2 resultados para Holt-Winters
em DigitalCommons - The University of Maine Research
Resumo:
McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV, Ross Sea region, Antarctica) precipitation exhibits extreme seasonality in ion concentration, 3-5 orders of magnitude between summer and winter precipitation. To identify aerosol sources and investigate causes for the observed amplitude in concentration variability, four snow pits were sampled along a coast-Polar Plateau transect across the MDV. The elevation of the sites ranges from 50 to 2400 m and the distance from the coast from 8 to 93 km. Average chemistry gradients along the transect indicate that most species have either a predominant marine or terrestrial source in the MDV. Empirical orthogonal function analysis on the snow-chemistry time series shows that at least 57% of aerosol deposition occurs concurrently. A conceptual climate model, based on meteorological observations, is used to explain the strong seasonality in the MDV. Our results suggest that radiative forcing of the ice-free valleys creates a surface low-pressure cell during summer which promotes air-mass flow from the Ross Sea. The associated precipitating air mass is relatively warm, humid and contains a high concentration of aerosols. During winter, the MDV are dominated by air masses draining off the East Antarctic ice sheet, that are characterized by cold, dry and low concentrations of aerosols. The strong differences between these two air-mass sources create in the MDV a polar version of the monsoonal flow, with humid, warm summers and dry, cold winters.
Resumo:
A 700-year, high-resolution, multivariate ice core record from Dome Summit South (DSS) (66degrees46'S, 112degrees48'E; 1370 m), Law Dome, is used to investigate sea level pressure (SLP) variability in the region of East Antarctica. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals that the first EOF (LDEOF1) of the combined glaciochemical, oxygen isotope ratio, and accumulation rate record from DSS represents most of the variability in sea salt seen in the record. LDEOF1 is positively correlated (at least 95% confidence level) to instrumental June mean SLP across most of East Antarctica. Over the last 700 years, LDEOF1 levels at Law Dome were the highest during the nineteenth century, suggesting an increase in intensification of winter circulation during this period. The Law Dome DSS oxygen isotope ratio series also indicates that the nineteenth century had the coldest winters of any century in the record. In contrast, LDEOF1 levels were the lowest at Law Dome during the eighteenth century, suggesting a significant shift in the patterns and/or intensity of East Antarctic atmospheric circulation between the eighteenth and the nineteenth centuries. The LDEOF1 sea salt record is characterized by significant decadal-scale variability with a strong 25-year periodic structure.