Inference in Ecology: The Sea Urchin Phenomenon in the Northwestern Atlantic

We have reviewed the considerable body of research into the sea urchin phenomenon responsible for the alternation between macroalgal beds and coralline barrens in the northwestern Atlantic. In doing so, we have identified problems with both the scientific approach and the interpretation of results. Over a period of approximately 20 years, explanations for the phenomenon invoked four separate scenarios, which changed mainly as a consequence of extraneous events rather than experimental testing. Our specific concerns are that results contrary to the keystone-predator paradigm for the American lobster were circumvented, system components of the various scenarios became accepted without testing, and modifications of some components appeared arbitrary. Our review illustrates dilemmas that, we suggest, have hindered ecological progress in general. We argue for a more rigorous experimental approach, based on sound natural-history observations and strong inference. Moreover, we believe that the scientific community needs to be cautious about allowing paradigms to become established without adequate scrutiny.

Prediction of Benthic Impact for Salmon Net-Pens Based on the Balance of Benthic Oxygen Supply and Demand

The ratio between oxygen supply and oxygen demand was examined as a predictor of benthic response to organic enrichment caused by salmon net-pen aquaculture. Oxygen supply to the benthos was calculated based on Fickian diffusion and near-bottom flow velocities. A strong linear correlation was found between measured carbon sedimentation rates and rates of benthic metabolism. This relationship allowed an estimation of oxygen demand based on sedimentation rates. Comparison of several production sites in Maine (USA) coastal waters showed that for sites where oxygen demand exceeded supply benthic impacts were high and for sites where oxygen supply exceeded demand benthic impacts were low. These findings were summarized in the form of a predictive model that should be useful in siting salmon production facilities.