State of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate System

This paper reviews developments in our understanding of the state of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate and its relation to the global climate system over the last few millennia. Climate over this and earlier periods has not been stable, as evidenced by the occurrence of abrupt changes in atmospheric circulation and temperature recorded in Antarctic ice core proxies for past climate. Two of the most prominent abrupt climate change events are characterized by intensification of the circumpolar westerlies (also known as the Southern Annular Mode) between similar to 6000 and 5000 years ago and since 1200-1000 years ago. Following the last of these is a period of major trans-Antarctic reorganization of atmospheric circulation and temperature between A. D. 1700 and 1850. The two earlier Antarctic abrupt climate change events appear linked to but predate by several centuries even more abrupt climate change in the North Atlantic, and the end of the more recent event is coincident with reorganization of atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific. Improved understanding of such events and of the associations between abrupt climate change events recorded in both hemispheres is critical to predicting the impact and timing of future abrupt climate change events potentially forced by anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Special attention is given to the climate of the past 200 years, which was recorded by a network of recently available shallow firn cores, and to that of the past 50 years, which was monitored by the continuous instrumental record. Significant regional climate changes have taken place in the Antarctic during the past 50 years. Atmospheric temperatures have increased markedly over the Antarctic Peninsula, linked to nearby ocean warming and intensification of the circumpolar westerlies. Glaciers are retreating on the peninsula, in Patagonia, on the sub-Antarctic islands, and in West Antarctica adjacent to the peninsula. The penetration of marine air masses has become more pronounced over parts of West Antarctica. Above the surface, the Antarctic troposphere has warmed during winter while the stratosphere has cooled year-round. The upper kilometer of the circumpolar Southern Ocean has warmed, Antarctic Bottom Water across a wide sector off East Antarctica has freshened, and the densest bottom water in the Weddell Sea has warmed. In contrast to these regional climate changes, over most of Antarctica, near-surface temperature and snowfall have not increased significantly during at least the past 50 years, and proxy data suggest that the atmospheric circulation over the interior has remained in a similar state for at least the past 200 years. Furthermore, the total sea ice cover around Antarctica has exhibited no significant overall change since reliable satellite monitoring began in the late 1970s, despite large but compensating regional changes. The inhomogeneity of Antarctic climate in space and time implies that recent Antarctic climate changes are due on the one hand to a combination of strong multidecadal variability and anthropogenic effects and, as demonstrated by the paleoclimate record, on the other hand to multidecadal to millennial scale and longer natural variability forced through changes in orbital insolation, greenhouse gases, solar variability, ice dynamics, and aerosols. Model projections suggest that over the 21st century the Antarctic interior will warm by 3.4 degrees +/- 1 degrees C, and sea ice extent will decrease by similar to 30%. Ice sheet models are not yet adequate enough to answer pressing questins about the effect of projected warming on mass balance and sea level. Considering the potentially major impacts of a warming climate on Antarctica, vigorous efforts are needed to better understand all aspects of the highly coupled Antarctic climate system as well as its influence on the Earth's climate and oceans.

A Model Study of the Circulation in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) and Its Adjacent Coastal Waters: 2. Sensitivity Experiments

The Princeton Ocean Model is used to study the circulation in the Pear River Estuary (PRE) and the adjacent coastal waters in the winter and summer seasons. Wong et al. [2003] compares the simulation results with the in situ measurements collected during the Pearl River Estuary Pollution Project (PREPP). In this paper, sensitivity experiments are carried out to examine the plume and the associated frontal dynamics in response to seasonal discharges and monsoon winds. During the winter, convergence between the seaward spreading plume water and the saline coastal water sets up a salinity front that aligns from the northeast to the southwest inside the PRE. During the summer the plume water fills the PRE at the surface and spreads eastward in the coastal waters in response to the prevailing southwesterly monsoon. The overall alignment of the plume is from the northwest to the southeast. The subsurface front is similar to that in the winter and summer except that the summer front is closer to the mouth and the winter front closer to the head of the estuary. Inside the PRE, bottom flows are always toward the head of the estuary, attributed to the density gradient associated with the plume front. In contrast, bottom flows in the shelf change from offshore in winter to onshore in summer, reflecting respectively the wintertime downwelling and summertime upwelling. Wind also plays an essential role in controlling the plume at the surface. An easterly wind drives the plume westward regardless winter or summer. The eastward spreading of the plume during the summer can be attributed to the southerly component of the wind. On the other hand, the surface area of the plume is positively proportional to the amount of discharge.