Technology Creation, Diffusion, and Growth Cycles

Standard macroeconomic models that assume an exogenous stochastic process for multifactor productivity offer the interpretation that recessions are the result of ''bad news'' (technological regress) and expansions are the result of ''good news'' (technological advancement). The view taken here is that both expansions and recessions are the result of ''good news'' in the sense that in both cases, aggregate production possibilities have increased. Recessions can be thought of as the transition from one technological frontier to the next.