The Time-Series Properties on Housing Prices: A Case Study of the Southern California Market

We examine the time-series relationship between housing prices in eight Southern California metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). First, we perform cointegration tests of the housing price indexes for the MSAs, finding seven cointegrating vectors. Thus, the evidence suggests that one common trend links the housing prices in these eight MSAs, a purchasing power parity finding for the housing prices in Southern California. Second, we perform temporal Granger causality tests revealing intertwined temporal relationships. The Santa Anna MSA leads the pack in temporally causing housing prices in six of the other seven MSAs, excluding only the San Luis Obispo MSA. The Oxnard MSA experienced the largest number of temporal effects from other MSAs, six of the seven, excluding only Los Angeles. The Santa Barbara MSA proved the most isolated in that it temporally caused housing prices in only two other MSAs (Los Angels and Oxnard) and housing prices in the Santa Anna MSA temporally caused prices in Santa Barbara. Third, we calculate out-of-sample forecasts in each MSA, using various vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error-correction (VEC) models, as well as Bayesian, spatial, and causality versions of these models with various priors. Different specifications provide superior forecasts in the different MSAs. Finally, we consider the ability of theses time-series models to provide accurate out-of-sample predictions of turning points in housing prices that occurred in 2006:Q4. Recursive forecasts, where the sample is updated each quarter, provide reasonably good forecasts of turning points.

The State of the University of Connecticut Health Center

Academic medical centers represent the integration of education, namely schools of medicine and dental medicine, research, often through a biomedical sciences graduate program, and a clinical experience, often supplied with an onsite hospital. These medical centers involve an intricate mix of individuals and personalities, making their operation a difficult and sometimes daunting task. The University of Connecticut Health Center (UCHC) financial struggles have created a new opportunity, an affiliation with Hartford Healthcare, which will equip the UCHC with a major tertiary care University Hospital. This thesis intends to provide an analysis of the challenges and potential benefits of such a partnership. It is focused on the impact to the medical school’s academic mission and involves a comprehensive look at John Dempsey Hospital (JDH) finances, governance, and employee matters. The research concludes that such an affiliation is necessary to change the healthcare landscape of the region and transform the UCHC into a top medical driver of the Connecticut economy. It intends to show how the status quo is no longer an acceptable option.