On the Southern Ocean CO2 uptake and the role of the biological carbon pump in the 21st century, links to supplementary material

We use a suite of eight ocean biogeochemical/ecological general circulation models from the MAREMIP and CMIP5 archives to explore the relative roles of changes in winds (positive trend of Southern Annular Mode, SAM) and in warming- and freshening-driven trends of upper ocean stratification in altering export production and CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean at the end of the 21st century. The investigated models simulate a broad range of responses to climate change, with no agreement ona dominance of either the SAM or the warming signal south of 44° S. In the southernmost zone, i.e., south of 58° S, they concur on an increase of biological export production, while between 44 and 58° S the models lack consensus on the sign of change in export. Yet, in both regions, the models show an enhanced CO2 uptake during spring and summer. This is due to a larger CO 2 (aq) drawdown by the same amount of summer export production at a higher Revelle factor at the end of the 21st century. This strongly increases the importance of the biological carbon pump in the entire Southern Ocean. In the temperate zone, between 30 and 44° S all models show a predominance of the warming signal and a nutrient-driven reduction of export production. As a consequence, the share of the regions south of 44° S to the total uptake of the Southern Ocean south of 30° S is projected to increase at the end of the 21st century from 47 to 66% with a commensurable decrease to the north. Despite this major reorganization of the meridional distribution of the major regions of uptake, the total uptake increases largely in line with the rising atmospheric CO2. Simulations with the MITgcm-REcoM2 model show that this is mostly driven by the strong increase of atmospheric CO2, with the climate-driven changes of natural CO2 exchange offsetting that trend only to a limited degree (~10%) and with negligible impact of climate effects on anthropogenic CO2 uptake when integrated over a full annual cycle south of 30° S.

Geometric parameters of shoreface profiles of Laptev Sea erosion coast (Table 1)

Field investigations of the Laptev Sea shoreface morphology were carried out (1) off erosional shores composed of unconsolidated sediments, (2) off the modern delta shores of the Lena River, and (3) off rocky shores. It was found that profiles off erosional shores had a concave shape. This shape is not well described by commonly applied power functions, a feature, which is in disagreement with the generally accepted concept of the equilibrium shape of shoreface profiles. The position of the lower shoreface boundary is determined by the elevation of the coastal lowland inundated during the last transgression (at -5 to -10 m) and may easily be recognized by a sharp, an order of magnitude decrease in the mean inclination of the sea floor. The mean shoreface inclination depends on sediment grain-size and ranges from 0.0022 to 0.033. The concave shape of the shoreface did not change substantially during the last 20-30 years, which indicates that shoreline retreat did not slow down and hence suggests continued intensive coastal erosion in the 21st century. The underwater part of the Lena River delta extends up to 35 km offshore. Its upper part is formed by a shallow and up to 18-km wide bench, which reaches depths of 2-3 m along the outer edge. The evolution of the delta was irregular. Whereas some parts of the delta are advancing rapidly (58 m/year), other parts are eroding. Comparison of measured profiles with older bathymetric data gave an opportunity to evaluate the changes of the underwater delta over past decades. Bathymetric surveys of the seabed around the delta can thus contribute towards a quantification of the sediment budget of the river-sea system. In addition, some sections of the Laptev Sea coast are composed of bedrock that has a comparatively low resistance to wave erosion. These sections may supply a considerable amount of sediment, especially if the cliffs are high. This source must therefore also be taken into account when assessing the contribution of shore erosion to the Laptev Sea sediment budget.

Wetland maps including open water extent dynamics based on ENVISAT ASAR WS for Siberia, 2007 and 2008, links to GeoTIFFs

Wetlands store large amounts of carbon, and depending on their status and type, they release specific amounts of methane gas to the atmosphere. The connection between wetland type and methane emission has been investigated in various studies and utilized in climate change monitoring and modelling. For improved estimation of methane emissions, land surface models require information such as the wetland fraction and its dynamics over large areas. Existing datasets of wetland dynamics present the total amount of wetland (fraction) for each model grid cell, but do not discriminate the different wetland types like permanent lakes, periodically inundated areas or peatlands. Wetland types differently influence methane fluxes and thus their contribution to the total wetland fraction should be quantified. Especially wetlands of permafrost regions are expected to have a strong impact on future climate due to soil thawing. In this study ENIVSAT ASAR Wide Swath data was tested for operational monitoring of the distribution of areas with a long-term SW near 1 (hSW) in northern Russia (SW = degree of saturation with water, 1 = saturated), which is a specific characteristic of peatlands. For the whole northern Russia, areas with hSW were delineated and discriminated from dynamic and open water bodies for the years 2007 and 2008. The area identified with this method amounts to approximately 300,000 km**2 in northern Siberia in 2007. It overlaps with zones of high carbon storage. Comparison with a range of related datasets (static and dynamic) showed that hSW represents not only peatlands but also temporary wetlands associated with post-forest fire conditions in permafrost regions. Annual long-term monitoring of change in boreal and tundra environments is possible with the presented approach. Sentinel-1, the successor of ENVISAT ASAR, will provide data that may allow continuous monitoring of these wetland dynamics in the future complementing global observations of wetland fraction.

Organic carbon and total nitrogen stocks in soils of the Lena River Delta

The Lena River Delta, which is the largest delta in the Arctic, extends over an area of 32 000 km**2 and likely holds more than half of the entire soil organic carbon (SOC) mass stored in the seven major deltas in the northern permafrost regions. The geomorphic units of the Lena River Delta which were formed by true deltaic sedimentation processes are a Holocene river terrace and the active floodplains. Their mean SOC stocks for the upper 1 m of soils were estimated at 29 kg/m**2 ± 10 kg/m**2 and at 14 kg/m**2 ± 7 kg/m**2, respectively. For the depth of 1 m, the total SOC pool of the Holocene river terrace was estimated at 121 Tg ± 43 Tg, and the SOC pool of the active floodplains was estimated at 120 Tg ± 66 Tg. The mass of SOC stored within the observed seasonally thawed active layer was estimated at about 127 Tg assuming an average maximum active layer depth of 50 cm. The SOC mass which is stored in the perennially frozen ground at the increment 50-100 cm soil depth, which is currently excluded from intense biogeochemical exchange with the atmosphere, was estimated at 113 Tg. The mean nitrogen (N) stocks for the upper 1 m of soils were estimated at 1.2 kg/m**2 ± 0.4 kg/m**2 for the Holocene river terrace and at 0.9 kg/m**2 ± 0.4 kg/m**2 for the active floodplain levels, respectively. For the depth of 1 m, the total N pool of the river terrace was estimated at 4.8 Tg ± 1.5 Tg, and the total N pool of the floodplains was estimated at 7.7 Tg ± 3.6 Tg. Considering the projections for deepening of the seasonally thawed active layer up to 120 cm in the Lena River Delta region within the 21st century, these large carbon and nitrogen stocks could become increasingly available for decomposition and mineralization processes.

Fluxes and meteorological observations on Spitsbergen

Arctic permafrost may be adversely affected by climate change in a number of ways, so that establishing a world-wide monitoring program seems imperative. This thesis evaluates possibilities for permafrost monitoring at the example of a permafrost site on Svalbard, Norway. An energy balance model for permafrost temperatures is developed that evaluates the different components of the surface energy budget in analogy to climate models. The surface energy budget, consisting of radiation components, sensible and latent heat fluxes as well as the ground heat flux, is measured over the course of one year, which has not been accomplished for arctic land areas so far. A considerable small-scale heterogeneity of the summer surface temperature is observed in long-term measurements with a thermal imaging system, which can be reproduced in the energy balance model. The model can also simulate the impact of different snow depths on the soil temperature, that has been documented in field measurements. Furthermore, time series of terrestrial surface temperature measurements are compared to satellite-borne measurements, for which a significant cold-bias is observed during winter. Finally, different possibilities for a world-wide monitoring scheme are assessed. Energy budget models can incorporate different satellite data sets as training data sets for parameter estimation, so that they may constitute an alternative to purely satellite-based schemes.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, nutrients and growth rate of coral (Acropora intermedia) and coral-reef seaweed (Lobophora papenfussii) during experiments, 2011

Space competition between corals and seaweeds is an important ecological process underlying coral-reef dynamics. Processes promoting seaweed growth and survival, such as herbivore overfishing and eutrophication, can lead to local reef degradation. Here, we present the case that increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 may be an additional process driving a shift from corals to seaweeds on reefs. Coral (Acropora intermedia) mortality in contact with a common coral-reef seaweed (Lobophora papenfussii) increased two- to threefold between background CO2 (400 ppm) and highest level projected for late 21st century (1140 ppm). The strong interaction between CO2 and seaweeds on coral mortality was most likely attributable to a chemical competitive mechanism, as control corals with algal mimics showed no mortality. Our results suggest that coral (Acropora) reefs may become increasingly susceptible to seaweed proliferation under ocean acidification, and processes regulating algal abundance (e.g. herbivory) will play an increasingly important role in maintaining coral abundance.

Temperature, water level and bathymetry of thermokarst lakes in the continuous permafrost zone of northern Siberia - Lena River Delta, Siberia

Thermokarst lakes are typical features of the northern permafrost ecosystems, and play an important role in the thermal exchange between atmosphere and subsurface. The objective of this study is to describe the main thermal processes of the lakes and to quantify the heat exchange with the underlying sediments. The thermal regimes of five lakes located within the continuous permafrost zone of northern Siberia (Lena River Delta) were investigated using hourly water temperature and water level records covering a 3-year period (2009-2012), together with bathymetric survey data. The lakes included thermokarst lakes located on Holocene river terraces that may be connected to Lena River water during spring flooding, and a thermokarst lake located on deposits of the Pleistocene Ice Complex. Lakes were covered by ice up to 2 m thick that persisted for more than 7 months of the year, from October until about mid-June. Lake-bottom temperatures increased at the start of the ice-covered period due to upward-directed heat flux from the underlying thawed sediment. Prior to ice break-up, solar radiation effectively warmed the water beneath the ice cover and induced convective mixing. Ice break-up started at the beginning of June and lasted until the middle or end of June. Mixing occurred within the entire water column from the start of ice break-up and continued during the ice-free periods, as confirmed by the Wedderburn numbers, a quantitative measure of the balance between wind mixing and stratification that is important for describing the biogeochemical cycles of lakes. The lake thermal regime was modeled numerically using the FLake model. The model demonstrated good agreement with observations with regard to the mean lake temperature, with a good reproduction of the summer stratification during the ice-free period, but poor agreement during the ice-covered period. Modeled sensitivity to lake depth demonstrated that lakes in this climatic zone with mean depths > 5 m develop continuous stratification in summer for at least 1 month. The modeled vertical heat flux across the bottom sediment tends towards an annual mean of zero, with maximum downward fluxes of about 5 W/m**2 in summer and with heat released back into the water column at a rate of less than 1 W/m**2 during the ice-covered period. The lakes are shown to be efficient heat absorbers and effectively distribute the heat through mixing. Monthly bottom water temperatures during the ice-free period range up to 15 °C and are therefore higher than the associated monthly air or ground temperatures in the surrounding frozen permafrost landscape. The investigated lakes remain unfrozen at depth, with mean annual lake-bottom temperatures of between 2.7 and 4 °C.

Downscaled land surface temperatures obtained by a particle smoothing approach, with links to NetCDF files

This dataset contains continuous time series of land surface temperature (LST) at spatial resolution of 300m around the 12 experimental sites of the PAGE21 project (grant agreement number 282700, funded by the EC seventh Framework Program theme FP7-ENV-2011). This dataset was produced from hourly LST time series at 25km scale, retrieved from SSM/I data (André et al., 2015, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2015.01.028) and downscaled to 300m using a dynamic model and a particle smoothing approach. This methodology is based on two main assumptions. First, LST spatial variability is mostly explained by land cover and soil hydric state. Second, LST is unique for a land cover class within the low resolution pixel. Given these hypotheses, this variable can be estimated using a land cover map and a physically based land surface model constrained with observations using a data assimilation process. This methodology described in Mechri et al. (2014, doi:10.1002/2013JD020354) was applied to the ORCHIDEE land surface model (Krinner et al., 2005, doi:10.1029/2003GB002199) to estimate prior values of each land cover class provided by the ESA CCI-Land Cover product (Bontemps et al., 2013) at 300m resolution . The assimilation process (particle smoother) consists in simulating ensemble of LST time series for each land cover class and for a large number of parameter sets. For each parameter set, the resulting temperatures are aggregated considering the grid fraction of each land cover and compared to the coarse observations. Miniminizing the distance between the aggregated model solutions and the observations allow us to select the simulated LST and the corresponding parameter sets which fit the observations most closely. The retained parameter sets are then duplicated and randomly perturbed before simulating the next time window. At the end, the most likely LST of each land cover class are estimated and used to reconstruct LST maps at 300m resolution using ESA CCI-Land Cover. The resulting temperature maps on which ice pixels were masked, are provided at daily time step during the nine-year analysis period (2000-2009).

(Table 1) Dominant species and total biomass of macrozoobenthos communities in the southwestern Kara Sea

The structure and distribution of the macrobenthic communities were studied in the southwestern Kara Sea. The material was collected in Baidaratskaya Bay in July 2007 and in a section running westward of the Yamal Peninsula in September 2007. The depths of the sampling stations ranged from 5 to 25 m in the Baidaratskaya Bay area and between 16 and 46 m in the Yamal section. A total of 212 benthic invertebrate species were recorded. In both areas, Bivalvia was the group with the highest biomass (54.88 g/m**2 in the Yamal section and 59.71 g/m**2 in the Baidaratskaya Bay area), while polychaetes were the group with the highest number of species (45 in the Yamal section and 64 the Baidaratskaya Bay area). Three major macrozoobenthic communities were recognized: the Astarte borealis community (20-46 m, the deepest sampling stations in both areas); the 'medium-depth' community (10-20 m, extremely mosaic, usually dominated by Serripes groenlandicus); and the Nephtys longosetosa community (depth smaller than 10 m, characterized by low biomass and the absence of large bivalves and echinoderms). The western Yamal shallow-water communities were shown to be generally similar to those of Baidaratskaya Bay. The comparison of these results with those of the benthos censuses performed in 1927-1945, 1975, and 1993 showed that the benthic communities in the southwestern Kara Sea remained relatively stable during the second half of the 20th century and the early 21st century.