Sea Level Pressure Variability Over the Southern Indian Ocean Inferred from a Glaciochemical Record in Princess Elizabeth Land, East Antarctica

A 250-year, high-resolution, multivariate ice core record from LGB65 (70degrees50'07"S, 77degrees04'29"E; 1850 m asl), Princess Elizabeth Land (PEL), is used to investigate sea level pressure (SLP) variability over the southern Indian Ocean (SIO). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals that the first EOF (EOF1) of the glaciochemical record from LGB65 represents most of the variability in sea salt throughout the 250-year record. EOF1 is negatively correlated (95% confidence level and higher) to instrumental mean sea level pressure (MSLP) at Kerguelen and New Amsterdam islands, SIO. On the basis of comparison with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, strong correlations were found between sea-salt variations and a quasi-stationary low that lies to the north of Prydz Bay, SIO. Comparison with a 250-year-long summer transpolar index (STPI) inferred from sub-Antarctic tree ring records reveals strong coherency. Decadal-scale SLP variability over SIO suggests shifting of the polar vortex. Prominent decadal-scale deepening of the southern Indian Ocean low (SIOL) exists circa 1790, 1810, 1835, 1860, 1880, 1900, and 1940 A. D., continuously after the 1970s, and prominent weakening circa 1750, 1795, 1825, 1850, 1870, 1890, 1910, and 1955 A. D. The LGB65 sea-salt record is characterized by significant decadal-scale variability with a strong similar to21-year periodic structure (99.9% confidence level). The relationship between LGB65 sea salt and solar irradiance changes shows that this periodicity is possibly the solar Hale cycle ( 22 years).

A 200 Year Sulfate Record from Sixteen Antarctic Ice Cores and Associations With Southern Ocean Sea-Ice Extent

Chemistry data from 16, 50-115 m deep, sub-annually dated ice cores are used to investigate spatial and temporal concentration variability of sea-salt (ss) SO42- and excess (xs) SO42- over West Antarctica and the South Pole for the last 200 years. Low-elevation ice-core sites in western West Antarctica contain higher concentrations Of SO42- as a result of cyclogenesis over the Ross Ice Shelf and proximity to the Ross Sea Polynya. Linear correlation analysis of 15 West Antarctic ice-core SO42- time series demonstrates that at several sites concentrations Of ssSO(4)(2-) are higher when sea-ice (SIE) extent is greater, and the inverse for XSS04. Concentrations Of XSS04 from the South Pole site (East Antarctica) are associated with SIE from the Weddell region, and West Antarctic XSSO42- concentrations are associated with SIE from the Bellingshausen-Amundsen-Ross region. The only notable rise of the last 200 years in xsSO(4)(2-), around 1940, is not related to SIE fluctuations and is most likely a result of increased xsSO(4)(2-) production in the mid-low latitudes and/or an increase in transport efficiency from the mid-low latitudes to central West Antarctica. These high-resolution records show that the source types and source areas Of ssSO(4)(2-) and xsSO(4)(2-) delivered to eastern and western West Antarctica and the South Pole differ from site to site but can best be resolved using records from spatial ice-core arrays such as the International Trans-Antarctic Scientific Expedition (ITASE).

A High-Altitude Snow Chemistry Record from Amundsenisen, Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica

In this paper a detailed record of major ions from a 20 in deep firn core from Amundsenisen, western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, is presented. The core was drilled at 75degreesS, 2degrees E (2900 m.a.s.l.) during austral summer 1991/92. The following ions were measured at 3 cm resolution: Na+, Mg2+, Ca2+, Cl-, NO3-, SO42- and CH3SO3H (MSA). The core was dated back to 1865 using a combination of chemical records and volcanic reference horizons. The volcanic eruptions identified in this core are Mount Ngauruhoe, New Zealand (1974-75), Mount Agung, Indonesia (1963), Azul, Argentina (1932). and a broad peak that corresponds in time to Tarawera, New Zealand (1886), Falcon Island, South Shetlands, Southern Ocean (1885), and Krakatau, Indonesia (1883). There are no trends in any of the ion records, but the annual to decadal changes are large. The mean concentrations of the measured ions are in agreement with those from other high-altitude cores from the Antarctic plateau. At this core site there may be a correspondence between peaks in the MSA record and major El Nino-Southern Oscillation events.

State of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate System

This paper reviews developments in our understanding of the state of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate and its relation to the global climate system over the last few millennia. Climate over this and earlier periods has not been stable, as evidenced by the occurrence of abrupt changes in atmospheric circulation and temperature recorded in Antarctic ice core proxies for past climate. Two of the most prominent abrupt climate change events are characterized by intensification of the circumpolar westerlies (also known as the Southern Annular Mode) between similar to 6000 and 5000 years ago and since 1200-1000 years ago. Following the last of these is a period of major trans-Antarctic reorganization of atmospheric circulation and temperature between A. D. 1700 and 1850. The two earlier Antarctic abrupt climate change events appear linked to but predate by several centuries even more abrupt climate change in the North Atlantic, and the end of the more recent event is coincident with reorganization of atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific. Improved understanding of such events and of the associations between abrupt climate change events recorded in both hemispheres is critical to predicting the impact and timing of future abrupt climate change events potentially forced by anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Special attention is given to the climate of the past 200 years, which was recorded by a network of recently available shallow firn cores, and to that of the past 50 years, which was monitored by the continuous instrumental record. Significant regional climate changes have taken place in the Antarctic during the past 50 years. Atmospheric temperatures have increased markedly over the Antarctic Peninsula, linked to nearby ocean warming and intensification of the circumpolar westerlies. Glaciers are retreating on the peninsula, in Patagonia, on the sub-Antarctic islands, and in West Antarctica adjacent to the peninsula. The penetration of marine air masses has become more pronounced over parts of West Antarctica. Above the surface, the Antarctic troposphere has warmed during winter while the stratosphere has cooled year-round. The upper kilometer of the circumpolar Southern Ocean has warmed, Antarctic Bottom Water across a wide sector off East Antarctica has freshened, and the densest bottom water in the Weddell Sea has warmed. In contrast to these regional climate changes, over most of Antarctica, near-surface temperature and snowfall have not increased significantly during at least the past 50 years, and proxy data suggest that the atmospheric circulation over the interior has remained in a similar state for at least the past 200 years. Furthermore, the total sea ice cover around Antarctica has exhibited no significant overall change since reliable satellite monitoring began in the late 1970s, despite large but compensating regional changes. The inhomogeneity of Antarctic climate in space and time implies that recent Antarctic climate changes are due on the one hand to a combination of strong multidecadal variability and anthropogenic effects and, as demonstrated by the paleoclimate record, on the other hand to multidecadal to millennial scale and longer natural variability forced through changes in orbital insolation, greenhouse gases, solar variability, ice dynamics, and aerosols. Model projections suggest that over the 21st century the Antarctic interior will warm by 3.4 degrees +/- 1 degrees C, and sea ice extent will decrease by similar to 30%. Ice sheet models are not yet adequate enough to answer pressing questins about the effect of projected warming on mass balance and sea level. Considering the potentially major impacts of a warming climate on Antarctica, vigorous efforts are needed to better understand all aspects of the highly coupled Antarctic climate system as well as its influence on the Earth's climate and oceans.