Evolution of 1996-1999 La Niña and El Niño Conditions Off the Western Coast of South America: A Remote Sensing Perspective

We present the evolution of oceanographic conditions off the western coast of South America between 1996 and 1999, including the cold periods of 1996 and 1998-1999 and the 1997-1998 El Niño, using satellite observations of sea level, winds, sea surface temperature (SST), and chlorophyll concentration. Following a period of cold SST and low sea levels in 1996, both were anomalously high between March 1997 and May 1998. The anomalies were greatest between 5 degrees S and 15 degrees S, although they extended beyond 40 degrees S. Two distinct peaks in sea level and SST occurred in June-July 1997 and December 1997 to January 1998, separated by a relaxation period (August-November) of weaker anomalies. Satellite winds were upwelling favorable throughout the time period for most of the region and in fact increased between November 1997 and March 1998 between 5 degrees S and 25 degrees S. Satellite-derived chlorophyll concentrations are available for November 1996 to June 1997 (Ocean Color and Temperature Sensor (OCTS)) and then from October 1997 to present (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS)). Near-surface chlorophyll concentrations fell from May to June 1997 and from December 1997 to March 1998. The decrease was more pronounced in northern Chile than off the coast of Peru or central Chile and was stronger for larger cross-shelf averaging bins since nearshore concentrations remained relatively high.

Dispersal Modeling of Fish Early Life Stages: Sensitivity with Application to Atlantic Cod in the Western Gulf of Maine

As an initial step in establishing mechanistic relationships between environmental variability and recruitment in Atlantic cod Gadhus morhua along the coast of the western Gulf of Maine, we assessed transport success of larvae from major spawning grounds to nursery areas with particle tracking using the unstructured grid model FVCOM (finite volume coastal ocean model). In coastal areas, dispersal of early planktonic life stages of fish and invertebrate species is highly dependent on the regional dynamics and its variability, which has to be captured by our models. With state-of-the-art forcing for the year 1995, we evaluate the sensitivity of particle dispersal to the timing and location of spawning, the spatial and temporal resolution of the model, and the vertical mixing scheme. A 3 d frequency for the release of particles is necessary to capture the effect of the circulation variability into an averaged dispersal pattern of the spawning season. The analysis of sensitivity to model setup showed that a higher resolution mesh, tidal forcing, and current variability do not change the general pattern of connectivity, but do tend to increase within-site retention. Our results indicate strong downstream connectivity among spawning grounds and higher chances for successful transport from spawning areas closer to the coast. The model run for January egg release indicates 1 to 19 % within-spawning ground retention of initial particles, which may be sufficient to sustain local populations. A systematic sensitivity analysis still needs to be conducted to determine the minimum mesh and forcing resolution that adequately resolves the complex dynamics of the western Gulf of Maine. Other sources of variability, i.e. large-scale upstream forcing and the biological environment, also need to be considered in future studies of the interannual variability in transport and survival of the early life stages of cod.