The Great Moderation and the Relationship between Output Growth and Its Volatility

This study examines the effect of the Great Moderation on the relationship between U.S. output growth and its volatility over the period 1947 to 2006. First, we consider the possible effects of structural change in the volatility process. In so doing, we employ GARCH-M and ARCH-M specifications of the process describing output growth rate and its volatility with and without a one-time structural break in volatility. Second, our data analyses and empirical results suggest no significant relationship between the output growth rate and its volatility, favoring the traditional wisdom of dichotomy in macroeconomics. Moreover, the evidence shows that the time-varying variance falls sharply or even disappears once we incorporate a one-time structural break in the unconditional variance of output starting 1982 or 1984. That is, the integrated GARCH effect proves spurious. Finally, a joint test of a trend change and a one-time shift in the volatility process finds that the one-time shift dominates.

Head and Neck Embryology: An Overview of Development, Growth and Defect in the Human Fetus

The purpose of this research is to explore the growth and formation of the head and neck from embryological development through puberty in order to understand how this knowledge is necessary for the development of dental and medical treatments and procedures. This is a necessary aspect of the medical and dental school curriculum at the University of Connecticut Health Center Schools of Medicine and Dental Medicine that needs to be incorporated into the current study of embryology for first-year students. Working with Dr. Christine Niekrash, D.M.D, this paper will cover the embryology and growth of the head, face and oral cavity. The goal of this project will be to organize the information and recognize the resources needed to successfully introduce this part of human physiology to the UConn dental and medical students. One area in which this information is particularly relevant is the facial and oral deformities that can occur throughout fetal development.

Cool-season turfgrass color and growth calibrated to leaf nitrogen

Tissue N analysis a tool available for N management of turfgrass. However, peer-reviewed calibration studies to determine optimum tissue N values are lacking. A field experiment with a mixed cool-season species lawn and a greenhouse experiment with Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis L.) were conducted across 2 yr, each with randomized complete block design. Treatments were N application rates between 0 and 587 kg N ha-1 yr-1. In the field experiment, clipping samples were taken monthly from May to September, dried, ground, and analyzed for total N. Clippings samples were collected one to two mowings after plots were fertilized. Linear plateau models comparing relative clipping yield, Commission Internationale de l' Eclairage hue, and CM1000 index to leaf N concentrations were developed. In the greenhouse experiment, clipping samples were taken every 2 wk from May to October and composited across sample dates for leaf N analysis. Color and clipping yields were related to leaf N concentrations using linear plateau models. These models indicated small marginal improvements in growth or color when leaf N exceeded 30 g kg-1, suggesting that a leaf N test can separate turf with optimum leaf N concentrations from turf with below optimum leaf N concentrations. Plateaus in leaf N concentrations with increasing N fertilizer rates suggest, however, that this test may be unable to identify sites with excess available soil N when turf has been mowed before tissue sampling.

Productivity Growth and Efficiency in Indian Banking: A Comparison of Public, Private, and Foreign Banks

India's public sector banks (PSBs) are compared unfavorably with their private sector counterparts, domestic and foreign. This comparison rests, for the most part, on financial measures of performance, and such a comparison provides much of the rationale for privatization of PSBs.In this paper, we attempt a comparison between PSBs and their private sector counterparts based on measures of productivity that use quantities of outputs and inputs. We employ two measures of productivity: Tornqvist and Malmquist total factor productivity growth. We attempt these comparisons over the period 1992-2000, comparing PSBs with both domestic private and foreign banks. Out of a total of four comparisons we have made, there are no differences in three cases, PSBs do better in two, and foreign banks in one. To put it differently, PSBs are seen to be at a disadvantage in only one out of six comparisons. It is difficult, therefore, to sustain the proposition that efficiency and productivity have been lower in public sector banks relative to their peers in the private sector.

Cross-Country Evidence on Output Growth Volatility: Nonstationary Variance and GARCH Models

This paper revisits the issue of conditional volatility in real GDP growth rates for Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Previous studies find high persistence in the volatility. This paper shows that this finding largely reflects a nonstationary variance. Output growth in the four countries became noticeably less volatile over the past few decades. In this paper, we employ the modified ICSS algorithm to detect structural change in the unconditional variance of output growth. One structural break exists in each of the four countries. We then use generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) specifications modeling output growth and its volatility with and without the break in volatility. The evidence shows that the time-varying variance falls sharply in Canada, Japan, and the U.K. and disappears in the U.S., excess kurtosis vanishes in Canada, Japan, and the U.S. and drops substantially in the U.K., once we incorporate the break in the variance equation of output for the four countries. That is, the integrated GARCH (IGARCH) effect proves spurious and the GARCH model demonstrates misspecification, if researchers neglect a nonstationary unconditional variance.

Technology Creation, Diffusion, and Growth Cycles

Standard macroeconomic models that assume an exogenous stochastic process for multifactor productivity offer the interpretation that recessions are the result of ''bad news'' (technological regress) and expansions are the result of ''good news'' (technological advancement). The view taken here is that both expansions and recessions are the result of ''good news'' in the sense that in both cases, aggregate production possibilities have increased. Recessions can be thought of as the transition from one technological frontier to the next.