Model-Based Estimates of Calanus Finmarchicus Abundance in the Gulf of Maine

Ocean observing systems and satellites routinely collect a wealth of information on physical conditions in the ocean. With few exceptions, such as chlorophyll concentrations, information on biological properties is harder to measure autonomously. Here, we present a system to produce estimates of the distribution and abundance of the copepod Calanus finmarchicus in the Gulf of Maine. Our system uses satellite-based measurements of sea surface temperature and chlorophyll concentration to determine the developmental and reproductive rates of C. finmarchicus. The rate information then drives a population dynamics model of C. finmarchicus that is embedded in a 2-dimensional circulation field. The first generation of this system produces realistic information on interannual variability in C. finmarchicus distribution and abundance during the winter and spring. The model can also be used to identify key drivers of interannual variability in C. finmarchicus. Experiments with the model suggest that changes in initial conditions are overwhelmed by variability in growth rates after approximately 50 d. Temperature has the largest effect on growth rate. Elevated chlorophyll during the late winter can lead to increased C. finmarchicus abundance during the spring, but the effect of variations in chlorophyll concentrations is secondary to the other inputs. Our system could be used to provide real-time estimates or even forecasts of C. finmarchicus distribution. These estimates could then be used to support management of copepod predators such as herring and right whales.

Model-Based Estimates of Right Whale Habitat Use in the Gulf of Maine

Balancing human uses of the marine environment with the recovery of protected species requires accurate information on when and where species of interest are likely to be present. Here, we describe a system that can produce useful estimates of right whale Eubalaena glacialis presence and abundance on their feeding grounds in the Gulf of Maine. The foundation of our system is a coupled physical-biological model of the copepod Calan us finmarchicus, the preferred prey of right whales. From the modeled prey densities, we can estimate when whales will appear in the Great South Channel feeding ground. Based on our experience with the system, we consider how the relationship between right whales and copepods changes across spatial scales. The scale-dependent relationship between whales and copepods provides insight into how to improve future estimates of the distribution of right whales and other pelagic predators.

The Effects of Social Anxiety on the Development of Romantic Relationships in Adolescence

The present study sought to investigate the ways in which social anxiety impedes the development of romantic relationships across adolescence. Previous research has demonstrated a natural progression for romantic associations during adolescence in which teens transition from same- to mixed-sex peer groups, and finally to dyadic relationships with romantic partners (Connolly, Furman, Konarski, 2000; Dunphy, 1963). This model of development was the basis for the present investigation. Social anxiety was examined in terms of how it impacted affiliations at the same- and mixed sex peer group levels, and ultimately the formation of romantic relationships. This project involved administering a series of questionnaires and rating scales to students enrolled in the 9th through \2l grades. Participants included 457 adolescents (196 males, 261 females) recruited from public high schools in the state of Maine. The questionnaires assessed social anxiety, peer acceptance, heterosocial competence, gender composition of adolescent peer networks, dating history, and relationship quality with significant others in the adolescent's life. Higher levels of social anxiety were expected to be associated with impairment at each of these three levels. Given the proposed developmental progression, the effects of anxiety were theorized to be most pronounced within the older cohort of adolescents. Moreover, gender was expected to affect the pattern of results. Social anxiety is most prevalent among females (LaGreca, 1998; LaGreca & Lopez, 1998), who are also thought to progress along the proposed developmental trajectory more quickly than their male counterparts. Therefore, social anxiety was expected to impact the females to a greater degree at each of the three levels. Correlation coefficients, multivariate analyses of variance, and regression analyses were used to evaluate the data. Overall, despite some discrepant findings, the results supported the hypotheses. Social anxiety was affiliated with problems in the same-sex peer group, the mixed-sex clique, and, for older adolescents, romantic relationships. As expected, social anxiety affected females the most at each level. There seems to be a maladaptive pathway that socially anxious teens are following that is markedly different than their non-anxious counterparts.