3 resultados para Recursive Partitioning and Regression Trees (RPART)

em DigitalCommons - The University of Maine Research


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We present a series of three-dimensional numerical models investigating the effects of metamorphic strengthening and weakening on the geodynamic evolution of convergent orogens that are constrained by observations from an exposed mid-crustal section in the New England Appalachians. The natural mid-crustal section records evidence for spatially and temporally variable mid-crustal strength as a function of metamorphic grade during prograde polymetamorphism. Our models address changes in strain rate partitioning and topographic uplift as a function of strengthening/weakening in the middle crust, as well as the resultant changes in deformation kinematics and potential exhumation patterns of high-grade metamorphic rock. Results suggest that strengthening leads to strain rate partitioning around the zone and suppressed topographic uplift rates whereas weakening leads to strain rate partitioning into the zone and enhanced topographic uplift rates. Deformation kinematics recorded in the orogen are also affected by strengthening/weakening, with complete reversals in shear sense occurring as a function of strengthening/weakening without changes in plate boundary kinematics.

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For over 3 centuries, diameter-limit harvesting has been a predominant logging method in the northeastern United States. Silvicultural theory asserts that such intensively selective harvesting can lead to genetic degradation. A decrease in softwood productivity has recently been reported in Maine - has a long history of dysgenic selection degraded the genetic resources of Maine softwoods, contributing to a decrease in growth and productivity? This study examines two aspects of potential implications of diameter-limit harvesting: effects on residual phenotypes of red spruce and impacts on genetic diversity of white pine. Radial growth of residual red spruce trees in stands experiencing 50 years of fixed diameter-limit harvesting was measured using annual increment rings and compared with residual red spruce trees in positive selection stands. Trees remaiaing after several rounds of diameter-limit harvesting exhibited sigdicantl y smaller radial sizes throughout their lives, and displayed significantly slower growth rates for the first 80 years of measured growth. These results strongly suggest that the largest and fastest-growing genotypes and their respective gene complexes determining good radial growth have been removed from the diameter-limit stand. Dysgenic selection can be observed in fixed diarneter-limit stands, resulting in a diminished genetic resource and decreased residual stand value. To examine more direct genetic implications of long-term diameter-limit harvesting, microsatellite DNA markers were implemented to study genetic diversity of eastern white pine in Maine. Three age groups of trees were studied: mature trees older than 200 years, juvenile trees 5-30 years old, and embryos. Trees were genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Overall genetic diversity levels of eastern white pine in Maine were extremely high, with an average observed heterozygosity of 0.762. Genetic differentiation was minimal among and between all three age groups, although an excess of heterozygotes was shown in the mature and juvenile groups that was not reflected in the embryo group, which actually had a slight heterozygote deficiency. Allele frequencies did not differ significantly between age groups, but did reveal more rare and low frequency alleles in the embryo groups than in the mature group. Overall, low frequency alleles comprise the largest portion of alleles in the sample population, with no common alleles evident overall. These results suggest that significant genetic degradation has either not occurred for white pine, or that the results of dysgenic selection have not yet emerged. It is clear, however, that selective harvesting could result in a loss of low frequency alleles, which are a primary reserve of evolutionary potential in a species. Implications of these studies affect industrial forestry, regional economics, and ecological concerns for the northeast. Long-term diameter-limit harvesting can lead to a degradation of residual phenotypes, and an overall decrease in stand quality. Potentially, a loss of low frequency, locally adapted alleles could result in a decrease of allelic richness and degradation of the regidnal genetic resource. Decreased genetic variation can lead to seriously limited evolutionary potential of species and ecosystems, particularly in rapidly changing environments. Based on these findings, I recommend a reassessment of any harvesting prescription that includes fixed diameter-limit removals, particularly for species that have low natural genetic diversity levels or a limited natural range, such as red spruce. Maintenance of a healthy genetic reserve can avoid effects of dysgenic harvesting.

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The present study sought to investigate the ways in which social anxiety impedes the development of romantic relationships across adolescence. Previous research has demonstrated a natural progression for romantic associations during adolescence in which teens transition from same- to mixed-sex peer groups, and finally to dyadic relationships with romantic partners (Connolly, Furman, Konarski, 2000; Dunphy, 1963). This model of development was the basis for the present investigation. Social anxiety was examined in terms of how it impacted affiliations at the same- and mixed sex peer group levels, and ultimately the formation of romantic relationships. This project involved administering a series of questionnaires and rating scales to students enrolled in the 9th through \2l grades. Participants included 457 adolescents (196 males, 261 females) recruited from public high schools in the state of Maine. The questionnaires assessed social anxiety, peer acceptance, heterosocial competence, gender composition of adolescent peer networks, dating history, and relationship quality with significant others in the adolescent's life. Higher levels of social anxiety were expected to be associated with impairment at each of these three levels. Given the proposed developmental progression, the effects of anxiety were theorized to be most pronounced within the older cohort of adolescents. Moreover, gender was expected to affect the pattern of results. Social anxiety is most prevalent among females (LaGreca, 1998; LaGreca & Lopez, 1998), who are also thought to progress along the proposed developmental trajectory more quickly than their male counterparts. Therefore, social anxiety was expected to impact the females to a greater degree at each of the three levels. Correlation coefficients, multivariate analyses of variance, and regression analyses were used to evaluate the data. Overall, despite some discrepant findings, the results supported the hypotheses. Social anxiety was affiliated with problems in the same-sex peer group, the mixed-sex clique, and, for older adolescents, romantic relationships. As expected, social anxiety affected females the most at each level. There seems to be a maladaptive pathway that socially anxious teens are following that is markedly different than their non-anxious counterparts.