Forecasting and Analyzing Economic Activity with Coincident and Leading Indexes: The Case of Connecticut

We develop coincident and leading employment indexes for the Connecticut economy. Four employment-related variables enter the coincident index while five employment-related variables enter the leading index. The peaks and troughs in the leading index lead the peaks and troughs in the coincident index by an average of 3 and 9 months. Finally, we use the leading index in vector-autoregressive (VAR) and Bayesian vector-autoregressive (BVAR) models to forecast the coincident index, nonfarm employment, and the unemployment rate.

Economic Rights, Human Development Effort and Institutions

This paper focuses on the link between economic rights and institutions. Simple analysis of data is used to demonstrate countries' human development effort in advancing economics rights of the citizens. A country's human development effort is evaluated on the basis of the well-being of the poorest members of the society. An analysis of data reveals that there is a wide variation in countries' pro-poor stance. While it is accepted that positive rights are pro-poor, this paper argues that so too are negative economic rights and in fact the two are complements rather than substitutes. Classifying countries into human development income deficit and human development effort deficit, it is demonstrated that a large number of countries could achieve higher welfare levels for the poor if they improved on bother positive and negative economic rights. The paper attempts to explain variations in the observed commitment to economic rights by focusing on pro-poor institutions. The basic thesis advanced in the paper is that pro-poor policies are more likely to be implemented and sustained in those institutions where power is sufficiently diffused such that even the poor have leverage over policy outcomes. The paper focuses on how institutions impact on power diffusion and therefore the adoption of pro-poor growth and policies. The failure of countries to adopt pro-poor growth and policies is attributed to institutional failures manifested in concentration of power. The policy recommendations emanating from the analysis focus on institutional reforms to enhance power diffusion. These policies include enlarging the political space through democratization, strengthening institutions and capacity to fight corruption and improve transparency, and bringing the government closer to the people through appropriate design and implementation of decentralization schemes. Some recent examples of improvements in economic rights following power diffusion are provided.

The Level of Development and the Determinants of Productivity Growth

We examine the effects of technology on productivity growth by disaggregating total output into sectoral components, exploring the roles of investment and technology on productivity growth for countries in different income groups. We find that for low-income countries, investment is the most important determinant of productivity growth. While investment plays an important role in determining productivity growth in middle-income countries, additional effects resulting from technological change also emerge. Investment ceases to have a significant effect on productivity growth in high-income countries.

Economic Growth, Longevity, and the Epidemiological Transition

This paper integrates investments in health to a standard growth model where physical and human capital investments are the combined engines of growth. It shows the existence of two distinct health regimes separated by an 'Epidemiological Transition'. The various patterns of the transition identified in the epidemiological literature can be mapped into the model. The model also leads to the important hypothesis that the epidemiological transition may induce an economy to switch to a modern growth regime.

Fair Housing Enforcement and Changes in Discrimination between 1989 and 2000: An Exploratory Study

Using paired testing data from the 1989 and 2000 Housing Discrimination Studies (HDS) and data on fair housing enforcement activities during the 1990s in the corresponding metro areas, we investigate whether 1989-2000 changes in the metropolitan incidence of racial/ethnic discrimination correlate with fair housing enforcement activity during the 1990s. We found that higher amounts of state and local enforcement activity supported by HUD through its FHIP and FHAP programs (especially the amount of dollars awarded by the courts) were consistently associated with greater declines in discrimination against black apartment-seekers and home-seekers. The evidence does not support similar conclusions for housing market discrimination against Hispanics where the level of enforcement is much lower.