Performance Evaluation of the New Connecticut Leading Employment Index Using Lead Profiles and BVAR Models

Dua and Miller (1996) created leading and coincident employment indexes for the state of Connecticut, following Moore's (1981) work at the national level. The performance of the Dua-Miller indexes following the recession of the early 1990s fell short of expectations. This paper performs two tasks. First, it describes the process of revising the Connecticut Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes. Second, it analyzes the statistical properties and performance of the new indexes by comparing the lead profiles of the new and old indexes as well as their out-of-sample forecasting performance, using the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) method. The new indexes show improved performance in dating employment cycle chronologies. The lead profile test demonstrates that superiority in a rigorous, non-parametric statistic fashion. The mixed evidence on the BVAR forecasting experiments illustrates the truth in the Granger and Newbold (1986) caution that leading indexes properly predict cycle turning points and do not necessarily provide accurate forecasts except at turning points, a view that our results support.

Psychiatrists' and Psychiatric APRNs' Views of the Adolescent Mental Health Nurse's Role In the Inpatient Setting

Current perceptions about nurses’ roles and responsibilities are examined in this study, specifically relating to adolescent inpatient MHNs. Psychiatrists and psychiatric advanced practice registered nurses (APRNs), who work with MHNs and have also published scholarly psychiatric articles, were contacted to request their participation in an anonymous survey hosted by SurveyMonkey.com. This research was conducted to examine the stereotypes that exist against nurses within the health care profession itself, as compared to the pre-existing stereotypes displayed by the media’s view of nurses. Due to investigator time constraints, only six subjects participated in the study. Analysis of survey responses revealed four overarching themes. First, MHNs are a critical component of the health care team, emerging as rigorous, independent leaders, although still classified as female and sociable. Second, MHNs complete a wide range of daily activities, many of which go unnoticed by observers, often resulting in mixed feelings regarding whether MHNs are given the respect and recognition deserved. Third, MHNs treat each patient as a person with unique thoughts, feelings, and physical make-up. Fourth, MHNs act as a coordinator of care between various health professionals to provide the patient with a holistic approach to healing.

Forecasting and Analyzing Economic Activity with Coincident and Leading Indexes: The Case of Connecticut

We develop coincident and leading employment indexes for the Connecticut economy. Four employment-related variables enter the coincident index while five employment-related variables enter the leading index. The peaks and troughs in the leading index lead the peaks and troughs in the coincident index by an average of 3 and 9 months. Finally, we use the leading index in vector-autoregressive (VAR) and Bayesian vector-autoregressive (BVAR) models to forecast the coincident index, nonfarm employment, and the unemployment rate.