76 resultados para Holt-Winters


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The climate of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, the interglacial roughly 400,000 years ago, is investigated for four time slices, 416, 410, 400, and 394 ka. The overall picture is that MIS 11 was a relatively warm interglacial in comparison to preindustrial, with Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer temperatures early in MIS 11 (416-410 ka) warmer than preindustrial, though winters were cooler. Later in MIS 11, especially around 400 ka, conditions were cooler in the NH summer, mainly in the high latitudes. Climate changes simulated by the models were mainly driven by insolation changes, with the exception of two local feedbacks that amplify climate changes. Here, the NH high latitudes, where reductions in sea ice cover lead to a winter warming early in MIS 11, as well as the tropics, where monsoon changes lead to stronger climate variations than one would expect on the basis of latitudinal mean insolation change alone, are especially prominent. The results support a northward expansion of trees at the expense of grasses in the high northern latitudes early during MIS 11, especially in northern Asia and North America.

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Geotechnical properties of sediment from Ocean Drilling Program Leg 164 are presented as: (1) normalized shipboard strength ratios from the Cape Fear Diapir, the Blake Ridge Diapir, and the Blake Ridge; and (2) Atterberg limit, vane shear strength, pocket-penetrometer strength, and constant-rate-of-strain consolidation results from Hole 995A, located on the Blake Ridge. This study was conducted to understand the stress history in a region characterized by high sedimentation rates and the presence of gas hydrates. Collectively, the results indicate that sediment from the Blake Ridge exhibits significant underconsolidated behavior, except near the seafloor. At least 10 m of additional overburden was removed by erosion or mass wasting at Hole 993A on the Cape Fear Diapir, compared to nearby sites.

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The environmental interpretation of the 13C/12C variations in the skeletons of massive corals is still a matter of debate. A 19-year seasonal skeletal 13C/12C record of a shallow-water Pontes coral from the northern Red Sea (Gulf of Aqaba) documents interannual events of extraordinarily large plankton blooms, indicated by anomalous 13C depletions in the coral skeleton. These blooms are caused by deep vertical water mass mixing, convectively driven in colder winters, which results in increased supplies of nutrients to the surface waters. The deep vertical mixings can sometimes be driven by the cooling occurring throughout the Middle East after large tropical volcanic eruptions. We therefore have evidence in our coral skeletal 13C/12C record for an indirect volcanic signal of the eruptions of El Chichón (1982) and Mount Pinatubo (1991). Deep mixing induced 13C/12C variations of the dissolved inorganic carbon in the surface waters can be neglected at this location. We therefore suggest that the 13C skeletal depletions can be best explained by changes in the coral's autotrophy-heterotrophy diet, through increased heterotrophic feeding on Zooplankton during the blooms. Increased feeding on 13C-depleted Zooplankton or increased heterotrophy at the expense of autotrophy can both result in a 13C-depleted coral skeleton. However, this suggestion requires more testing. If our conclusions are substantiated, seasonal skeletal 13C/12C records of corals which change from autotrophy under normal conditions to increased heterotrophy during bloom events may be used as indicators of ocean paleoproductivity at interannual resolution, available from no other source.

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Planktonic foraminiferal census counts were converted to sea surface temperature (SST) estimates using the modern analogue technique (MAT) for the middle-late Pliocene (4.0-2.37 Ma) in ODP Site 1125, north side of Chatham Rise, SW Pacific Ocean. MAT SST(warm) records range between 8°C and 20.5°C, and MAT SST(cold) records parallel that pattern but with a temperature range of 5-15°C. The modern position of Site 1125 is just north of the Subtropical Front and has an annual temperature range of ~14-18°C. Pliocene warmest temperatures are 1-2° warmer than modern summers, whereas cold season SST records are up to 6-10°C cooler than modern winters. Overall average temperatures at the site are 2-3°C cooler than modern temperatures during a time of sustained global warmth. Three major cold excursions centred on 3.35, 3.0, and 2.8 Ma showed warm season temperatures over 5°C colder than the last glacial maximum, experiencing temperatures typical of modern subantarctic waters. Two minor cold excursions at 2.7 Ma and 2.4 Ma experienced temperatures cooler than modern winters but not as cold as last glacial conditions. Cold season SSTs show a shift to warmer climate upward through the study interval, whereas warm season estimates remain essentially unchanged. We interpret the strong regional cooling of subtropical Southwest Pacific water through the middle-late Pliocene as having been caused by increased upwelling. It is also possible that the subtropical frontal zone moved north over the site in the Pliocene, however, this is considered the least likely interpretation. Our record of cool conditions in the Southwest Pacific corroborate evidence of cooler than modern conditions in other regions of the western Pacific through the mid-Pliocene despite overall global warming.

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1. Winter temperatures differ markedly on the Canadian prairies compared with Denmark. Between 1 January 1998 and 31 December 2002, average weekly and monthly temperatures did not drop below 0 °C in the vicinity of Silkeborg, Denmark. Over this same time, weekly average temperatures near Calgary, Alberta, Canada, often dropped below -10 °C for 3-5 weeks and the average monthly temperature was below 0 °C for 2-4 months. Accordingly, winter ice conditions in shallow lakes in Canada and Denmark differed considerably. 2. To assess the implications of winter climate for lake biotic structure and function we compared a number of variables that describe the chemistry and biology of shallow Canadian and Danish lakes that had been chosen to have similar morphometries. 3. The Danish lakes had a fourfold higher ratio of chlorophyll-a: total phosphorus (TP). Zooplankton : phytoplankton carbon was related to TP and fish abundance in Danish lakes but not in Canadian lakes. There was no significant difference in the ratio log total zooplankton biomass : log TP and the Canadian lakes had a significantly higher proportion of cladocerans that were Daphnia. These differences correspond well with the fact that the Danish lakes have more abundant and diverse fish communities than the Canadian lakes. 4. Our results suggest that severe Canadian winters lead to anoxia under ice and more depauperate fish communities, and stronger zooplankton control on phytoplankton in shallow prairie lakes compared with shallow Danish lakes. If climate change leads to warmer winters and a shorter duration of ice cover, we predict that shallow Canadian prairie lakes will experience increased survivorship of planktivores and stronger control of zooplankton. This, in turn, might decrease zooplankton control on phytoplankton, leading to 'greener' lakes on the Canadian prairies.

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The Laurichard active rock glacier is the permafrost-related landform with the longest record of monitoring in France, including an annual geodetic survey, repeated geoelectrical campaigns from 1979 onwards and continuous recording of ground temperature since 2003. These data were used to examine changes in creep rates and internal structure from 1986 to 2006. The control that climatic variables exert on rock glacier kinematics was investigated over three time scales. Between the 1980s and the early 2000s, the main observed changes were a general increase in surface velocity and a decrease in internal resistivity. At a multi-year scale, the high correlation between surface movement and snow thickness in the preceding December appears to confirm the importance of snow cover conditions in early winter through their influence on the ground thermal regime. A comparison of surface velocities, regional climatic datasets and ground sub-surface temperatures over six years suggests a strong relation between rock glacier deformation and ground temperature, as well as a role for liquid water due to melt of thick snow cover. Finally, unusual surface lowering that accompanied peak velocities in 2004 may be due to a general thaw of the top of the permafrost, probably caused both by two successive snowy winters and by high energy inputs during the warm summer of 2003.