-calcifying macroalga and show that the effects of low temperature on photosynthesis can be alleviated by increasing pCO2. The findings indicate that the carbon acquisition mediated by exCA and acidification of the diffusive boundary layer decrease at low temperatures but are not affected by the cultivation level of pCO2, whereas the activity of intCA is affected by pCO2. Ecologically, the findings suggest that ocean acidification might affect the biogeographical distribution of N. harveyi.
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Emiliania huxleyi (strain B 92/11) was exposed to different nutrient supply, CO2 and temperature conditions in phosphorus controlled chemostats to investigate effects on organic carbon exudation and partitioning between the pools of particulate organic carbon (POC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). 14C incubation measurements for primary production (PP) and extracellular release (ER) were performed. Chemical analysis included the amount and composition of high molecular weight (>1 kDa) dissolved combined carbohydrates (HMW-dCCHO), particulate combined carbohydrates (pCCHO) and the carbon content of transparent exopolymer particles (TEP-C). Applied CO2 and temperature conditions were 300, 550 and 900 µatm pCO2 at 14 °C, and additionally 900 µatm pCO2 at 18 °C simulating a greenhouse ocean scenario. Enhanced nutrient stress by reducing the dilution rate (D) from D = 0.3 /d to D = 0.1 /d (D = µ) induced the strongest response in E. huxleyi. At µ = 0.3 /d, PP was significantly higher at elevated CO2 and temperature and DO14C production correlated to PO14C production in all treatments, resulting in similar percentages of extracellular release (PER; (DO14C production/PP) × 100) averaging 3.74 ± 0.94%. At µ = 0.1 /d, PO14C production decreased significantly, while exudation of DO14C increased. Thus, indicating a stronger partitioning from the particulate to the dissolved pool. Maximum PER of 16.3 ± 2.3% were observed at µ = 0.1 /d at elevated CO2 and temperature. While cell densities remained constant within each treatment and throughout the experiment, concentrations of HMW-dCCHO, pCCHO and TEP were generally higher under enhanced nutrient stress. At µ= 0.3 /d, pCCHO concentration increased significantly with elevated CO2 and temperature. At µ = 0.1 /d, the contribution (mol % C) of HMW-dCCHO to DOC was lower at elevated CO2 and temperature while pCCHO and TEP concentrations were higher. This was most pronounced under greenhouse conditions. Our findings suggest a stronger transformation of primary produced DOC into POC by coagulation of exudates under nutrient limitation. Our results further imply that elevated CO2 and temperature will increase exudation by E. huxleyi and may affect organic carbon partitioning in the ocean due to an enhanced transfer of HMW-dCCHO to TEP by aggregation processes.
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Coccolithophores are unicellular phytoplankton that produce calcium carbonate coccoliths as an exoskeleton. Emiliania huxleyi, the most abundant coccolithophore in the world's ocean, plays a major role in the global carbon cycle by regulating the exchange of CO2 across the ocean-atmosphere interface through photosynthesis and calcium carbonate precipitation. As CO2 concentration is rising in the atmosphere, the ocean is acidifying and ammonium (NH4) concentration of future ocean water is expected to rise. The latter is attributed to increasing anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition, increasing rates of cyanobacterial N2 fixation due to warmer and more stratified oceans, and decreased rates of nitrification due to ocean acidification. Thus future global climate change will cause oceanic phytoplankton to experience changes in multiple environmental parameters including CO2, pH, temperature and nitrogen source. This study reports on the combined effect of elevated pCO2 and increased NH4 to nitrate (NO3) ratio (NH4/NO3) on E. huxleyi, maintained in continuous cultures for more than 200 generations under two pCO2 levels and two different N sources. Here we show that NH4 assimilation under N-replete conditions depresses calcification at both low and high pCO2, alters coccolith morphology, and increases primary production. We observed that N source and pCO2 synergistically drive growth rates, cell size and the ratio of inorganic to organic carbon. These responses to N source suggest that, compared to increasing CO2 alone, a greater disruption of the organic carbon pump could be expected in response to the combined effect of increased NH4/NO3 ratio and CO2 level in the future acidified ocean. Additional experiments conducted under lower nutrient conditions are needed prior to extrapolating our findings to the global oceans. Nonetheless, our results emphasize the need to assess combined effects of multiple environmental parameters on phytoplankton biology in order to develop accurate predictions of phytoplankton responses to ocean acidification.